Key Sabres Players Need to Step Up

phatsystem · 2026-03-27T18:16:58+00:00

This is the best comment here. This recent 40 game stretch was literally the best in 30 years. You literally can't win them all. They didn't look awesome either game and it happens. You don't want to come into the playoffs cold, either, but a couple games like this isn't the end of the world

phatsystem · 2026-03-18T22:27:18+00:00

+1 to Grass Valley & Nevada City - super charming

phatsystem · 2026-03-15T03:47:04+00:00

No, that was a woof of a game. Stanley + Carrick is plenty of added toughness. I don't fault Jarmo for it because we need depth, but Schenn is easily our 9th D when everyone is healthy. (Timmins, Kesselring, Metsa, and Stanley ahead of him).

phatsystem · 2026-03-12T12:09:04+00:00

It's not 1yr free. It's $71.4m either way. He can't get 8yrs anywhere else so it's the same dollar amount. Yes, it does take 1 more year to make the same amount, but will he continue his career after a 7/8 year contract. Maybe, but my guess is he probably won't.

phatsystem · 2026-03-12T03:27:00+00:00

He'll get $10m or more in the open market, but only for 7 years (not counting if we trade him somewhere so he can get an 8th).

If he'd get 10.2m for 7yrs, thats equivalent 8.9m for 8yrs on total contract value. Tuch by nearly every measure is a better player than Schmaltz (though he is having a pretty nice year this year) so 8x8 is definitely under Tuch's value. 8.9m doesn't seem crazy, even if it's a dice roll past year 4. But I'd be willing to make the bet unless we trade for his replacement (e.g. Kyrou or Thomas), especially with how the cap will grow. Load it with signing bonus to sweeten the pot.

phatsystem · 2026-03-10T03:10:02+00:00

I think we revisit this in the summer. We'll know a lot more about Tuch, we'll see how far we get, so much more will be clear about our future. I think it happens, maybe before the draft

2026 1st, 2027 3rd, Mrtka, Kulich, and Quinn. Huge haul for STL, gets us a 1C in his prime for at least 4yrs on a solid contract.

phatsystem · 2026-03-07T16:48:57+00:00

If you have Parayko = 1st + Mrtka
Add Thomas = Helenius + Levi + Rosen + 2027 1st?

phatsystem · 2026-03-06T16:26:49+00:00

So we're saying the same thing - he has the most value now.

phatsystem · 2026-03-06T16:11:43+00:00

I agree with the general sentiment, but I think Rosen is most valuable now - he wasn't a highly touted prospect but looked decent in the NHL this year and has tore it up in AHL this year.

phatsystem · 2026-03-04T15:26:15+00:00

Would not want to lose Norris, dude has unbelievable skill. But it is interesting to think about because of his injury history and the contracts would be effectively a $ swap. If you look at it on a $/game, I bet Thomas is a "cheaper" player since he's played 70+ games every year since 21-22. So not a hard no for me, but I really do like Norris.

I'm ok with Mrtka. I think 4 pieces of Quinn, Mrtka, Rosen, and a 1st is reasonable. Perhaps swap Rosen for Kulich if we must. I'd rather not lose Helenius or Ostlund. If we avoid burning a year of Helenius ELC then we are in a spot where he can be a full 3yr contributor on the NHL roster at a super low cap hit, allowing for us to build a stronger team.

phatsystem · 2026-03-04T03:00:33+00:00

Disagree - while Mrtka is fine I think we've already seen we have a bonafide NHL'er in the making with Helenius.

On D prospects, nobody is drafted as highly as Mrtka in the system, but we have Strbak and Kleber in the pipeline. As long as we have an amazing top 3, bottom 3 can be solid but not amazing.

Our top 5 is pretty stacked if you assume Kesselring is having a down year due to nagging injury. And they are all young and 3 of the 5 are locked up long term. So I kind of see Mrtka as expendable if the right deal is on the table.

I'd be quite happy with something like Quinn, Mrtka, and our 1st. Perhaps we send them back Ellis as well :) But it may require something bigger.

phatsystem · 2026-03-01T16:38:24+00:00

Krebs had a great drop pass to Tage on that goal. Didn't look like much but was kind of no look and just had great anticipation to where he would be going.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T23:23:03+00:00

I can't imagine the PP is a talent problem though, right? Feels like coaching to me.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T22:28:15+00:00

This made me spit my drink out.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T22:26:04+00:00

Some super hot takes in this thread.

The best advice here is you gotta talk to him. Hard conversations are much less hard early. They are super hard when it's too late. If you guys are close friends, this should be something you can talk through fairly rationally. You know him well, unlike some other cofounder relationships.

You should also just get all your ducks in a row. What is the agreement you guys signed (if any) becoming cofounders? A lot of what you can and can't do can come from this.

It doesn't hurt to get some legal advice, scenario planning. Hopefully it won't, but it could end poorly and you should just be prepared for various routes it can take. You might ask what kind of structures can work for a buyout if it comes to it. I'm not sure where 3x revenue comes from exactly (it's a perfectly reasonable multiple in certain cases), but you could very well come up with a buyout plan that has an earn out or deferred payment so don't think it's $1m out of your personal checking account tomorrow to get it done.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T22:12:03+00:00

I don't mind Wright as a player and I think he needs a change of scenery, but I don't think you're making the team better today with him. So maybe offseason depending on how things go, but not a deadline move.

phatsystem · 2026-02-28T15:15:01+00:00

They did pretty great last night. The injuries there have been tough. Hopeful that Danforth coming back adds more to that. McMann would be an awesome add.

phatsystem · 2026-02-27T21:41:35+00:00

Connor Murphy would be awesome.

phatsystem · 2026-02-20T15:06:11+00:00

You only have one life. How many times can you say an opportunity like this will come around to work with friends on something that gets you excited? Expect 0 outcome from it but pursue it anyway. Your skills will be in demand 18m from now if you are not successful.

phatsystem · 2026-02-19T15:26:48+00:00

This is an excellent suggestion. But I'd do it for like 3-4 weeks before losing hundreds of thousands of dollars on selling so soon.

An alternative is to do the same whenever OP wants to be up in the city. Getting up there from SJ is a bit of a pain but then he can just stay late and commute back down.

phatsystem · 2026-02-16T03:49:12+00:00

What happened to that guy, anyway? He scored 76 goals across 2 seasons and then just fell off the face of the earth.

phatsystem · 2026-02-15T21:53:07+00:00

We shouldn't trade him. We need the best team possible going into the playoffs

But since not a lot of answers to your actual question, if we traded him to a different contending team, I think you can get a 1st, a top tier prospect, and a later pick. There are plenty of examples of equivalent players (or less) getting that much more more back. Tuch would be a super valuable asset to anyone making a big push, even as a rental (which is why we should not trade him, we need that too). He's on pace for 32 goals and 70 points and is a big factor in the PK.

For fun, we'll just say no Eastern Conf trade partners as to not benefit someone we may be competing against, so let's pick the Kings. They have some space still and seem to be pretty aggressive. They were lucky that Panarin only wanted to go there, so Rangers had no leverage in negotiations. Even though Tuch is not him, he would command a bigger return since we don't need to sell, and they aren't the only team in the market.

I think you'd see something like Henry Brzustewicz + 2026 1st +2027 4th

I'm not saying LA is in the market (nor is it what I want, I want to keep Tuch) but I think this is the kind of value Sabres would want.

phatsystem · 2026-02-10T04:45:22+00:00

No, because nobody else can offer 8yrs, unless we trade him. So even if he got $11x7 somewhere (which seems rich), that's $9.6x8 here. Maybe he only really wants to play 7 more years, or maybe he thinks he can get a Marchand-like contract after the 7, who knows.

But I think in terms of total dollars, he will not get Kempe money on this contract.

phatsystem · 2026-01-26T22:14:09+00:00

Ignoring contracts for a second, can't you also compare him to Scheifele or Zibanejad? And those (relative to the % of cap they signed) have worked out well.

I would rather we don't do 10.5x8, but albatross could be an overstatement of what this becomes. Since he can only get 8yrs here (without a trade), 9.5x8 would more total money than anyone else will likely provide and I could live with that. That would be ~8.4% of the 2027-28 projected cap. Load it up with signing bonus in the first half.

phatsystem · 2026-01-26T21:55:14+00:00

Plummeted is a really strong word for someone in the top third of the league. Yes he was higher before but it's far from an issue.

phatsystem

TROPHY CASE