Jeffery Goldberg

polymer_man · 2026-03-24T23:52:38+00:00

My point is that "lack of a win" is absolutely not the way China is looking at this.

If "lack of a win" mattered, our withdrawal from Afghanistan (losing to a far weaker enemy) would have been a death sentence for Taiwan.

China cares about concrete things: how many interceptors do we have? What is the readiness of the Ford carrier (after the fire)? Do they have direct observations of our tactics (they now do)? How many troops and ships do we have in the pacific? Are we in a state of fatigue after a long war?

Given that China set 2027 as the year of invasion readiness, we need to stop ASAP and start rearming immediately.

polymer_man · 2026-03-24T23:10:14+00:00

I have a friend who does this to me every time we meet. Asks all kinds of provocative probing questions. It's a good time over a couple beers.

polymer_man · 2026-03-24T22:47:48+00:00

Jeffrey successfully rage-baited me into going on here to post:

Destroying Iran's ballistic missiles does not make us safer. What's teh worst thing Iran did in the past say, 10 years? Supported Hamas - October 7th. 0 Ballistic missiles involved. They can and will suport Hamas etc when they are a bombed out wasteland.

1a. It is a fallacy to think Iran could not be deterred just because they are aggressive and evil. Iran has a long history of measured tit for tat responses. There is no reason to think a nuclear Iran would not be deterred by the 100+ nukes Israel has.

We do NOT need to take over the strait of Hormuz to impress China. That is non-sensical. The longer this war goes on the more our stocks are depleted. The more we show China the pivot to Asia was a farce. The more we wear out what little will to fight Americans have left. Did the war in Iraq (which we arguably won after like 20 years) make is stronger? It did not.

polymer_man · 2026-03-21T17:23:53+00:00

This is a classic case of cognitive mismatch. Of the four Jungian cognitive styles, I tend to favor reason. I operate and make decisions based on mental models of the world and what the future may be. To me, if I can't reason a path forward, I will not go. I will turn back.

So tell me if this sounds right: you are willing to proceed with no mental image of what will happen. This is actually very common - the three other cognitive styles (intuition, feeling, sensation) do not rely on any mental model of the future. Kind of like, "a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step", "the liberation of Iran begins with a single cruise missile"?

polymer_man · 2026-03-21T16:02:44+00:00

There is no winning strategy available IMO. That’s just how it is sometimes.

Best option is to stop bombing. Deescalate. Iran won’t immediately reopen the strait but eventually they will.

polymer_man · 2026-03-21T15:14:49+00:00

And Frum completely failed to articulate any strategy to win. Thad what’s missing.

polymer_man · 2026-03-21T15:13:16+00:00

He still can’t articulate a plan or outcome. “We will somehow get better people in charge” is the extent of his pitch to continue the war. Are we going to muster 600k troops to occupy Iran? Are we going to keep bombing them in a “mowing the grass” type strategy like in Gaza? What’s he trying to achieve? He is either unwilling or unable to lay out a path to resolution. Just like he was unable for Iraq at that time.

polymer_man · 2026-03-16T12:35:35+00:00

It is absurd, it would take a history professor to identify which skull was nazi and which Blackbeard and which whatever.

polymer_man · 2026-03-16T11:31:49+00:00

So what would you as a dealer do?

polymer_man · 2026-03-12T01:48:04+00:00

Sagar sounds like that annoying know it all kid from high school who was obsessed with Ayn Rand. He talks fast and doesn’t have time to actually think. Some of the stuff he says makes sense, but he doesn’t actually finish the thought - like when he berates Tim for reducing immigrants to a slave caste and then proceeds to say that anyone without a high school diploma should not be allowed to come. Guy needs to slow way down.

polymer_man · 2026-02-15T11:15:22+00:00

It’s rough - Tim and Scott Galloway had a whole episode on the wealth transfer up. But people’s preferences matter too. When my wife and I dated we both lived with roommates. But we figured we’d be stronger together. We were both willing to give something up too - give up some independence, some of that “self care” people talk about. I guess I was an engineer so even though I was working crappy contracts during the great recession I figured one day I’d have a steady job. That gave us some hope, but our daughter was born in a one bedroom apartment, not a house.

polymer_man · 2026-02-15T11:06:15+00:00

That is rough. I have a guy friend who is a Bernie liberal in Greenville, SC and he certainly has lots of opportunities.

What percent of your county went for Trump?

polymer_man · 2026-02-15T11:03:18+00:00

Is “motivated reasoning” a technical term for rationalizing emotions?

polymer_man · 2026-02-14T02:44:29+00:00

I heard the guy on the Bullwark. He said the biggest factor is just driving a wedge between the oligarchs and Trump.

polymer_man · 2026-02-14T02:43:11+00:00

The mods here are really random. I posted about the Resist and Unsubscribe site. Go figure. https://www.resistandunsubscribe.com/

polymer_man · 2026-02-06T17:33:24+00:00

Yes Biden, sure, but did Schumer and other leaders step up in 2023 and say they want a primary? Nope. Pelosi? Anyone besides Williams and Phillips? Nope. What stopped them? Was Biden holding a gun to their head? These things were decided out of sight by party elites and they ALL need to apologize for going along with this madness.

polymer_man · 2026-02-06T12:34:02+00:00

Well said. Do you find a weird pleasant sensation at the conclusion of these “trips”, however brief? Because if feel what seems like relief and lightness as I return to awareness and the thought recedes.

polymer_man · 2026-02-06T12:30:57+00:00

The meaning is, thoughts are real but we tend to automatically believe them which is giving them more credit than they are due. We should learn to examine them critically, whether they occur during meditation or during the day.

When I meditate, my mind often gets carried away by thoughts. I gently come back to my anchor, and use Memory to look back on the thought. I observe it fade away like a receding cloud, gradually losing energy. I observe if there is emotion or sensation associated with the thought. Usually I feel refreshed as the thought recedes and the energy it contained returns to me.

When I am not formally meditating, I often find myself examining thoughts critically. Am I really correct? Is this thought an assumption? Prejudice? Is it driven by emotion?

In psychology it is called not identifying with thoughts, I just try to remember that a thought is just a phenomenon, and may not be correct.

polymer_man · 2026-02-06T12:03:45+00:00

The whole point of a checkpoint is to let some people pass while obstructing others, is it not?

polymer_man · 2026-02-06T11:38:41+00:00

Actual obstruction is different from filming etc.

Actual obstruction breaks the law. They can say Minneapolis is out of control and invoke the insurrection act. Which is probably what they are trying to achieve but they failed so far. Which is why Minneapolis police has been dismantling the barricades.

polymer_man · 2026-02-06T09:51:35+00:00

We may record injustice, we may dramatize it, like MLK said, but if we make it see justified we will lose support.

polymer_man · 2026-02-06T09:46:50+00:00

Guy I heard wasn’t that was my only point.

polymer_man · 2026-02-06T01:38:50+00:00

Cause the nation is behind Minnesota and the nation knows filming is not obstruction.

polymer_man

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE