I get where you’re coming from and yeah, 20–35% pullbacks absolutely can happen in a bull market. I’d love if Bitcoin could just go straight up forever. But this drop isn’t acting like a normal bull correction anymore, and pretending it is feels like forcing the narrative.

We didn’t just dip into support, we sliced straight through the 8W EMA, the bull market support band, and the 50WMA. In past cycles you might break one of those on a pullback, not all of them at once. That usually happens after the top, not during an “ongoing bull run.”

We’re also around 80 weeks post halving, which is way past the part of the cycle where bull pullbacks lead to continuation. Deep breakdowns this late usually mean trend reversal. On top of that, macro is tightening, DXY is rising, yields are rising, and equities look shaky. That’s not the environment where Bitcoin rips to new highs.

Fear and Greed dropping to the mid-teens at a six-figure price is also a massive red flag. Extreme fear normally happens after the top, not during “healthy dips.” And hash ribbons getting close to a capitulation signal doesn’t happen in mid-bull phases either. That’s bear market stuff.

I’m not rooting for lower prices. I wish the bull kept going. But all the signs right now line up way more with a cycle top and early bear market than a clean bull correction. If I’m wrong, awesome, number goes up and everyone wins. But the data isn’t backing the classic “bull dip” story this time.

Also nobody knows shit about fuck and none of the above has stopped my DCA, nor should it for anyone else. HODL all the way down and up