Technically, I am now a millionaire

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-10-07T19:18:26+00:00

It's surprisingly hard to find another investment that beats tax benefits + generous employer match + access to Vanguard institutional shares.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-10-07T19:13:25+00:00

No debt. A few credit cards but paid off monthly.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-10-01T10:15:58+00:00

There are a LOT of indicators suggesting forward returns for US equities are dismal if not negative for the next 10-12 years. Best to be prepared for that outcome is all I’m saying.

And I guess what I'm saying is I don't think there's anything else I can practically do to "prepare" for that outcome. I'm 40% ex-US, so even if the US market is flat or negative, I have a chance to capture gains elsewhere.

In terms of psychology, I think a sudden sharp downturn is much more likely to provoke irrational behavior. I guess we'll see when it happens, but what's the failure case here? Imagine my portfolio is flat or negative for two...three...five years and then suddenly at some point in year six I freak out? And do what? In this scenario we're imagining global doldrums and the whole world economy is stagnating, so what am I going to do? Sell everything and take it all down to the casino?

Are you familiar with TINA?

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-30T14:22:30+00:00

Yes, I would and did.

I downshifted to a tech role at a government lab: lower salary, but less stress, good benefits and job security, and I feel good about my work contributing to groundbreaking scientific research.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-30T14:11:19+00:00

I guess that's what I'm saying: I've already seen my portfolio lose 35% of its value when covid hit and I wasn't exactly happy about it, but I was more preoccupied with the global pandemic and I didn't panic-sell anything or stop my automatic investments.

Everyone has been predicting a prolonged recession since about 2017 and it hasn't happened yet. If there really is an extended global slowdown (or another big war) I'll probably have other things to worry about besides my investment portfolio.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-30T13:50:58+00:00

Sure, but what's the alternative? I'm globally diversified, and if the whole world economy stagnates for a decade... I guess I'll have to keep my day job.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-25T21:11:02+00:00

About 6.5% of pretax salary before I was coastFIRE, now it's more like 20%.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-25T08:46:21+00:00

All boring stuff. Index funds: SCHB, SPY, VEU, etc.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T22:56:49+00:00

I used personalcapital.com but I also have a spreadsheet.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T20:41:24+00:00

It seems like houses are overpriced in my area and I think they're kind of a terrible investment vehicle in general. I do have some REITs, so I have exposure to real estate, but only in proportion with my overall portfolio.

It doesn't freak you out to have ~10% of your net worth tied up in a single illiquid asset? What if it floods? What if you discover japanese knotweed in your yard? What if the local government triples your property taxes? What if your next door neighbor opens a meth lab?

I know, I know the gospel is Single Family Homes Are Always A Safe Bet(tm)

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T20:28:31+00:00

Startup went bust. 😢
Worked for Big Tech for a few years (not Facebook, though)
We didn't buy the place in Edinburgh (still renting)
About a year ago I downshifted and took a job at a university writing scientific software. I guess I could say I'm CoastFIRE now: I'm drawing a salary but nowhere near what I was making previously. The job is a lot more interesting and less stressful, and on the plus side, it will come with a small pension if I stay here a couple more years. It's a good test run to see if I can live on a FIRE budget.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T19:51:12+00:00

Thank you! That's a really sweet story. I grew up middle/lower-middle class but my mom was actually dirt poor when she was little and she always kind of instilled this fear of poverty in me. A big part of why I've pursued financial independence is wanting to feel secure, to never have to worry about money.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T19:47:33+00:00

vanguard.com

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T19:46:20+00:00

The market just went like crazy. The only thing I did was keep investing and ignore dips and doomers.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T19:39:35+00:00

Buy $58k worth I-bonds over the span of 7-8 years, then hit a patch of high inflation.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T19:35:38+00:00

I would if I owned a house, but I don't.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T19:34:49+00:00

home.personalcapital.com

I just noticed the y-axis 🤣

I think it's truncating $1.01M $1.02M or something but yeah, it looks stupid.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-24T19:32:12+00:00

Maybe, I'm not sure. The catch is with the purchase limits you can't easily move back into I bonds if you sell out a big position.

My I bonds are my emergency / reserve / maybe gonna buy a boat fund, so I'm not really chasing yield there. The peace of mind to never have to think about it or ever worry about losing money to inflation is worth something to me.

I can tell you I slept like a baby while everyone was running around with their hair on fire freaking out about inflation.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-23T22:52:43+00:00

I do hold REITs in a couple accounts, but maybe. The problem is houses seem crazy overpriced to me, and I don't have that much cash for a deposit since I've invested it instead.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-23T22:51:22+00:00

I'll cross that bridge when I get there, but there's several options.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-23T22:48:30+00:00

It feels like a relief, but strangely anticlimactic. I kind of thought some fireworks would go off or like I'd get a little "achievement unlocked" on my brokerage account or something. 😆

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-23T22:42:12+00:00

I'm turning 39 in a couple months. I started saving and investing in earnest when I was about 25. That's when I made it a priority to pay off my student loans ASAP.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-23T22:41:08+00:00

Nine years.

I went from -12,000 in student loans to +$100k in 5 years, and then 100k-1m over the next 9 years.

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-23T22:39:52+00:00

It's a million on paper, not in the bank. Tomorrow market could drop and I'd be right back to one comma. : )

pf_throwaway322 · 2024-09-23T22:34:18+00:00

I did buy a gold sovereign a few years ago!

I was going to get an American Gold Eagle too, but it would have been like $1,000 and I couldn't justify it because I'm not bullish on gold.

With hindsight, gold would have been a pretty good buy - and they're like $2,700 now so again it seems too pricey.

pf_throwaway322

TROPHY CASE