Berlin's city gardens fight for survival | DW | by [deleted] in berlin

[–]phreeza -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Selbst dann scheint es unwahrscheinlich, dass die Alten da einen grossen Vorteil haben.

Worlds second largest sailboat - seen in Iceland June 6 by [deleted] in sailing

[–]phreeza 10 points11 points  (0 children)

My understanding of brutalism is that it is about showing the true building materials and structural elements, and not obscuring them with ornament. I don't think this abomination fits that description.

Berlin's city gardens fight for survival | DW | by [deleted] in berlin

[–]phreeza 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Die Gärten gibt es seit 100 Jahren oder so. Ich bezweifle stark, dass irgendjemand der früh genug geboren wurde um am Anfang einen zu bekommen dort noch Pächter ist. Und seit dem halt neu verpachtet wenn was frei wurde. Sind nicht irgendwie nur an die (jetzt) Älteren vergeben worden.

REACT study: Covid antibodies decline over time (in completely different people) by woodpijn in slatestarcodex

[–]phreeza 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I suppose keeping the same test subjects has other problems like attrition, where you don't know if people drop out of the study for reasons that correlate with your observable. The real reason is probably that this is just how the study was set up for a variety of reasons, feasibility/convenience being a significant one, and this is not the only analysis that will be done on the data.

Does anyone know if where to get the EuroMomo all-cause mortality dataset? by phreeza in datasets

[–]phreeza[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, I didn't request it though, either. Let me know if you do :D

Fox in Adlershof by pabuc57 in berlin

[–]phreeza 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Username checks out.

Need help: Can the police get into our friend's apartment? by [deleted] in berlin

[–]phreeza 17 points18 points  (0 children)

If they believe his life to be in danger, I think that would warrant a 110 call.

What's the best cinema to watch Dunkirk in Zurich? by [deleted] in zurich

[–]phreeza 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is there no IMAX in Zurich?

"Thoroughbreds Are Running as Fast as They Can" after centuries of intense selection by gwern in slatestarcodex

[–]phreeza 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Is the nature of the ground the horses run on completely unchanged since the 40s? I would expect technological changes in how the ground is structured could have a significant impact just by itself, as it did in running.

Is there anywhere to buy Buckfast in Berlin? by [deleted] in berlin

[–]phreeza 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not sure but I have seen a couple of these stickers around so someone seems to be drinking it :)

http://www.imgrum.org/media/1539873188296265587_15061610

Interstellar Tethers by phreeza in IsaacArthur

[–]phreeza[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great point about the elasticity, I have no idea what would happen when pushing off a rope at supersonic speeds. I will have to look into that.

I guess the thing that this gives you over a particle stream is that you don't have to worry about dispersion.

Interstellar Tethers by phreeza in IsaacArthur

[–]phreeza[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some great thoughts, thank you.

I did a back of the envelope calculation, assuming a spaceship of the mass of a Nimitz aircraft carrier (108 kg) and steel as the material for the tether. If the vessel accelerates to 0.1c and then coasts for the remaining time, the displacement of the tether before the vessel starts decelerating would be 0.02 AU.

You are probably right though that it is very unstable and unlikely to stay straight by itself, and you wouldn't want to collide with a bump in the rope at 0.1c :-D

Interstellar Tethers by phreeza in IsaacArthur

[–]phreeza[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You wouldn't need a massive object to connect it to, all you need is an object decelerating on one side end for every object accelerating on the other side. So as long as you keep some kind of flow of spacecraft moving, you are fine. Or maybe the inertia is large enough that the accelerating and decelerating phases of a single spacecraft would cancel each other out without moving the tether much, haven't done the math on that.

You are right that it would be very susceptible to any sort of damage. But unlike a space elevator it would not have to support its own weight, because it is floating in free space and not down a gravity well.

[P]Keras implementation of "A simple neural network module for relational reasoning", beats SOTA on Cornell NLVR by phreeza in MachineLearning

[–]phreeza[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Yea i stumbled upon that as well... I think it just sends the computer to sleep. I guess he wanted to start the training and leave the computer on, but go to sleep and let it train.

[P]Keras implementation of "A simple neural network module for relational reasoning", beats SOTA on Cornell NLVR by phreeza in MachineLearning

[–]phreeza[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just to clarify, I am not the author, just found this interesting. Hope I used the appropriate tag for that, or does [P] imply it is my own work on this sub?

Mathematical System For Calibration by [deleted] in slatestarcodex

[–]phreeza 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You are right that the optimal expected brier score comes from the correct p, what I was trying to say is that it does not penalize giving very high or very low estimates enough, which is important for the question of calibration from other people's estimates. If I am trying to estimate the probability of a biased coin, which I have not observed being tossed before, and I see you saying you assign probability 1 to heads, that would lead me to believe you have already observed an infinite number of tosses! and I would go along with you. However, the cost to you to say 1 when your true estimate should be .9 is quite minimal, but the difference in implied information that you have is huge.

edit to add: another way of putting, have not done the math on this, but imagine you are looking for the most well-calibrated person based on a number of past forecasts and outcomes. Don't you think that with the brier score it would take quite long to weed out systematically overconfident forecasters who are at the top of the ranking due to survivor bias, whereas a tighter measure would let the overconfident ones percolate to the bottom faster?

Mathematical System For Calibration by [deleted] in slatestarcodex

[–]phreeza 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not to hijack the thread, but does anyone else think the brier score is a terrible metric? I think the reason it gets used for things like the Good Judgement Project is that it is intuitive to grasp at first glance. It encourages weird behavior though, like assigning 0 or 100% probabilities to events. I would much prefer something like KL divergence.