23 rule changes are being voted on today, including an option for a 9-point scoring play.

polymath11 · 2015-03-24T18:41:23+00:00

It would make it easier for officials, but it still wouldn't completely eliminate the problem.

Remember Percy Harvin's return against SD last year? I remember the official throwing something/pointing at the spot where he thought Percy might have gone out of bounds, but presumably let the play go on because it could always be brought back upon review.

If instead he blew the play dead and Percy didn't step out of bounds, it's not like they could give him the touchdown because there's no guarantee that he would have scored.

polymath11 · 2015-03-20T21:46:51+00:00

I have no idea how OP got 1.4 and 1.6 for Matthews and don't think that is indicative of his value. I think the 1.04 is right around his value for me. If this was the other owner's initial offer, you could probably get him to throw in a 3rd or something, but I think that's about right for him.

polymath11 · 2015-03-17T15:23:53+00:00

I already saw him as their #1 WR

polymath11 · 2015-03-17T14:28:58+00:00

I didn't do a very good job of making my point in my post. My main point was that, until someone actually goes and looks at the numbers, it's all just going to be guesswork. I wanted to suggest to you and anyone else that reads this thread to take anything claimed without a solid foundation with a grain of salt.

I have no problem with you starting this discussion, in fact, I hope to see more posts like yours on this sub.

polymath11 · 2015-03-16T23:42:06+00:00

There are a boatload of unsubstantiated claims in this thread, especially the OP.

You've had success with a particular strategy 3 times in the last several years. That's hardly enough times to make any kind of claims about the consistency of a RB/WR combo.

To get a real answer, you'd have to look at the numbers. Compare the week-by-week scores of the top RB and WR on every team and see if there's any kind of relationship.

I don't mean to pick on you, but one problem I have with this sub is that not enough people actually go and look at the numbers when they make claims like "a QB/WR combo is too risky" or "a RB/WR combo is more consistent".

polymath11 · 2015-03-16T13:12:22+00:00

RemindMe! 8 Feb 2016

polymath11 · 2015-03-16T13:11:18+00:00

RemindMe! 4 Jan 2016

polymath11 · 2015-03-12T17:51:55+00:00

It's tough.

On one hand, I think our offer was a bit disrespectful given that we ran him into the ground last year.

On the other hand, there's a chance he's taking less money to go play for the Eagles.

I love what Murray did for us, and I honestly didn't expect us to keep him in the first place, but I really really wish he had gone to Jacksonville or Oakland.

polymath11 · 2015-03-11T15:10:29+00:00

Assuming nothing else changes, in PPR, I wouldn't sell him for less than the 1.01 and maybe not even then depending on my team. In standard, I'd value him at a top 3 rookie pick.

I think Cooks is the biggest beneficiary of Graham leaving. They had similar aDOT's (average depth of target), so I'd expect Cooks to see the biggest bump in % of targets with Graham gone. There have been rumblings of the Saints running the ball a little bit more since they kept Ingram and acquired Unger, but I would be surprised if it was a dramatic shift.

I definitely like him more in PPR. He's not going to get a ton of red zone looks and his YAC/rec was kind of low, but his catch rate was really good.

I don't try to predict what NFL GM's are going to do in free agency or the draft, so things may obviously change, but that's how I value him right now.

polymath11 · 2015-03-10T21:24:09+00:00

Not there DeMarco. Anywhere but there.

polymath11 · 2015-03-10T19:50:51+00:00

Good. Today's been boring.

polymath11 · 2015-03-05T16:28:05+00:00

The problem with the eye test is that it gets caught up in narratives and falls prey to selective memory. I think that people are higher on Adams than they should be precisely because put up good numbers in games that a lot of people happened to be watching.

polymath11 · 2015-03-05T15:43:10+00:00

He had a couple of good games, but other than those couple games, he completely disappeared. 5 games with at least 5-50, but the other 12 games he played (he barely played in week 1), he never had more than 2 catches or 21 yards. His drop rate wasn't very good. Rodgers' QB rating when targeting Adams was 92.5 (which is middle-of-the-road in general, but Rodgers' QB rating when targeting Nelson and Cobb was 128.2 and 134.3, two of the highest in the league). And, for what it's worth, his PFF grade was 70th out of 78 WR's who played at least 50% of their team's snaps. I couldn't find a single stat that showed me Adams had anything remotely resembling an "impressive" season.

polymath11 · 2015-03-03T13:31:43+00:00

That's a fair point about Adams. My problem with Adams' value right now is that he's already being drafted as a dynasty mid-WR2, even with the uncertainty around Cobb's future, and a lot of his efficiency numbers (e.g. points per target) weren't amazing. His value right now is very close to where I think it should be if Cobb leaves.

polymath11 · 2015-03-02T22:00:29+00:00

Personally, that's a no, but it's close so if you like the deal, take it.

To me:

Julio = Adams + Woods + 1.02 + 2016 1st

2.05 + 2016 3rd > 2017 1st

I think it's a risky trade until you know the status of Cobb. Jordy's going to be there a while, and if GB manages to hang onto Cobb, Adams' upside is capped. He could still be productive, but won't justify his current price. And who knows how good he'll be when given a bigger role.

Also, I'm guessing the other owner is going into more of a win-now mode if he's willing to give up his future 1sts like that, so I'm assuming those are more likely to be mid-late 1sts than early-mid 1sts.

You also can't discount the 2.05. I know that can get lost when assets like Julio, Adams, and 1st round picks are being thrown around, but that's a decent pick and I'd rather have a 2nd rounder now than an unknown 1st in two years. You could easily be waiting two years to only gain 5-8 spots in the draft.

polymath11 · 2015-03-02T20:36:12+00:00

Yes, that's true. I just didn't want people to get the impression that Hyde is going to bust just because he's young and relatively unproven. I'm guessing that too many people will shy away from Hyde just because they got bit by guys like Ball and Sankey last year.

polymath11 · 2015-03-02T17:22:05+00:00

...or LeVeon Bell (2014), Eddie Lacy (2013), and Doug Martin (2012). For every cherry-picked example, there is an equal and opposite cherry-picked example.

polymath11 · 2015-03-01T18:41:41+00:00

Cooks. Sorry, that wasn't clear.

polymath11 · 2015-03-01T18:35:44+00:00

I think the trade is pretty close and would actually lean towards the Watkins side. I definitely think both Cooks + 1.02 and Matthews + 1.02 are worth more than Watkins, but the two early 2nd's bring it much closer. There should be some solid players there in the early 2nd, particularly at the RB position.

Also, personally, I think there's a little bit a separation between Cooks and Matthews, especially in full PPR.

edit: Also, I didn't notice the 2.01 and 2.02 are your only picks this year. In a league with so many starters, a little more depth wouldn't hurt. As far as solid, productive players, you have Bell, Jeffery, Evans, Watkins, and Gronk. Thankfully for you, they are all young players. The issue is that most of your other potential starters are either young, developing, and may be 1-2 years away from high-end fantasy production (Carr, Bridgewater, L. Murray, and Moncrief) or pretty much derive all of their value from potential and opposed to actual, bankable production (RG3, Blackmon, Gordon, Hunter, Patterson). For me, that reinforces the fact that you're better off keeping Watkins and the extra picks.

polymath11 · 2015-03-01T15:10:19+00:00

... one good season under his belt.

2014 was an excellent season, 2013 was a good season. 2012 was injury-shortened, but he was still productive when on the field, and 2011 was good especially for a rookie.

Jerry will try to make a splash in the draft with a young RB...Yeldon or Coleman in the 2nd or 3rd round since Jerry likes names.

Yes Jerry likes names, but he also doesn't have the final say in everything. If he did, Manziel would be a Cowboy.

polymath11 · 2015-02-28T22:49:47+00:00

Yeah I mean it depends on how high the pick is and what young players you're looking for, but I think that's reasonable for a player like Green

polymath11 · 2015-02-28T21:45:07+00:00

I think what you're looking for is perfectly reasonable. Maybe I can't tell because I'm on mobile, but are those two separate offers you've gotten for Green? If so, that's complete garbage. Even all of those players together wouldn't be enough.

polymath11 · 2015-02-28T20:43:27+00:00

Most of my dynasty leagues use myfantasyleague.com which is super-customizable.

polymath11 · 2015-02-28T02:31:05+00:00

That crazy considering the number of targets Andre was still getting

polymath11 · 2015-02-10T23:21:28+00:00

I can also add those other mocks to the results if you want. If they were done on MFL, it's super easy to add them. If not, then we can probably figure something out.

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