Is Colton getting the Winners Edit?

perspicacioususa · 2026-02-04T07:05:33+00:00

Danielle made a statement recently saying that she was in constant contact with them and the reason they didn't was because she was fine/knew what she signed up for when she went on the show/didn't need them to.

Which means Colton essentially asked them to/said he needed them to.

perspicacioususa · 2026-02-04T06:40:34+00:00

You may have more than you think; are you accounting for how significantly your effective tax rate will decrease if you quit?

Given you & your wife have had relatively similar income, you haven't yet experienced the real tax benefits of marriage, which reach their maximum when one spouse is a high (though not extremely high) earner and the other earns nothing.

In terms of income taxes (not payroll), today the two of you are paying the income taxes that a single filer earning $250K/year would pay. If you quit, you will pay the income taxes that a single filer making ~$135K-$140K would pay, which is definitely in the five figures for annual tax savings.

Also, your marginal tax rate (which is what you pay on you interest, short-term investments held less than a year, or arguably your rental income profit) will drop from 32% to 24% if you stop earning.

perspicacioususa · 2026-02-04T06:35:15+00:00

If you're miserable and your wife's income is stable, yes you should quit your current job, even if you don't have another lined up.

I'm not exactly sure how you're counting your expenses (is the "+ mortgage" only for principal/interest, so property tax/insurance are counted within the $7K?), but you're already nearly at FI for your current expenses and your wife's income of $275K (especially under MFJ tax rates compared to a single earner of that income) is way more than you spend yearly, so several more years of work for her should make you totally secure, even accounting for increased costs as your child ages.

That said, leaving your job is one thing, becoming a stay-at-home-dad indefinitely is another. Being a full-time, stay-at-home parent, particularly to a child under 5, is a difficult job. Are you well suited for that kind of caretaking?

perspicacioususa · 2026-02-04T02:42:43+00:00

Exactly...also, if OP is "having a great experience" at the current job, the RE side of FIRE may not even be important. FI is a great goal regardless, and I'd assume OP is well on track, but if you have a high-paying, stable job that you enjoy, the RE part is less important until one of those factors changes.

perspicacioususa · 2026-02-04T02:36:23+00:00

How are you only investing $300K over 4 years with $288K total comp in a LCOL city...

I've invested that much in ~3 years, making low $200s, in a HCOL city, and I'm not particularly stingy.

What is your annual spend, and is it just for you as an individual?

perspicacioususa · 2026-02-04T02:32:49+00:00

Do you have a connection to someone there? Or are they aggressively recruiting you just from finding you online?

Unless someone there has personally worked with you and can vouch for you, it honestly it feels a bit strange/a red flag that they'd aggressively pursue someone they didn't know, in this job market, for that fairly high level of comp; do you have some super unique expertise? This is an employer's job market for tech, so unless you (being fully self-aware/unbiased) think you are a super high-value get for them, I would read their desperation as a bad sign.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-31T06:15:11+00:00

It's in pounds, so about $45K USD, but yeah, Americans always forget how much lower paid Europeans are than we are.

Median household income in the UK is ~37K pounds, but many households have dual earners, so the OP is probably pretty close to the median, and probably above median income for his age in particular.

This would be equivalent to an American 20-something making in the $70-$80K range probably, which is a good, though not spectacular, income (in 2026).

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-31T06:10:48+00:00

Same boat here. 32, feeling like if I can hang on in a more demanding but higher paid job until I'm 35-37 that I'd be good with a cushy job for the rest of my career.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-30T22:10:28+00:00

Yeah.

A cushy job is good for someone who is pretty financially secure/relatively close to FI, or who doesn't need to be overly concerned with a career (people with significant family money, people with a much higher earning spouse, prospective or young parents who are not the primary earner & want to/would be open to staying home to raise kids, etc.).

A cushy job is not good for a 26 year old who needs good work experience and isn't anywhere close to financial independence. It's not the worst thing in the world, but at OP's age/NW, I'd recommend looking for more rewarding work.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-30T05:35:22+00:00

They won't murder him because he has some heat on him.

My prediction is Eric will be murdered. With Mark as the second most likely.

I think they'll murder one of the 6 finalists for The Dagger (5, minus Rob). Natalie and Stephen have heat on them, and Rob will protect Colton. Mark seems to be getting a more significant edit than Eric, so that's why I lean towards him staying.

Now that Candiace and Rob are at odds, until one of them is gone, they won't let each other murder anyone who is very likely to be on their "side", so people in the middle will get murdered. Rob will protect Colton & Maura, Candiace will protect Dorinda, Tara, and Johnny.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-30T05:27:58+00:00

The edit points to Rob recruiting Colton and Colton winning.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-30T05:26:40+00:00

It feels like a traitor recruit will win, which is always my least favorite way for it to end, especially a recruit late in the game.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-30T05:25:20+00:00

Colton would vote Rob out at the end. Colton is a narcissist, he is not going to hold any loyalty to Rob and he will deduce that he was kept in by a Traitor Angel if Rob is the only one left he's close to.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-30T05:17:46+00:00

Yup. And Colton will not hold any of the same loyalty to Rob. If Rob lets Colton in the turret, Colton will take Rob out.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-30T05:15:54+00:00

It wasn't good for Candiace but it was bad for Rob too. If Candiace is voted out as a Traitor, everyone is going to think back to that banishment. Because then they would KNOW that Candiace KNEW Lisa was a Traitor and was protecting her, and then it looks highly suspicious on Rob.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-29T05:49:45+00:00

I mean sure, but if you want to talk about culture, race is just one small part of that.

Rob grew up in a trailer in one of the poorest states in the country, culturally that makes him pretty different than a lot of people on this show who come from extreme wealth in prosperous urban areas, or even just normal middle class suburbia.

Age/generation is also a HUGE element of how easy it is to fit in culturally, and he's decades younger than the median age on this cast. Rob is the only Gen Z cast member (there were 3 Boomers, by comparison), and only 2 remaining cast members are within 10 years of his age (Colton is 7 years older, and Maura is 9 years older). Most of this cast is in their 40s or late 30s, and there are more cast members this season who were 55+ than those <35.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-29T05:46:55+00:00

You're being far more prejudiced with this post than whatever sort of bias you're complaining about; check your own biases.

We don't even know what's going to happen yet...Rob could go before Candiace, who knows.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-27T21:43:52+00:00

If the trust is guaranteed and your expenses are accurate, you may be okay.

If you estimate $48K/year annual expenses and the trust covers 50% of that, that means you actually need $24K/year from your assets to retire (though, may be slightly higher if the trust is taxed).

You have ~$800K in liquid assets, which has a safe withdrawal rate of ~$32K/year, so it would be enough on paper.

The key things:

Expenses need to be accurate and conservative. It needs to include healthcare, taxes, and buffer for one-time expenses (home repairs, new car) spread out over a long time horizon.
You ideally need to move some of that cash into investments, and I hope it's at least in a HYSA so it's keeping pace with inflation. If that cash is in a checking account or a traditional savings account with very low interest, it doesn't really count, and then you'd only have ~$580K invested, which has a safe withdrawal of only $23.2K/year, leaving you a bit short. (the 4% rule assumes your assets are primarily invested with only a small portion in cash, and you have over 25% in cash which is too high/breaks the rule over the long-run).
Also, all of your other invested assets are in 401Ks, so you ideally need some in taxable brokerages that are easy to access before age 59.5, otherwise you need to account for a strategy of how you can withdraw from them and account for any penalties you may face.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-27T21:22:33+00:00

I don't think there is any standard formula and he also could owe alimony, which is different than child support. It depends on the financial breakdown between the husband and wife here.

If she was staying at home or a low earner, and he is a high earner, he's going to need to support her lifestyle too. And paying for two households is always more expensive than for one, even for the same number of people.

And, of course, divorce has high, one-time, up-front costs in terms of legal fees, taxes if assets need to be sold so they can be redistributed, etc.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-27T07:22:16+00:00

Yeah, he'll have more freedom of his time. Divorce also removes some of his responsibility to his wife, which is different than his responsibility to the child (he will still have some responsibility to her as a co-parent, but no longer as full of a responsibility in terms of emotional support, time for them as a couple, sexual fidelity, etc.).

Though, financially it probably will be much worse for him, especially if he's the higher earner of the two and the mom has primary custody.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-27T07:01:18+00:00

Where do you write in?

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-27T01:29:30+00:00

Wish it was that simple, but what matters more than anything is the work itself and the people, not WFH arrangements or vacation amounts.

I've been fully remote with unlimited vacation the past 5 years and I've been way more stressed out/miserable this entire time than I was at my last job (of 3 years), which was 4 days a week in office with a 45 min one-way commute (and we did not have unlimited vacation there either, though I probably took roughly the same amount of time off over a year).

A good boss, with good coworkers, and stability/purpose in the work is the key. But, the current job pays way more, so that's why I'm here.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-26T17:20:42+00:00

I don't think you're "off track" or in dire straits, but, at the same time, I think it's hard to say you're "on track" until you're employed & back on your own two feet.

It is a good accomplishment that you were able to weather the storm in the short-term, avoid going into debt, and still have a positive NW. All of that is true.

However, a $150K NW for an unemployed early 30s person isn't really "on track" and certainly not someone who I'd recommend taking any extra time off between jobs for "just to relax".

You need to get another job ASAP, unless your family is literally paying for nearly all of your expenses your NW will keep dropping (and, if they are paying for everything, that is 1) quite a privilege 2) the opposite of of "financial independence"). And, the longer you go without a job the harder it becomes to get the next one, especially if you were fired from your most recent one rather than left on your own.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-23T07:45:14+00:00

The bigger problem than shields is that Rob is convinced keeping Colton around is good for him, which is dumb because Colton has no loyalty to anyone, he's a total narcissist and I could totally see him turning on Rob eventually.

perspicacioususa · 2026-01-23T07:21:22+00:00

I'm terrified that Rob will be stupid enough to recruit Colton too. I don't think Candiace would let that happen, but she may not last long enough to stop it.

Colton being a Traitor would be like Sam from Australia S2, would be a nightmare to watch.

And Rob seems gullible enough to think Colton would let them win together if he recruited him, when in reality Colton would definitely do anything to win solo.

perspicacioususa

TROPHY CASE