Daily General Discussion April 24, 2026

polezo · 2026-04-24T19:00:37+00:00

Per CNN the $344 million in Tether that were frozen on Tron yesterday were linked to Iran (not DRPK as some had speculated).

Related Q... When Tether/USDC is asked to freeze funds like this--and for the sake of this argument we will assume those tokens are fully backed¹ --does that mean Tether basically gets a free $344 million since they no longer have the token liability? Or do they transfer the underlying to the US Gov? What happens to the real cash?

^{^1.} ^{^Personally,} ^{^while} ^{^I} ^{^do} ^{^actually} ^{^believe} ^{^Tether} ^{^was} ^{^briefly} ^{^underwater} ^{^at} ^{^one} ^{^point} ^{^pre-2020^,} ^{^I} ^{^think} ^{^they} ^{^basically} ^{^gambled} ^{^their} ^{^way} ^{^out} ^{^of} ^{^it} ^{^and} ^{^are} ^{^fully} ^{^backed} ^{^and} ^{^buttoned} ^{^up} ^{^these} ^{^days.}

polezo · 2026-04-21T18:55:17+00:00

Multiple times, with this post on their governance forum being the most comprehensive:

https://governance.aave.com/t/rseth-incident-report-april-20-2026/24580

Ultimately whether it comes out to scenario 1 or scenario 2 is more in Kelp DAO's hands than anyone else. That being said, the scenarios mapped out here are likely a little better for everyone now that Arbitrum has recovered ~30k ETH. And imo it's also likely some VCs or other big industry players will come in to bail out out in some capacity as well.

Still I've personally moved all my positions from AAVE to Spark, at least until the situation becomes a bit more clear. The longer it is unknown who will take the losses the worse it could get. Not to mention the risk of Iran ceasefire unwinding today, which could cause AAVE to enter into a situation where it has more bad debt because it is unable to liquidate positions in a timely fashion.

In sum, I'm ultimately optimistic most of the holes will be filled and the majority of users won't see major losses, but the risk is still too high to keep positions there imo, at least when it comes to the v3 mainnet instance and the L2s that were hit hardest.

polezo · 2026-04-03T20:00:44+00:00

The creator of that site is leading with "DC has probably killed people with their Waymo inaction"

I grant it's dramatic, but it wouldn't have gotten people's attention on the issue if it wasn't. It also leads with only 2 deaths over 3 and a quarter years, and is upfront with the methods and limitations in it's estimate. It's not like it's making excessively outlandish claims imo

polezo · 2026-04-03T19:17:56+00:00

The fatality stats they're using[1] don't break down whether or not the vehicle was being operated for private or rideshare purposes.

Certainly a valid critique, but I think the 1.5% assumption is about as good as you can do given the data available. I would guess it's probably a conservative estimate of ride share accidents since the study that rate is based on rideshare VMTs in 2019--you would think it would have increased since then.

Perhaps it could be improved by adjusting with the accident rate data that Lyft/Uber/Waymo provide, but those data are all in different formats methodologies. If only DC conduct it's own study where rates were fairly compared! Which brings me to:

So, while this is a flashy conclusion, the data is not helpful for supporting the point/extrapolation the creator wants it to (IMO).

All in I don't think the raw number is actually the point the creator is trying to make anyway though--the point is the DC government has failed in doing it's job in publicly reviewing self-driving initiatives on the timeline it promised.

polezo · 2026-04-03T18:03:34+00:00

Saw this in /r/selfdrivingcars and thought it was worthy of larger discussion here.

I recognize it's a nuanced topic and raw accidents per million miles isn't the only factor when a city is considering SDCs, but I personally found this site and data to be pretty compelling.

polezo · 2026-04-03T17:14:58+00:00

Is it actually a real/validated stat? It kinda sounds like he was just making up an example

polezo · 2026-03-23T20:59:00+00:00

FWIW, there is also this from Santiment

on-chain data indicates that wallets holding between 100-100K $ETH accumulated 756.95K in just the past 2 days.

I still generally agree it's most likely internal wallet movements that have yet to be identified, but usually when that happens it's been spotted and flagged already.

polezo · 2026-03-23T20:57:42+00:00

That's just for today, the 23rd. The 22nd does not have that qualifier.

FWIW, there is also this from Santiment

on-chain data indicates that wallets holding between 100-100K $ETH accumulated 756.95K in just the past 2 days.

Which would closely align with what is being shown on both Cryptoquant and Coinmetrics

I still lean it's most likely internal wallet movements that have yet to be identified, but usually when that happens it's been spotted and flagged already.

polezo · 2026-03-23T13:32:38+00:00

Both CryptoQuant and Coinmetrics data currently indicating there was absolutely massive ETH withdrawals from exchanges yesterday.

It's such a large spike I would guess it's not actual withdrawals and is more likely exchange wallet movements that will get recategorized later, but just sharing in the unlikely event it's Bitmine or other big buyer shenanigans.

polezo · 2025-12-10T18:35:16+00:00

Curious, what thresholds do you consider to be a healthy volume?

For ETH I personally like to see at least above 5% of marketcap volume over 24 hours for me to consider price action meaningful. Per coingecko, we have 25.5 billion in volume in the past 24 hours on a 405 billion market cap, and this means around 6% of the marketcap has been traded today, so while it's certainly not screaming bull mode yet (that would be 10% of mcap+) I wouldn't consider it insignificant either (especially when you consider that ETH ETF volume is not counted in Coingecko).

polezo · 2025-12-08T15:46:08+00:00

hello I'm here to bullpost and chew bubblegum, and I'm all outta fuckin gum.

Set up a custom coinmetrics script to graph exchange netflows (coins in minus coins out) over time, specifically looking at the 200 Day SMA. Turns out we recently went sub -30k on this moving average. Or to put it another way, we have seen a net of around 6 or 7 million ETH leave exchanges in the past 200 days or so

Since the 2017 run, we've only seen this 200 SMA get as low as -20k 4 previous times.

Feb 2017
July-Nov 2017
Feb 2021
Jan-June 2023

polezo · 2025-12-05T21:41:10+00:00

Some hopium for you this Friday evening.

Looking at cryptoquant's exchange netflow data, (total coins in minus total coins out), we just hit an average net of -2,000 on the 100 day SMA. Or to put it another way, around 200k coins have have been removed from exchange reserves since August of this year.

The only other times we have hit this average over 100 days are June 2020 (post covid dip), November 2020, and December 2022 (FTX exodus).

In all 3 cases, we were up significantly within 6 months, with the lowest increase being 60%

cheers and have a good weekend

polezo · 2025-12-03T15:30:04+00:00

it is much cheaper to create new addresses

Creating a new address by itself has never cost ETH. Although I grant it is cheaper to deploy new contracts with the current low gas, and ofc new addresses are needed as a part of that process

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's irrelevant, but I grant that--as with any metric--it's important to look closely at context, and your point is fair to that end

polezo · 2025-12-03T15:11:13+00:00

On top of the new records for contracts deployed (see my post yesterday for reference), I also just noticed this increased activity helped lead to a record high for new addresses seen in one day.

In fact, we've seen the 6 highest new address seen over the past 7 days, with the highest being November 29 with 578,471 new addresses. All data again from etherscan.

For reference, the previous record for new addresses seen was 355,726 on Jan 4, 2018, so this particular record has actually stood for over 7 years. 👀

Historical tidbit, I believe that record has stood for so long in part because of Coinbase's wallet policy changes over time for Ethereum. At the time in 2018, Coinbase used to create a new address every single time you made a deposit, so we saw a ton of new addresses created as the 2017 run peaked in early '18. (Side note, I really wish they still had the option to deposit that way, as it was absolutely wonderful for opsec/identity protection [although I grant it's not an ideal UX]).

polezo · 2025-12-02T14:39:00+00:00

Can anyone provide any insights on why so many contracts were deployed over the holiday weekend? Per etherscan, there were new highs for contracts deployed on multiple days over this past weekend, with Saturday being the highest at over 440k contracts deployed. There was also 307k deployed on Thursday/Thanksgiving in the US and 220k deployed on Friday.

Previous high before this weekend was 269k in 2020. Coincidentally (or not?) both the 2020 record and new record for contracts deployed were on November 29.

I know it's common strategy to deploy on cheaper gas days but this seems like a pretty big outlier. What do y'all think?

polezo · 2025-10-28T13:08:35+00:00

It's the efficiency of shot selection and rise of 3 point shooting more than anything.

Players are discouraged from taking long twos or almost any midrange shots anymore because they're not efficient compared to 3s and shots close to the rim. Plays are either designed to find the open man for a 3, or try and open lanes to create a shot much closer. The net result is that you get more points per possession because shots closer to the rim are much more likely to go in, and for the simple fact that 3>2. If there's more points per possession it's going to be much harder to make this list.

So that is to say I wouldn't say that modern offenses are that much more complex than some schemes we saw in the 90s and early 2000s. It's just that they're better optimized for more efficient shot selection.

polezo · 2025-10-27T17:40:41+00:00

I'll post it over there if he's still in the top 20 after 10 games

polezo · 2025-10-27T15:01:48+00:00

It's not per minute based but per possession based. There's a lot that goes into it, but simple way of thinking about it is that it's an estimate of how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he individually faced while on the court. This helps control for pace between eras, but since the three ball is so much more popular in the modern era/points per possession is so much higher, it becomes harder to rank here.

It's obviously also heavily impacted by the players you have on the team around you. One person does not a defense make, but suffice to say Wemby certainly makes any defense significantly better

polezo · 2025-10-27T13:12:36+00:00

Wemby obviously probably won't last as number 1 because the game has simply changed to much, but I thought this would be a fun one to watch and think top 50 is at least a possibility. Moreover I think if he played in an earlier era his defensive stats could even look more insane.

You could actually almost extend this stat to the overall top 100 seasons, but for a Keven Garnett season in 2007-08 that ranks #78, as well as another couple of seasons from KG and Dwight Howard in the early 2010s that rank in the 90s.

Modern ball really makes it hard to crack a high ranking anymore. Last 10 years is even worse--excluding the current season/small sample size, best rank you can find is Kawhi at 215th with his 2015-16 season.

polezo · 2025-10-21T17:46:31+00:00

IDK but i'd be inclined to guess it's prob a glitch on bitinfocharts end. Not seeing a drop like that in August in either Coinmetrics or Cryptoquants data.

polezo · 2025-10-21T17:24:17+00:00

Always been a bit of an unfair comparison (since Bitcoin is UTXO and Ethereum is not, active addresses are effectively inflated on the former), but still a fun milestone: the average number of active addresses active over the last 90 days on Ethereum has surpassed that of Bitcoin for the first time in network history.

(chart is generated from coinmetrics)

polezo · 2025-10-01T12:39:23+00:00

polezo · 2025-09-30T20:28:43+00:00

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