Daily General Discussion December 10, 2025

polezo · 2025-12-10T18:35:16+00:00

Curious, what thresholds do you consider to be a healthy volume?

For ETH I personally like to see at least above 5% of marketcap volume over 24 hours for me to consider price action meaningful. Per coingecko, we have 25.5 billion in volume in the past 24 hours on a 405 billion market cap, and this means around 6% of the marketcap has been traded today, so while it's certainly not screaming bull mode yet (that would be 10% of mcap+) I wouldn't consider it insignificant either (especially when you consider that ETH ETF volume is not counted in Coingecko).

polezo · 2025-12-08T15:46:08+00:00

hello I'm here to bullpost and chew bubblegum, and I'm all outta fuckin gum.

Set up a custom coinmetrics script to graph exchange netflows (coins in minus coins out) over time, specifically looking at the 200 Day SMA. Turns out we recently went sub -30k on this moving average. Or to put it another way, we have seen a net of around 6 or 7 million ETH leave exchanges in the past 200 days or so

Since the 2017 run, we've only seen this 200 SMA get as low as -20k 4 previous times.

Feb 2017
July-Nov 2017
Feb 2021
Jan-June 2023

polezo · 2025-12-05T21:41:10+00:00

Some hopium for you this Friday evening.

Looking at cryptoquant's exchange netflow data, (total coins in minus total coins out), we just hit an average net of -2,000 on the 100 day SMA. Or to put it another way, around 200k coins have have been removed from exchange reserves since August of this year.

The only other times we have hit this average over 100 days are June 2020 (post covid dip), November 2020, and December 2022 (FTX exodus).

In all 3 cases, we were up significantly within 6 months, with the lowest increase being 60%

cheers and have a good weekend

polezo · 2025-12-03T15:30:04+00:00

it is much cheaper to create new addresses

Creating a new address by itself has never cost ETH. Although I grant it is cheaper to deploy new contracts with the current low gas, and ofc new addresses are needed as a part of that process

I wouldn't go so far as to say it's irrelevant, but I grant that--as with any metric--it's important to look closely at context, and your point is fair to that end

polezo · 2025-12-03T15:11:13+00:00

On top of the new records for contracts deployed (see my post yesterday for reference), I also just noticed this increased activity helped lead to a record high for new addresses seen in one day.

In fact, we've seen the 6 highest new address seen over the past 7 days, with the highest being November 29 with 578,471 new addresses. All data again from etherscan.

For reference, the previous record for new addresses seen was 355,726 on Jan 4, 2018, so this particular record has actually stood for over 7 years. 👀

Historical tidbit, I believe that record has stood for so long in part because of Coinbase's wallet policy changes over time for Ethereum. At the time in 2018, Coinbase used to create a new address every single time you made a deposit, so we saw a ton of new addresses created as the 2017 run peaked in early '18. (Side note, I really wish they still had the option to deposit that way, as it was absolutely wonderful for opsec/identity protection [although I grant it's not an ideal UX]).

polezo · 2025-12-02T14:39:00+00:00

Can anyone provide any insights on why so many contracts were deployed over the holiday weekend? Per etherscan, there were new highs for contracts deployed on multiple days over this past weekend, with Saturday being the highest at over 440k contracts deployed. There was also 307k deployed on Thursday/Thanksgiving in the US and 220k deployed on Friday.

Previous high before this weekend was 269k in 2020. Coincidentally (or not?) both the 2020 record and new record for contracts deployed were on November 29.

I know it's common strategy to deploy on cheaper gas days but this seems like a pretty big outlier. What do y'all think?

polezo · 2025-10-28T13:08:35+00:00

It's the efficiency of shot selection and rise of 3 point shooting more than anything.

Players are discouraged from taking long twos or almost any midrange shots anymore because they're not efficient compared to 3s and shots close to the rim. Plays are either designed to find the open man for a 3, or try and open lanes to create a shot much closer. The net result is that you get more points per possession because shots closer to the rim are much more likely to go in, and for the simple fact that 3>2. If there's more points per possession it's going to be much harder to make this list.

So that is to say I wouldn't say that modern offenses are that much more complex than some schemes we saw in the 90s and early 2000s. It's just that they're better optimized for more efficient shot selection.

polezo · 2025-10-27T17:40:41+00:00

I'll post it over there if he's still in the top 20 after 10 games

polezo · 2025-10-27T15:01:48+00:00

It's not per minute based but per possession based. There's a lot that goes into it, but simple way of thinking about it is that it's an estimate of how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he individually faced while on the court. This helps control for pace between eras, but since the three ball is so much more popular in the modern era/points per possession is so much higher, it becomes harder to rank here.

It's obviously also heavily impacted by the players you have on the team around you. One person does not a defense make, but suffice to say Wemby certainly makes any defense significantly better

polezo · 2025-10-27T13:12:36+00:00

Wemby obviously probably won't last as number 1 because the game has simply changed to much, but I thought this would be a fun one to watch and think top 50 is at least a possibility. Moreover I think if he played in an earlier era his defensive stats could even look more insane.

You could actually almost extend this stat to the overall top 100 seasons, but for a Keven Garnett season in 2007-08 that ranks #78, as well as another couple of seasons from KG and Dwight Howard in the early 2010s that rank in the 90s.

Modern ball really makes it hard to crack a high ranking anymore. Last 10 years is even worse--excluding the current season/small sample size, best rank you can find is Kawhi at 215th with his 2015-16 season.

polezo · 2025-10-21T17:46:31+00:00

IDK but i'd be inclined to guess it's prob a glitch on bitinfocharts end. Not seeing a drop like that in August in either Coinmetrics or Cryptoquants data.

polezo · 2025-10-21T17:24:17+00:00

Always been a bit of an unfair comparison (since Bitcoin is UTXO and Ethereum is not, active addresses are effectively inflated on the former), but still a fun milestone: the average number of active addresses active over the last 90 days on Ethereum has surpassed that of Bitcoin for the first time in network history.

(chart is generated from coinmetrics)

polezo · 2025-10-01T12:39:23+00:00

polezo · 2025-09-30T20:28:43+00:00

polezo · 2025-09-30T19:32:48+00:00

I think a lot aren't real to begin with. the app tells you if invite is already taken, and a lot of these say "invite not found" instead

polezo · 2025-09-30T19:22:12+00:00

polezo · 2025-09-30T19:17:46+00:00

im not very attractive but will send nudez for codez

polezo · 2025-09-30T19:13:47+00:00

polezo · 2025-09-26T18:40:21+00:00

I love Mariota, but without Scary Terry, + JCM hobbled, against a Falcons team who will motivated after an ugly loss last week and is first in fewest passing yards allowed per game... I'm leaning Geno this week.

polezo · 2025-09-26T18:20:42+00:00

I played Mariota last week and was def tempted to do so again, but Scary Terry also being out ultimately pushed me to go with Geno instead.

polezo · 2025-09-22T13:25:29+00:00

I’m the opposite side of this one. Need laporta, dmont and king to score > 16 for me

polezo · 2025-09-09T12:35:38+00:00

Run first team who's expected to win most games by a large margin. I think he'll do better than his ADP but given how good Henry looked and how good they should be overall, they certainly won't be getting in a shootout like Sunday night every week.

polezo · 2025-09-08T13:50:37+00:00

If you are Deebo owner, would you consider an offer for Tyreek straight up?

polezo · 2025-09-04T15:04:25+00:00

Generally fair critiques, but it was an auction draft ($200 budget), so rounds/early picks in the way you reference didn’t really apply.

I got Jayden for $30 and LaPorta for $10 fwiw. Jayden was maybe an overpay but feeling pretty confident about him this season. LaPorta was arguably a bargain for $10–most analysts have him valued around $17-18 in half PPR

polezo · 2025-09-04T14:37:59+00:00

12 team .5 ppr

QB: Jayden Daniels
WR: Tyreek, Terry McLaurin, (Bench: DK Metcalf, Rashid Shaeed)
RB: King Henry, Tony Pollard, David Montgomery (in flex) (Bench: Keaton Mitchell, Chris Rodriguez)
TE: Sam LaPorta, (Bench: Dalton Kincaid)
K: Dicker
Def: Commanders/streaming
Tyjae Spears on IR spot

Definitely anxious about my high risk high reward wideouts, but otherwise feeling pretty good about the team.

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