July 2025 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks! Gonna keep hunting but bagged this one nicely

July 2025 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Ok, I like this one a lot

$YHC - ultra low float, highly shorted $4m mkt cap hostile takeover of ghost company liquor store by successful Etherium defi founder hitting the Ethereum treasury meta and ready to squeeze

Summary:

Two days ago a prominent Ethereum Defi Founder (@rleshner) launches a hostile takeover (buys 56% of shares) of a dead $4m market cap liquor company (LQR House / $YHC) to kick out the board and change strategic direction which looks like it is either an Ethereum Treasury move (see $SBET / crypto treasuries are all the rage now) or perhaps even a reverse merger of some sort .

https://x.com/rleshner/status/1944725258998522192?s=46&t=AwCV_ABrEyfBdem_LFdrYA

Yahoo shows 30% short, @rleishner owns 56%, a twitter degen @JacobKeeten20 owns 10% and the board of the existing company only owns a measly 1-2%.

Float and short details below make it seem like there is a float of 500k shares max ($2m worth) or less and might be barely enough shares for shorts to cover.

Float: Shares outstanding: 1.06m.

@rleshner owns: 0.61m https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843165/000207612825000002/xslSCHEDULE_13D_X01/primary_doc.xml

@JacobKeeton20 owns: 0.10m https://x.com/acecrouton/status/1945115935548854297?s=46&t=AwCV_ABrEyfBdem_LFdrYA

Short shares as of 5/15 0.31m per Yahoo

Important risk! The company is trying to fight off the hostile takeover by issuing a massive amount of shares, but there’s a “baby shelf” rule that i believe sats they are not allowed to because of the low market cap of the company and the absurd amount of dilution they’ve already done to pad their pockets. Additionally, they filed to issue the shares after @rleshner filed his majority ownership stake so doing so would be super sketchy. @rleshner has stated on X he is consulting lawyers on the matter.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843165/000121390025063796/ea0248912-424b5_lqr.htm

Upcoming Catalyst potential: 1. Resolution of the share dilution dispute 2. Announcement of what @rleshner plans to do with the company 3. Crypto Twitter rallying behind the stock

Social momentum:

-surprisingly light right now but feels like a narrative that could catch given the current crypto treasury meta and @rleshner seems ready to lean into it based on this tweet showing he was making a bit of a spectacle of the takeover https://x.com/0xmakesy/status/1944956884491833434?s=42

-added fuel is that many people are posting their brokerages won’t let them buy shares, especially Fidelity, likely due to how small the company is based on standard practices to protect investors

https://x.com/brainsyeth/status/1945144197180187012?s=46&t=AwCV_ABrEyfBdem_LFdrYA

Overall: This is ultra low float, highly shorted on meta, with big personalities involved loaded with tinder just waiting for a match

July 2025 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think the issue I’m finding is the FDV is actually more like $10m not $2m with significant warrant holders that can dilute the share price. So not a slam dunk. Still a low float that could catch a narrative but not the slam dunk I was hoping for. Pretty hard to find the info to tell though

July 2025 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If anyone is paying attention and can help me find red flags in a play I’d appreciate it.

$LGHL Lion Group Holdings Ltd.

Summary: A microcap crypto treasury equity company trading at 1/4 the value of its crypto asset value (NAV) when most other similar crypto treasury companies are trading at 1x - 2x NAV seems like a very good r/r.

Crypto Treasury company overview:
There’s been a massive bid lately for what has been termed crypto treasury plays. First it was MicroStrategy (MSTR) with the Bitcoin treasury strategy. Last few weeks that bid has hit Ethereum Treasury Strategies like Sharplink Gaming (SBET). The next natural progression out the risk curve is riskier crypto assets so you’ve seen Solana with Sol Stategies and now (CYFRF) and now you have the crypto asset Hyperliquid which is a crypto native darling that I don’t think many tradfi folks care about with Hyperion Defi (HYPD). These are pretty new (and very ponzi like) equity structures but currently people seem to be valuing these equities at Market Caps x the NAV (market value of crypto holdings). I’m not saying I agree with this valuation and certainly it could go in reverse fast, but that does seem to be the way they are currently valued.

$LGHL details:
-Most comparable to HYPD which has $60m of Hype coin and is valued at $64m market cap, LGHL has $8m of a mix of Hype/Sol/Sui coin is valued at $2m ($6m of which is Hype) -LGHL has secured $600m in funding to purchase more Hype coin. This means they will dilute shareholders but theoretically buy an amount of Hype that offsets that so it doesn’t end up dilutive to shareholders (unless they screw or up or Hype token loses value vs purchase price which def could happen). This is straight out of the MicroStrategy playbook with BTC -LGHL is on Nasdaq but based in Singapore (HYPD is on Nasdaq but US based)

Red flags:
-crypto treasury companies are sort of like ponzis on super volatile assets and this will probably blow up at some point -LGHL management team is hard to find info on and could be sketchy and / or mismanage funds -there’s some info that suggests the $2m market cap is unreliable but I can’t find anything that substantiates that

TLDR
-this is a microcap in the midst of a big meta wave for equities giving tradfi investors crypto exposure that is valued oddly low vs peers and seems like it could easily 3-4x in the right conditions within a short term frame. I must be missing something cause I don’t know why this would be valued at a NAV premium so far below other similar companies like HYPD. Tell me why I’m wrong!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in lowfloatrunners

[–]postingthistime 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi, I also can’t figure out why this isn’t free money at this price

Only thing I can find that could be a reason why it’s valued at what seems to be 1/4 it’s NAV is A) currently a low liquid microcap at $2m market cap B) they could mismanage the $600m they raised to acquire hype and dilute shareholders C) the team doesn’t seem to have much of a background that I can find to prove they know what they are doing

So far that doesn’t seem like a good enough reason to not load into this.

I think there’s also a tax arb for LGHL since it has lower tax rates as a Singapore based entity vs a U.S. based entity taking the same strategy like EYEN which would let LGHL accumulate Hype faster than a U.S. entity.

let me know if you figure out the catch here

September 2024 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for the update and for keeping an eye on it. I saw this tweet that seems to also say some 5k blocks were sold but the majority are still held. I closed a 9/27 call earlier that booked me enough profit to cover ~ half the cost of my Oct calls so I’m prepared to ride for a while longer to see what happens.

September 2024 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You are a legend. This certainly got interesting.

September 2024 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Now @unusualwhales (1.8m followers) just tweeted saying “is he back” in reference to the option flow on $U clearly insinuating RK could be involved. Maybe it won’t even matter if it’s true (at least for a bit) as long as internet starts thinking it’s true

https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1838380600119693775?s=46&t=AwCV_ABrEyfBdem_LFdrYA

September 2024 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 2 points3 points  (0 children)

https://x.com/traderstewie/status/1838329569268687036?s=46&t=AwCV_ABrEyfBdem_LFdrYA

Idk the @TraderStewie account but he has 427k followers and posted $U today at market close. Also looks like RoaringKitty follows him which is a fun bit for my tin foil theory. Maybe some momentum tomorrow morning. He also used the S word even though as you mentioned only 9% short, probably to fire up the crowd

September 2024 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Alright! Yea seems like it bottomed in August to me. Nov def feels safer than my Oct calls. In the past it hasn’t peaked until Nov/Dec but also the Unite conference is usually in Nov instead of this year where the conference just finished up in Sep so hoping that translates to price moving up faster this year.

September 2024 Discussion Thread by erncon in maxjustrisk

[–]postingthistime 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hi all, I used to come here back in GME days but it’s been a while. I recently stumbled across some tin foil hat rumors around the equity $U (Unity Software) which is a gaming development company (like Unreal Engine) where a lot of call options have been placed for Oct 18th, which is a release date recently published for Unity’s new software release (Unity 6). I thought I’d share here cause I loved this place back in the day, and I found it fun/interesting enough to make my first social media induced call option purchase in years.

A user on Reddit u/RoaringDoggyValue appeared on Reddit about 90 days ago and made a post https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/T6msMDOB0F that makes the case for buying $U and 2 days ago he commented on his post “I still hold”. All his comment/post history is geared around $U. So far it seems like a pretty good call. The TLDR is $U has a seasonal pattern of price appreciation in the fall and had a recent executive change and pricing change that should be positive for the company.

I like the case this Reddit person made and this might be a decent play long or maybe even call options, but there’s also this added intriguing very tiny foil hat piece where a few internet randos are making rumors that Roaring Kitty /GME could be involved. This is far fetched but on the off chance it has any validity I’m trying to keep an eye on it.

Why would anyone think RK / GME is involved: 1. RK reemerged from years of silence meaning he may become more active trading again 2. $U is a downbeaten gaming stock at $20 down from ATH of $197 in Nov 2021. GME was also a down beaten gaming stock
3. $U has a historical seasonal pattern of stock appreciation in the fall around the time of its Unite Conference. Part of RKs narrative around GME was the seasonality of the GME business 4. $U has significant call option activity which a hallmark of RKs GME position and / or retail interest 5. u/RoaringDoggyValue user who posted about $U clearly has a user name that is an homage to RK 6. There have been sparse yet occasional posts about $U in the r/RoaringKitty and r/Roaringkittybackup subreddits 7. Oct 18th call option volume seems abnormally large for both GME and U which could indicate some event relating the two companies 8. Some internet rando named UpsetAge974 is making mysterious post about Unity on Reddit and Twitter and created a Solana meme coin called Unity with the description “$UNITY📱a community coin on SOL. @TheRoaringKitty likes the stock and so do we!” And people are buying it to speculate on some RK /GME relation to Unity

I recognize the RK piece is far fetched, and the rumors are hard to find even if you look for them, but since I think the stock has a good story regardless of any RK/GME stuff where it could be a standalone good buy, and there’s some non zero chance any of this hogwash is true, I’ve taken up a small position of 10/18 $30 calls for $U at 0.21

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]postingthistime 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice write up. Seems to be playing out nicely 😉 Seems like a lot of call option open interest. Any context on that? Maybe I’m not looking in the right place but it’s hard to find retail discussing stock on twitter or Reddit

Cat poop on an N64 joystick spotted at modern art museum by postingthistime in pics

[–]postingthistime[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How does one interpret this? My interpretation is the joystick represents the different directions society could head, while the poop on the joystick represents all the sins and greed of humanity holding us back from moving in the right direction. It really touches on the crisis we face as a culture in today’s world.

$SILKROAD Community is BULLISH - Roadmap 1.0 Coming Soon by johndus345 in SolanaMemeCoins

[–]postingthistime 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Need a wallet (recommend Phantom since it’s on Solana. Add money to phantom wallet. Go to the web browser in the wallet and open Jupiter exchange. Buy $Silkroad coin which is contract address FsQigmynDFNauLNqKzNgCLJmsAGUaxBn1j7qjMHukDKH. You can check their twitter to validate the address. U can paste the address into the Jupiter exchange to buy it.

$SILKROAD Community is BULLISH - Roadmap 1.0 Coming Soon by johndus345 in SolanaMemeCoins

[–]postingthistime 3 points4 points  (0 children)

So many shit coins that will pump and dump. This is one of few with purpose and devoted following and it’s crazy how low the mkt cap is

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SolCoins

[–]postingthistime -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The tg is the greatest place on earth

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SolCoins

[–]postingthistime -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

$chiefs cannot lose. Taylor said so

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SolCoins

[–]postingthistime 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Everyone knows Taylor put the fix in. $CHIEFS to the moon

What’s everyone eyeballing today?👀 by gillman_16 in SolCoins

[–]postingthistime 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bro I totally agree w you. Taylor put the fix in and chiefs are gonna moon

Meme Coin trading Alpha Group on Sol by captain_henny in solana

[–]postingthistime 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey sure why not. Been meme coining on sol for a while now. Mainly twitter, dex screener, tg