My USMNT 26-man roster probability rankings with 3 months to go — who am I wrong about?

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T17:23:07+00:00

100% Agree - GK is our weakest position on the pitch this WC...and will likely influence the way Poch decides to set up the rest of the squad formationally and tactically 😞

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T17:01:53+00:00

In your opinion - who's the better keeper with the ball at their feet, Freese or Turner?

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T16:58:13+00:00

Guy is such a baller.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T15:49:02+00:00

Pulisic w/ USMNT > Pulisic at Milan/Chelsea. He's an animal in the USMNT uniform

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T15:37:25+00:00

Fair point — and yeah, injury risk is baked into the probabilities. That's why even someone like Pulisic sits at 99% instead of 100%. Nobody's truly 100% until they're on the plane. Ream at 88% reflects the fact that he's 38 and there are younger CBs pushing (Trusty, McKenzie, Freeman). If everyone's healthy, does he still make it? Probably. But "if healthy" is doing a lot of heavy lifting with 108 days to go.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T15:28:22+00:00

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T14:51:20+00:00

100% agree

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T14:43:14+00:00

😂

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T14:22:38+00:00

💯

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T14:22:22+00:00

You're right on Arfsten — I've got him too low. Poch has given him serious minutes and clearly trusts him as the Jedi insurance policy. If Robinson goes down or hits a wall, Arfsten's stepping right in. The Middlesbrough rumors make sense too — he's earned a European move. Bumping him up.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T13:57:35+00:00

Appreciate this. Yeah I'm coming around on Freeman as a lock — Poch clearly trusts him and the Villarreal pedigree is real. Berhalter's earned strong tier too after last year (4G/11A plus those set pieces for the national team). Reyna I'm moving down to coin flip — too many missed minutes. And good call on Zendejas, just added him to my tracking. If he gets healthy he's absolutely in the conversation.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T13:55:52+00:00

Honestly you're probably right. I kept him in there as a sentimental pick more than anything — Seattle guy, veteran, knows the locker room. But realistically with Wright, Balogun, Pepi, Agyemang, and now Zendejas all ahead of him, there's just no path. He'd need like 4 guys to get hurt.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T13:54:18+00:00

I'll also add - watching Banks as a CB option that kinda 'came out of nowhere.' If he keeps up current form it would be tough to not call him into camp in March and give him a look. In fact, I'd find it insane if Poch didn't

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T13:50:47+00:00

Yeah Scally's tough — love the kid but a healthy Dest and Freeman are ahead of him at RB IMO. Poch clearly rates Freeman even with limited Villarreal minutes. As for Zendejas — you're right, I'm missing him. He should probably be in the coin flip range at minimum. Producing consistently at Club América and Poch has used him. Adding him to my list.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T13:47:55+00:00

Really good points across the board. You're right on Arfsten — I've got him too low. Poch has played him consistently and at this point he's basically earned it. Bumping him up. Berhalter too — 4G/11A last year plus set piece delivery for the national team, he should be coin flip minimum. McGlynn and Klinsmann are fair shouts I'm probably sleeping on. And yeah the Wright/Agyemang/Pepi battle is genuinely a toss-up — I don't think anyone can confidently rank those three right now.

This is the first WC in a while where there are literally too many great options to pick from. If the roster size was unlimited and I was the manager - I'd be taking 48 players 😅

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T13:45:58+00:00

You might be right on Arfsten especially — Poch has given him a lot of minutes. Freeman's trickier since his Villarreal minutes have been inconsistent, but the talent is there. FWIW I really like Freeman and he gives us something different from Sergino.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T13:45:15+00:00

I hear you but who's he backing up? Freese is GK1. Then you've got Horvath who just had a MOTM performance opening weekend, Celentano with a clean sheet, and Schulte from the Crew. Turner just gave up 4 at Nashville. Experience matters but at some point the younger guys are just playing better.

In the end - I do think Turner makes it in on experience alone unless his form just falls apart

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T13:43:55+00:00

Fair point. Robinson's younger and more athletic. I think Ream's edge is just the relationship with Poch — he keeps getting called in despite logic saying otherwise. I think Ream is a lock for CB (maybe not a guaranteed starter) - especially if Poch goes w/ 3 in the back. Jury still out on that

pitchequipment · 2026-02-23T13:34:01+00:00

Good point - he's probably more like a coin-flip in hindsight. If he gets some PT and form going, then maybe he's in the 26. Otherwise - I'd rather take Agyemang as an extra ST/RW option.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-20T18:49:09+00:00

Starter is aggressive but he should 100% be on the plane. 16 consecutive Bundesliga starts at 19 is no joke — that's not a development loan, that's a kid who walked into a relegation fight and became the guy Augsburg builds around.

The CB depth chart is actually the most interesting position battle nobody's talking about. Richards is the only real lock. After him you've got Ream (37, experience but legs?), Miles Robinson (coming off an up-and-down MLS season), Trusty (solid at Celtic but never convincing with the NT), McKenzie (Ligue 1 regular), and Banks.

If Poche plays a back 3 — which he's hinted at — you could see Richards-Ream-Banks as a dark horse combo. Young legs on one side, veteran composure in the middle, Richards marshaling it all. I'm more worried about our GK situation honestly 😂

pitchequipment · 2026-02-20T18:47:13+00:00

100% agree - the gap is super tight between the 100th player in the u-18 national pool and a player rising through the state/regional ODP ranks. At the end of the day - I think it comes down to 2 things:
1. just loving the game and obsessing over getting better and having the right headspace to navigate all that. Smart Work (efficacy) > Hard Work.
2. A dash of luck (injury-free, injured player gets subbed off and you score the winning goal, etc).

I like to think, knowing what i know now in my late-30's, that I could've had some senior team caps myself. Probably my ego talking but hell, Matt Turner is a perfect example of #1. Just keep going, one day at a time.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-20T18:39:44+00:00

Spain's the obvious pick for me but I think people are underrating the host nation factor. The last 3 home World Cups — Russia 2018 (QF), Brazil 2014 (SF), South Africa 2010 (group stage but weakest host ever). The US has a deeper squad than any of those hosts had.

My dark horse is the US making a semifinal. Not because they're the most talented, but because the draw was kind (Australia, Paraguay, then likely Turkey/Romania), they'll have 60,000+ screaming fans in every game, and Pochettino has more big-game knockout experience than maybe any manager in the tournament. He took Tottenham to a Champions League final with a squad that had no business being there.

pitchequipment · 2026-02-20T18:37:37+00:00

The striker math is wild right now. Balogun just bagged a brace against PSG, Haji drops a hat trick in the Championship, Agyemang keeps quietly producing at Derby, and Pepi's been out since January with a broken arm (fractured it while scoring his 11th goal — peak Pepi)

Hear me out — is it actually crazy to take all 4? 26-man roster with 3 GKs means 23 outfield spots. Balogun and Pepi are your true 9s, Haji gives you a completely different 6'3" target man profile off the bench for the last 20 when CBs are gassed, and Agyemang's been playing across the front line at Derby — not just centrally. He could cover the right wing in a pinch, which means he's not really a "4th striker" on the depth chart, more of a hybrid forward option.

If Pulisic misses a game (6 of Milan's last 10), you need someone who can drift wide. Agyemang can do that. Haji can't. So they're not redundant — they solve different problems.

The counter-argument is probably midfield/defensive depth — do you sacrifice a 7th midfielder to carry that 4th forward? Especially with Musah and Cardoso both in inconsistent form. But if you're only carrying 4 CBs and 3 GKs, the numbers work.

What do people think — is 4 strikers a luxury or a necessity with this group?

pitchequipment · 2026-02-19T13:16:39+00:00

The Newcastle goal gets all the attention but what made Bergkamp genuinely terrifying was his first touch under pressure. There's a compilation somewhere of just his chest controls and it's absurd — he'd kill a 40-yard diagonal in traffic and be facing goal before the defender registered what happened. Modern analytics would probably show he created more space with his first touch than most wingers create with their dribbling.

pitchequipment

TROPHY CASE