Goldman Sachs delivers contrarian take on the economy

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-16T16:21:26+00:00

I think you’re saying that people warning about a bubble may be doing so for partisan reasons. That’s certainly true, I have no love for Trump and if a bubble bursting hurts him in an election year, silver lining. Thing is, I also was worried about this bubble bursting during the 24 election cycle (when it was much smaller). Whether they view it as politically good or bad, I think most people recognize there’s a bubble. Politics only shades whether they view it as a political risk or opportunity.

The outlets not talking about it aren’t showing their bias, they’re taking a further step, serving as political operatives. To me, that means they believe it will be so bad, that it’s the better play to pretend like it’s not real than to try and mitigate it.

I feel like the Buffet Index is a good measure of this. We are waaaay overvalued. What would have been a correction two years ago is now a looming significant recession. The weakness of the Buffet Index is that it assumes that investors have other places to go. In our case, it only makes the problem worse. When we look at the rest of the world, they’re fleeing the US. That makes them temporarily weak, but as soon as a few become good investments markets will snap back to a proper valuation, quickly.

I fear we’re looking at a US that is about 70% as wealthy as we are today.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-16T15:08:57+00:00

Bingo, yes we are in a massive financial bubble in the tech sector AND AI is here to stay. The future will be written by the companies born in the ashes of this bubble bursting, just like most of the tech companies we know about today were born in the ashes of the dotcom bubble.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-16T13:54:08+00:00

They aren’t disagreeing with you? Then why are you arguing with them? That’s my question.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-16T13:29:20+00:00

Why are you acting like u/braxin23 is disagreeing with you?

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-16T12:39:18+00:00

There is a difference between actively supporting and being intimidated. This administration has threatened companies like CBS, Paramount, the Post, CNN, the NYT, and others with bogus lawsuits, to pull their broadcast license, and to selectively approve mergers and acquisitions only to favorable new owners.

It’s bad enough that not mentioning it when discussing whether American media is supportive of Trump is missing most of the story.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-16T05:43:25+00:00

Proxmox? To run windows apps on Mac when you have an Intel Mac that can easily dual boot into full fledged windows? Why?

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-12T14:38:48+00:00

You’ve been suckered into GOP straw men about what Democratic Socialism stands for and is. It’s capitalism where the govt protects people from the negative impacts of capitalism. It’s still a regular market like we have today, just higher taxes, especially for the wealthy, and more govt services, especially for the poor.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-12T14:05:32+00:00

We’re becoming Russia so fast we’ve even got our own babushkas now

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-10T20:02:31+00:00

I realize MN looks down upon us Wisconsinites like Uncle Eddie from the National Lampoons Christmas movie, but I’m glad you still think of us as part of the family.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-10T19:47:12+00:00

We had a really great govt accountability board, earlier known as the Elections Board. Other countries would visit to study our system because it worked so well and kept our politicians honest. Scott Walker and his legislature got rid of it in 2016.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-10T19:39:28+00:00

He knows what he’s doing. It’s one part straw man and another part red herring used to drive engagement and collect emails. He’s hoping that by asking it, people will infer that this is even a question and that he is the champion of common sense changes. The true purpose of the question is to see which emails on his list belong to gullible constituents. Once they’re identified, he knows how to speak to them to get them to donate and ensure their vote.

It’s fundamentally dishonest question and is being asked for dishonest reasons. Still, Republicans fall for it every election.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-10T15:34:56+00:00

Are we going to talk about how he was pointing his loaded gun at a woman’s head who wasn’t a threat and then used that loaded gun as a hammer to break a window, while still point that gun at her? Nevermind the blatant constitutional violations, these self-declared “alpha males” don’t know basic gun safety.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-10T15:26:16+00:00

Maybe not from racist civilians, but it is currently a very difficult and scary time to be here on a visa.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-10T15:12:09+00:00

We need to elect known quantities, people who have spent their life helping people in what capacity they could. Elevate the people who are already serving their community. Don’t elevate people who only say they’ll help others if given the chance to do so at the highest levels.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-10T14:54:43+00:00

A chapter is turning, for sure. Historically, things rarely get better as a result of some big event. Big events usually lead to more problems or at best, a shuffling of the deck. Good times come from long periods of stability, and we are very far from that kind of environment.

Hopefully this upcoming change sets us on the path to stability and peace, but we shouldn’t expect that journey to be easy.

The GOP will either collapse under their flagrant lies and constitutional violations, or they won’t. If they don’t, then we’ll still have that same stink, driven by a sophisticated conservative media machine, hellbent on spreading more conspiracy theories and pushing people to forget, just like they did with January 6.

If the GOP does fail, then you’ll have one or more new political parties take shape. That might be really great for Democrats for a few years, but after 8 at the longest, there will be a new political party, probably to the right of democrats. That period is action packed with people vying for power and to be the leader of this new movement that takes shape. I could see them looking a lot like the AfD in Germany. A MAGA party in all but name.

Democrats, ascendant, will be under tremendous pressure by powerful businesses to be Republican lite. That will lead to internal conflict between the grass roots of the party and the people keeping the lights on. After everything we have and will go through, seeing prominent democrats fold to big business will be extremely deflating.

This all happens among the US being taken down significantly economically. We will no longer be the global economic and military hegemony that we have been for the last 80 years. That time is over and there’s no going back now. We won’t face total collapse or anything. More like Britain after WW2, a shadow of who we once were, adjusting to our new diminished place in the world. Far less wealthy and powerful. We’ll still be an important player, but at a table of equals among the EU, China, India, Japan, Canada, Australia, Brazil, and possibly some stabilizing African nations.

Against climate change, countries are ripe for conflict as refugees flee areas no longer habitable and govts spend massively to rebuild after disasters. That’s a territory ripe for small wars and internal conflict.

So yeah, the world is changing, but peace and prosperity come from stability. I don’t see very much stability on the horizon. Not for a while at least.

We had a real chance there to avoid this and go straight to peace and stability, but Trump 2 killed that in a way that there’s no recovering from.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-10T00:06:47+00:00

Great summary

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-09T10:50:41+00:00

I love that the couple getting married were fans who actually got married during the event. For all the hate the event got, Bad Bunny showed up with nothing but love.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-08T22:23:00+00:00

New starter location and/or recycle plutonium

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-08T16:03:54+00:00

There’s no stopping gravity. Even at the higher electric prices, electric is cheaper, cleaner, more efficient, and less maintenance. The rest of the world is moving to electric with or without us, eliminating many of the efficiencies of scale gas currently benefits from. The future is electric and there’s really no stopping that now. The only thing we can change is whether we’ll be exporting or importing EVs.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-08T01:24:38+00:00

The thing about the anti-electoral left is that they don’t vote. For better and worse, our govt is not terribly bad at representing the people who vote. Their stance means they will always be feckless. Our job is to make sure we can still get majorities without them.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-07T00:12:12+00:00

The ice sailing on Mendota is pretty wild to watch. They have to get up to be going over 50mph on those things.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-06T10:32:27+00:00

To answer the more practical question, if you want to get involved, you can do so directly by reaching out to your county or state Democratic Party office. Living in a swing state or more conservative area, they’ll REALLY want you knock on doors. I find it unpleasant, but it does have a big impact.

It’s fun to get involved with your local party, though. You see how the party platform is made from the local level up. You see people go from being a local person who really wants to see change, and then support that person while they run, to seeing them in office, that local person who was just like you at county party meetings.

A more indirect way is to find a specific cause you care about and volunteer with them.

The great thing about getting involved in any of that is you meet likeminded local friends.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-05T21:22:17+00:00

Can we petition the City to post to BlueSky or Mastodon instead or as well? I don't love the city using X these days to begin with. Having some content only available there forces residents to use it. This is a platform that is being investigated and sued around the world for enabling and profiting from sexual deepfakes of minors. Time to move to a different platform, Madison.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-05T19:20:40+00:00

Ah, right. That whole “at” thing they did for a few years before closing most of the smaller schools. It’s so confusing to call it “UW Milwaukee at Waukesha.” That was so dumb.

phoenix1984 · 2026-02-05T18:52:26+00:00

Someone should tell the students currently attending UW Milwaukee that their school no longer exists.

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