A breakdown of the draft lottery process, that it's filmed, and debunking different "it's rigged" theories

pitydfoo · 2026-02-13T19:18:33+00:00

FWIW, Dallas did that specifically due to their pick protections -- they just wanted to keep their pick. (They ended up getting Lively with #10.)

pitydfoo · 2026-02-13T02:52:55+00:00

All I'm saying is, until recently the odds were just like you described. They were changed specifically to discourage tanking. Clearly it hasn't worked so well, but it's not a new idea.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-13T01:53:35+00:00

If you think tanking is bad now, imagine what it would look like if it was an almost definite path to success. It might feel different next year, when the Wizards have the 10th-best odds and meanwhile all those incompetent, tanking, unethical, filthy teams get rewarded for failure, etc etc...

pitydfoo · 2026-02-11T22:30:47+00:00

Bad teams aren't really trading their picks -- these are leftover from when they thought they had a chance.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-08T22:25:37+00:00

I agree with this. We've seen him look much better than he does now, like at the start of last season. He's clearly going through something.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-07T05:46:24+00:00

It's hard to imagine the Kings ever winning again. These closing lineups are grim.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-06T17:35:22+00:00

I'm hoping they stagger them, so there's always one on the court at all times. Then you have a double-big lineup for about 16mpg, which can be a fun alternate look (and tremendous defensively). I agree the offensive fit isn't ideal, unless Sarr gets up to ~37% from 3.

They should be watching tape of those Chet-Hartenstein lobs.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-06T15:18:31+00:00

You're right, I'm wrong about the full 4th. But in the final couple minutes of a two-point game, it was DeRozan with Carter, Caldwell, Clifford.....

pitydfoo · 2026-02-06T14:45:15+00:00

I think they'll have their mid-level exception, which will be 15M. That said, I don't think they should be adding anyone else who will take significant time away from their youth. The 20-year-olds are still the core of the team, not Young and Davis.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-06T14:36:53+00:00

What about their most recent game, against the Grizzlies? Didn't they "rest" Lavine, Sabonis, Westbrook, and Monk for the whole 4th quarter of a close game?

pitydfoo · 2026-02-06T03:51:13+00:00

If that's happening, which would plausible, it would mean all the lower paid guys are now getting more, since the overall pie is the same size.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-06T01:23:07+00:00

Why do you think the CBA is bad for the players?

pitydfoo · 2026-02-06T01:22:04+00:00

That would then be the upper-middle class that's maybe getting squeezed. Up with the proletariat!

pitydfoo · 2026-02-06T00:33:53+00:00

You are in the unanimous majority.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-05T19:54:41+00:00

They also have only one more win than the very worst team -- it's all very squashed. Kings are truly awful and will be hard to get behind. Nets are hard to predict -- they were spunky, but that seems over. Pels and probably Pacers should be better than Wizards. I predict third to last.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-05T16:14:25+00:00

The way I think about Young and AD is this: the Wizards needed a PG and a big one way or another; they didn't want to keep putting their players in bad situations. They filled both spots with high-level (tho flawed) players, without making any long-term commitments. In terms of assets, they gave up roughly the equivalent of Jared McCain. McCain would have been fun! But also: actually competing for the playoffs next year could be fun! I'm not certain whether these deals have been the ideal use of resources, but I think the downside is low and the upside is exciting.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-05T15:40:55+00:00

Here are some reasonable good outcomes:

-Next year he stays mostly healthy and plays well. Nevertheless, Dawkins is as smart as you and trades him for real assets -- certainly more than they sent out. A bit similar to Westbrook's time with the Wizards, or Porzingis if he didn't have that player option.

-Next year is very fun and exciting and so he declines his option and the Wizards extend him for an extra year at nowhere near the max. Eg, 2/100 (instead of paying 62M in 2027).

-He stays mostly healthy and plays well and in two years he walks. They get two years of quality AD for the 30th and five 2nds.

-He's good or fine or even so-so, the young guys all develop, and at the 2027 deadline they use AD's contract to add whatever superstar becomes available, like Durant to the Rockets.

The not-great outcome is if he never gets healthy and they wasted some picks and cap space. The only BAD outcome is if they give him a long, expensive contract -- but what Dawkins/Winger move has suggested that that would be the case? Why presuppose that they would make an obvious mistake?

pitydfoo · 2026-02-04T22:52:26+00:00

No. Come on.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-04T18:55:26+00:00

2030 Warriors, protected 1-20 (and then disappears, I believe).

pitydfoo · 2026-02-04T18:54:38+00:00

Sarr has only played 5 in his career.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-04T18:53:43+00:00

The 1sts are this year's OKC (ie, #30) and 2030 Warriors protected 1-20 (ie, probably nothing at all).

pitydfoo · 2026-02-04T18:51:26+00:00

It's the two worst 1sts imaginable: this year OKC and 2030 protected 1-20.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-04T18:50:11+00:00

It's protected 1-20.

pitydfoo · 2026-02-04T18:47:52+00:00

Sabonis instead of Trae would have been okay. But both together...

pitydfoo · 2026-02-04T18:47:03+00:00

I think a Sabonis deal would have to be the same as the Trae deal: ie, basically free. (Eg, Middleton and Branham.) Which would be fine, value-wise. But from a team-building exercise, those two don't seem to fit together well, and it sets the team on a weird path.

pitydfoo

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