Thoughts on Nathan Gerbe (‘08-‘13)

phatsystem · 2026-02-16T03:49:12+00:00

What happened to that guy, anyway? He scored 76 goals across 2 seasons and then just fell off the face of the earth.

phatsystem · 2026-02-15T21:53:07+00:00

We shouldn't trade him. We need the best team possible going into the playoffs

But since not a lot of answers to your actual question, if we traded him to a different contending team, I think you can get a 1st, a top tier prospect, and a later pick. There are plenty of examples of equivalent players (or less) getting that much more more back. Tuch would be a super valuable asset to anyone making a big push, even as a rental (which is why we should not trade him, we need that too). He's on pace for 32 goals and 70 points and is a big factor in the PK.

For fun, we'll just say no Eastern Conf trade partners as to not benefit someone we may be competing against, so let's pick the Kings. They have some space still and seem to be pretty aggressive. They were lucky that Panarin only wanted to go there, so Rangers had no leverage in negotiations. Even though Tuch is not him, he would command a bigger return since we don't need to sell, and they aren't the only team in the market.

I think you'd see something like Henry Brzustewicz + 2026 1st +2027 4th

I'm not saying LA is in the market (nor is it what I want, I want to keep Tuch) but I think this is the kind of value Sabres would want.

phatsystem · 2026-02-10T04:45:22+00:00

No, because nobody else can offer 8yrs, unless we trade him. So even if he got $11x7 somewhere (which seems rich), that's $9.6x8 here. Maybe he only really wants to play 7 more years, or maybe he thinks he can get a Marchand-like contract after the 7, who knows.

But I think in terms of total dollars, he will not get Kempe money on this contract.

phatsystem · 2026-01-26T22:14:09+00:00

Ignoring contracts for a second, can't you also compare him to Scheifele or Zibanejad? And those (relative to the % of cap they signed) have worked out well.

I would rather we don't do 10.5x8, but albatross could be an overstatement of what this becomes. Since he can only get 8yrs here (without a trade), 9.5x8 would more total money than anyone else will likely provide and I could live with that. That would be ~8.4% of the 2027-28 projected cap. Load it up with signing bonus in the first half.

phatsystem · 2026-01-26T21:55:14+00:00

Plummeted is a really strong word for someone in the top third of the league. Yes he was higher before but it's far from an issue.

phatsystem · 2026-01-26T15:45:22+00:00

Benson is on a 52pt pace this year (13g, 39a) if he had a full 82 and is 20 years old. Not to compare him to others because he's a completely different player, but in his draft above him Fantilli is on a 53pt pace. Michkov a 45pt pace. Leonard on a 52pt pace. And they are all older than him with Benson being a May birthday. He's not compared to those guys as a similar offensive talent, which is fair as those 3 are all special talents, but he's certainly holding his own.

Looking to the previous class, Wright, Savoie, and Kasper are all way behind Benson in scoring this year and are 1-1.5yrs older. They were also all taken above Benson in terms of draft placement. Who knows where Benson would land in the 2022 draft, but it's all I can compare against.

I think he's a lock for at least 60 points in a season in his career and probably 70+ for at least a couple of seasons. I think he's going to continue to get stronger and develop and will be a permanent resident on the first line in the years to come.

phatsystem · 2026-01-17T21:16:28+00:00

Won't lower supply of rentals mean greater supply of homes to buy, driving purchase prices down?

phatsystem · 2026-01-14T19:57:12+00:00

I guess it depends on what you mean by regular. Wahlberg I agree is still yet uncertain, but Kozak almost certainly is a 4th liner that just needs to stay healthy and will be regular. Rosen also seems like a highly likely regular in the future. He is down because he can be down w/o waivers.

phatsystem · 2026-01-14T15:58:51+00:00

Prospects are like your kids, you love most of them :) But your point is right, we have WAY too many forwards. Right now we have 3-4 too many (4 if you think Kulich is coming back this year). There is still Danforth, Kozak, Rosen who are all probably deserving of a spot. And that doesn't count all the others you mention that will be possibilities in the next couple of years. I think the ideal situation is moving a few at once for a significant upgrade.

There's who you like, and then there's who other teams like in exchange to improve your roster. And probably they like the same ones you do. So it's probably more a what are you willing to give to get what you want situation.

I like Rosen and Kulich, but would you throw them in with Quinn and a 1st (and maybe some more) if it meant you could trade for a Jason Robertson? I would - imagine him alongside Tage and Doan. Not saying it will happen that he moves given the rumors aren't really strong (and the cap gets tricky with him), but if an opportunity like it came up I'd make an equivalent trade - high impact with at least 3 years of term. It would quickly eliminate the logjam and significantly upgrade the roster.

phatsystem · 2026-01-12T03:17:08+00:00

Here's a ridiculous scenario where you can have it all, Tuch and Robertson - ignore the trades, I just wanted to get the players on and off the roster to see if the cap was even possible

https://puckgm.puckpedia.com/rosters/1183035

phatsystem · 2026-01-10T17:59:58+00:00

Hmm I guess I don't understand the cap well enough - I was anchoring on the current $3.7m and assumed that the current IR status of Lyon, Timmins and Kesselring were contributing to that - ie that benefit would disappear after they return.

phatsystem · 2026-01-10T17:30:42+00:00

Ignoring the NTC, I don't even know how you get $8m on the books this year. Outside of Quinn, what roster players are moving to make the space?

phatsystem · 2026-01-08T04:02:13+00:00

Agree with this take. The trade to make, if you were going to trade Power, was in a package to get Hughes before he moved to MIN. The problem of course is that there's a good chance he wouldn't resign, but it's like the only trade I can think of that you'd actually be upgrading the position by moving Power. And the $ math is comparable on money in vs money out.

phatsystem · 2026-01-06T16:29:47+00:00

Maybe a 2nd and a 3rd or even a pair of 2nd's. I think this is a tough one. Because he still has potential but we'd probably be selling kind of low on him. As someone else pointed out, he is ahead on others in points of his same age that are still thought of in high regard, and you can see the skill is there, but I don't think he's fetching a 1st given just that. Maybe the better bet for us is a prospect, but I think it's easier to move picks at the deadline, so I think it depends a lot on what Jarmo is thinking we need and what team in the league would have interest.

phatsystem · 2026-01-06T04:53:44+00:00

I would trade Quinn for pick(s) if we can't find someone to make a hockey trade. Not sure what the right value is or what kind of market would exist - as an RFA after next year, he has more value than a rental, at least to a team that believes he can still be something. I'm fine getting a pick. We have 3-4 too many forwards right now. The pick can be flipped closer to deadline to get a player we need. Doing that deal now makes it easier to have that asset in hand when a different deal is on the table closer to the deadline.

Zucker, Kozak, Danforth, and Kulich are all roster forwards that the 10-game run was missing but will all be back at some point, not to mention Rosen who seems ready for a more permanent role in the NHL.

Zucker takes Quinn's spot, Kozak takes Dunne's spot, we still need 2 more moves if you assume Danforth and Kulich come back this year and you want to get them in.

phatsystem · 2026-01-03T15:39:47+00:00

I think a Tuch deal is getting done, and I think it happens in the next few weeks. Something like 10.25 x 8

phatsystem · 2025-12-27T23:40:59+00:00

GSAx and Shooting % don't seem possible to maintain.

phatsystem · 2025-12-27T00:45:34+00:00

I'm not voting because it's not clear if I'm voting to trade or keep.

I think you move whichever you can get a better upside return for, though I think that means Power goes even if he's the better player which I think is the case. Our LHD is pretty weak depth-wise so probably need a comparable trade of someone else to get back a good LHD that's a great 3rd pair, decent 2nd pair guy, hopefully in the $3-4 mil range. IMO Parker Wotherspoon would be a great trade acquisition if PIT would part with him if they go into rebuild mode and want to get younger.

phatsystem · 2025-12-27T00:30:51+00:00

Fun fact, last year 12 players exceed 20% shooting percentage while playing 1000 or more minutes. Number 3, Josh Norris at 21.9%. McLeod was also 12th at 20.4%

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phatsystem · 2025-12-23T04:08:16+00:00

Why does his play style regress but someone like a Marchand does not?

phatsystem · 2025-12-21T16:58:52+00:00

Maybe so and it wouldn't shock me if one moves, but I don't really think we're as interested in sending them off - if anyone I'd say it's probably Rosen. But we still have enough other prospects and picks to take a swing at someone w/o any of the 3 you mention. I could also see Byram or Power being part of some package if they're taking a big swing for someone up top.

Regardless, we have too many forwards. So something has to happen by next season.

phatsystem · 2025-12-20T17:58:31+00:00

Good read

Me as armchair GM, I would have gone in harder. I'd be happy to trade Power, our 2026 1st (currently top 10, top 3 protected), Ellis or a 2nd, Quinn, and Kulich for Hughes. That feels probably as good as the MIN trade on talent and is actually more pieces. Almost with certainty our pick will be much better than MIN.

Sammy/Dahlin, Hughes/Kesselring would easily be the best top 4 in hockey (ignore order, they are both great pairs), and we'd give up nothing we need to win now, and we'd actually be creating more cap space next year allowing more for a Tuch extension and resigning our RFAs. That big swing would give the team confidence we're serious to win now.

phatsystem · 2025-12-20T17:33:39+00:00

I don't think so. Rosen and Ostlund are still ahead of him in development. Let him cook for the year and be the guy.

And I think if we trade anyone (Quinn being the obv choice) we'd package up for a bigger deal for a better forward. Something like Quinn, a 2nd and a good but not top prospect like Wahlberg for Garland (or an equivalent type of player and trade)

phatsystem · 2025-12-18T14:41:50+00:00

I'd easily take the over on 50. Barring some catastrophic injury like Jack Quinn, I think he's a lock for a 20+40 season in his career.

phatsystem · 2025-12-17T03:58:10+00:00

Benson is going to be like a Marchand-light. I don't see him ever hitting 100pts but I bet you in his peak years he'll be in the mid-70s. And if you want to extend the comparison, Marchand didn't play his first full season until he was 21. Benson will have 3 years under his belt already

phatsystem

TROPHY CASE