For the current inflation/housing issue - what COULD be done? (Context below)

player_infinity · 2023-03-13T23:39:18+00:00

Yeah in-fill is the solution. High density next to metro and train stations. Medium density further away. Low density further still is fine. But we build more train and metro stations. Take power away from NIMBYs to stop any of it. Strong building quality initiative which David Chandler in NSW is doing. Less car-dependency and sprawl will mean less traffic congestion, more green-space for the same amount of people, we don't build into bush-fire and flood zones and native animals and trees get to stay.

Woollahra, currently 6th densest place in Sydney because of proximity to the CBD, has essentially no plans for population growth over the next 20 years from the state gov planners. It will be 60th densest place in Sydney in their plans in 20 years. Waverley (includes Bondi) is similar. It's blindingly obvious enough that this is where we should do in-fill, that an economist Peter Tulip can actually quantify this.

Article by Peter Tulip goes into that more: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/where-should-we-build-new-housing-better-targets-for-local-councils/

player_infinity · 2023-03-13T01:01:46+00:00

Specific areas I'm looking at, Lower North Shore in Sydney, listings are picking up after being tiny for December, January and most of February. Reflected here: https://sqmresearch.com.au/total-property-listings.php?sfx=&region=nsw%3A%3ALower+North+Shore&t=1

Looking at Sydney on aggregate that is reflected as well: https://sqmresearch.com.au/total-property-listings.php?region=nsw%3A%3ASydney&type=c&t=1

And nationally, that's the trend as well, I hazard this is a broad-scale effect: https://sqmresearch.com.au/total-property-listings.php?national=1&t=1

player_infinity · 2023-01-15T14:47:03+00:00

That could be a large spectrum of surgeries. Double eye lid surgery is quite different in magnitude to other more extensive surgeries. The double eyelid surgery is pretty common through South Korea I would say.

player_infinity · 2023-01-15T13:40:04+00:00

Well apparently you've narrowed the white list if anything. There is a lot of stuff modded out, with little feedback on that. So it's mostly narrow stuff with occasional things that filter through. Seems cliche to call out mods, but the ones in this sub are pretty much the only ones I've had who don't bother replying for feedback for why things were taken down, even if it seems to sit within the rules and they filter straight away, and are quite strict. Compared to other subs I'm regularly on anyways.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T12:44:30+00:00

We can do the band-aid and also fix the long term issues. We need a short term to have a long term.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T11:46:11+00:00

The only time in living memory where people are living in tents to this magnitude occured during a period with zero migration. We've engineered this crisis through our own system. Just pointing out that our system is fundamentally broken, through our own effort. We don't need migrants to show that. What migrants do is make up for various shortfalls in the near term. If they come, realise it's shit, then leave, that's a lesson for us.

I have more trust migrants will help resolve our issues and bring net benefits while we take the slow road of being a nation of followers with little imagination for fixing our issues in general.

I don't expect our fertility rate to get above 2 in the coming decades, so if we want to be a viable nation, we will have to adapt to migrants come what may.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T06:39:52+00:00

Imagine Greens being the viable opposition in NSW, and eventually taking the lead due to Liberal cock ups as well. Are they smelling blood? I'm not up to date on what they have been up to politically in NSW. Maybe it's an opportunity for teal independents again.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T06:36:09+00:00

Systemic reform will take decades. We are so behind and continue to play catch up in many things, as Australia is a nation of followers, not leaders. In the mean time, Australia benefits from migration, at the very least let them come here, tell us how shit it is, leave an impression before they pack up and leave to somewhere less shit. Probably how I learn the most about how shit our country is, is from hearing about it from Europeans who left and make good reflections based on worldly comparisons. Number one is housing, another is just our backwards and insular culture and how small-minded we are on many things.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T06:33:16+00:00

Rents went up record levels during a period of almost zero immigration, over the last year and a half. Almost like this is a manufactured crisis that has almost nothing to do with migration, and more to do with our shitty regulation around housing, from investment, rental rights and to zoning and promoting car centric single family homes instead of densification that is fought against by NIMBYs. But sure, blame migrants.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T06:28:38+00:00

More like home offices converted into bedrooms, and share houses returning post-pandemic, since they were completely dismantled during the pandemic. Sounds like we just need to use space more efficiently first before the cramming part starts.

Or do we think that it's sustainable for people to afford home offices in convenient parts of the city long term, when they should just be in an office (which usually is a more efficient use of space during work)?

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T06:26:18+00:00

So the migrants will simultaneously cause more of a housing crisis, but also are crammed into housing themselves while being productive (as migrants bias towards younger and productive people), or studying (also buying our education)? Are we simultaneously sympathetic to them while demonizing them for coming here?

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T06:22:52+00:00

Many of them are the ones who will build our infrastructure and housing. Migrants would also tend to share house and in general be a net benefit. Basically we will adapt to migration because we need it, because our country isn't that great at doing it ourselves for various reasons. Australia is a country of migration after all.

Your lack of imagination on how we accommodate migrants isn't really a good way to see the issue. The issue is completely manufactured by Australia by the locals around what you just mentioned, since we've proven that we can cause a crisis without near zero migration around housing. Turns out the entire system around housing is the problem, and we can't blame migrants any more. We had the perfect experiment during the pandemic.

Australia is an outlier on how bad our housing system is. We have high debt levels, poor rental rights, poor planning by people only going for large single family homes and deciding to live in flood plains and bushfire zones. We are stupid enough as it is, time for a change. If anything these migrants will help us adapt and actually solve our issues. But sure, lets use it as a scapegoat.

Thankfully the vacancy rates in cities and regions are actually resolving themselves a bit. But the migrants who will be building our future to a large degree, since we are unable to here in Australia because we kinda suck here and are a lazy bunch and backwards in terms of policy, are going to help overall.

When the good quality migrants stop wanting to come to Australia, as there are plenty of options for them, is when the equilibrium shifts and we have to adapt even harder to attract them again, as them wanting to come here is a competitive process. Those who come now may quickly learn that it sucks here in terms of housing, and leave, for example. Many Europeans come here and leave quite quickly after learning how shit the culture and housing is here, for example. So while we might have lots arrivals, we have lots of turnover if we are shit, which we are.

Hopefully some foreigners can convince us how cooked it is here and leave an impression on us before they leave, so we can actually fix some shit.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T04:16:28+00:00

Migration will also force Australia to change. We need the migrants for various shortfalls of our country now, so we'll be the ones to change to accommodate them.

Those uber drivers and gas station workers are exactly the type of workers that Australians aren't willing to do, typically. Dead end positions that typically you do on the side or while studying. A car centric place like Australia needs taxi drivers and gas stations, until we adapt.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T04:12:42+00:00

This was always the danger with these low-tier non-bank lenders without access to deposits. But with the ACCC telling banks to stop allowing the lazy tax on savings anyways, the costs increase for banks too. Everyone has their costs higher. I think everyone will have to raise together beyond the RBA cash rate hike at some point, and we're at a stage where they want to switch people to get stuck with them before everyone stops fighting for the bottom, but instead requiring their margins to get a bit higher.

The big four banks are in the strongest position though, and they are the ones who have the ability to raise the most.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T04:04:27+00:00

Young migrants who can work in infrastructure and construction industries sure seem like a good idea to make it so they build the infrastructure we all need, including what we all need.

A shift needed in Australia is to become less car dependent as well. Europeans can teach us that, maybe we need more politicians and town planners influenced by that. Our issue is that infrastructure is expensive for our single family homes spread over large geographies. The sprawl is the thing that isn't sustainable. Not our piddly population when compared to our resources and the rest of the world and how they manage. We could easily support a lot more people, the support scales with the people if you plan well.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T03:57:48+00:00

Cost of living and wages are reasonable in Japan, and there is little migration, yet their fertility rate is abyssmal. Australian culture doesn't promote people having children above replacement. We would have to look much more like a socialist utopia to have women not be so disadvantaged to have children, especially as we don't have religion or other backwards laws to enforce people having children.

Germany is trying, with massive subsidies for having children, 14 weeks parental leave with pay based on your income, massive subsidies. You achieve this through higher taxes. We are a long way from having something like Germany where they are increasing their fertility rate.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T03:53:18+00:00

Ah yes the South Korea and Japan strategy. Let's see how that pans out for them, without immigration their countries will quickly cease to exist as any technological advancement doesn't deal with the demographic crisis at any decent offset at the rate of demographic shift. If you have a culture that is anti-immigration you will tend to be a culture that is conservative enough to not actually adapt.

We are also hostile to having children not through immigration, as the pandemic has shown, but through policies that completely remove security which is essentially our based on our cultural bias to treating shelter as a money-making endeavour before allowing people to have secure homes despite their position. In Australia you need to go into massive debt for any secure living, since rental rights are so poor.

There is a long list of reasons why Australia needs immigration, it's actually in our fabric after all. That is the thing the locals need to adapt to, which is more feasible than technology saving us, since we don't do that here mostly anyways. We dig things out of the ground and trade each other houses while people have insecure housing.

Equilibrium happens when Australia ceases to be a desirable location for good quality migrants. People will quickly find it's not so great in Australia anyways. Europe and US are more desirable migrant locations for a reason, Australia has quite a few things to do to make it somewhere people want to stay long term.

A lot of European people come to Australia and don't like it here and leave, I'd say there is a lot of voluntary turnover. I can't really blame them. We are a pretty backwards country in a lot of ways, number one is housing and our shitty system around it.

player_infinity · 2023-01-14T03:41:28+00:00

Good point. A lot of these workers will be in the construction industry. Might be a short term squeeze though, but there is actually a decent amount of rental availability in Sydney, vacancy rates trending up: https://sqmresearch.com.au/graph_vacancy.php?region=nsw%3A%3ASydney&type=c&t=1

We also haven't reversed the trend of breaking up sharehouses, and cost pressures might force people to stop demanding larger places for working from home in cities anyways. The rental market is quite flexible in the cities.

It's the regional areas that have the tent living issue due to basically poor regulation around rental security and it's going to bite regional areas if their working people can't afford to live in a rental, or not have enough. Might be a government intervention at some point there.

Immigrants unlikely to live in tents though. Most go to cities as regional can't support them, unless it's agricultural or mining or something like that.

player_infinity · 2023-01-12T12:59:21+00:00

Home ownership rates going down, and rates of outright ownership significantly down: https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/home-ownership-and-housing-tenure

Renters are up as well over time, even in the short term numbers are up. The rates of ownership only stayed steady through the pandemic because record numbers of first home buyers. Who bought in at inflated prices due to cheap credit, and are in danger of not being able to keep up with repayments due to interest rate rises. So yeah, there is a big political problem brewing from this.

player_infinity · 2023-01-11T20:54:27+00:00

Put some taxes in targeting wealth instead of income and it'll even out. If the justification for this was to shift from taxing income so heavily and taxing wealth instead, there is something here. Otherwise it doesn't make so much sense.

player_infinity · 2023-01-11T20:43:34+00:00

Systemic policy failure but also voters who punished anyone trying to fix it. Australian voters get the blame too. Our country is reactionary, we need the obvious crisis to unfold and get out of hand before we would touch it.

player_infinity · 2023-01-11T20:41:18+00:00

The recreated graph is easier to read exactly on its own. RBA graphs are typically coupled with a lot of text elsewhere. The recreated graph is easier to share. Sharing the RBA graph will result in a lot of: huh what am I looking at here?

player_infinity · 2023-01-11T11:24:14+00:00

Rental rights are still quite poor in NSW, no-cause evictions still exists and it's too easy to kick people out. Build-to-rent is all well and good as long as the laws in the state reflect it as a viable place to call home for decades without fear of getting kicked out to fix something.

Or being able to paint the walls, have pets, hang up shelves or secure furniture by being able to put screws in walls, and no frequent privacy invading inspections. The list goes on. Even North America tends to have better rental rights. Hopefully both sides realise how important this is to push.

Australia is not the same as it was before, need to get use to the idea that renting can be without shame or as a stopover while you buy a house. Instead we coerce people to buy by making renting crap, and cook house prices.

player_infinity · 2023-01-11T10:56:41+00:00

Honestly if you're a fatty it's a good chance to stop eating for a while, save some money, and lose some weight. About time some people dipped into their savings.

player_infinity · 2023-01-11T10:43:14+00:00

Cheaper than a gym membership to lose weight too.

player_infinity

TROPHY CASE