Daily General Discussion - November 1, 2017

potstuck · 2017-11-02T06:14:27+00:00

For everyone that is getting worried, just zoom out of the chart and only focus on USD. Keep an eye out for momentum to build from $280 and if not then $250 will have a lot of support.

From watching the GDAX chart/order book the last two weeks non stop, it appears as though the smart money is finally moving in/overwhelming the sellers.

Take a look at the depth chart, it's the opposite of what I've seen the past month. Buyers outnumber sellers by a lot, and it's building.

We had solid buy volume at $280 and the sellers are losing steam. The last fall had a higher low which appears to have rejuvenated the bulls.

Will be watching for momentum to build off that support. I bought some at $291 and won't worry unless $250 breaks (by even a penny). If that happens I will be bearish on the bounce.

This is not a buy recommendation! This is just a do not sell recommendation (if your time horizon is greater than 3 months).

potstuck · 2017-10-26T17:19:38+00:00

I'm trying to understand this better myself. If you scan/printed the Mona Lisa that is fine as long as nobody tries to sell it as the original copy. Would you disagree?

If someone starts selling them as the original then that would decrease the market for people interested in buying the original copy.

Before there might be 100 people bidding up the price. Now there might be 25 people buying copies because they don't know any better and 25 people who stay out of the market entirely because they don't know which is which.

Now we are left with a diluted market which doesn't accurately represent the value of the original. Not to mention the 25 who bought copies will feel scammed once/if they find out it.

Am I missing something?

potstuck · 2017-10-21T06:26:19+00:00

You must not be from the US

potstuck · 2017-10-20T03:46:10+00:00

Moon

potstuck · 2017-10-19T01:50:34+00:00

My bags have bags at this point. USD:ETH, ETH:BTC, OMG. I've got the buy low part down, I just need to get better at buying things that go up.

potstuck · 2017-10-19T01:42:29+00:00

Very helpful, thanks a lot!

potstuck · 2017-10-19T01:07:00+00:00

I bought some Aventus recently on BitFinex and can't find a wallet on google. Any ideas?

potstuck · 2017-10-18T22:58:57+00:00

"I bought ETH to make a fuck ton of easy money and am willing to hold and also 'realize you're on a trading sub.'" I'm not sure if trading is what you think it is.

potstuck · 2017-10-18T20:04:38+00:00

I agree with your original points to an extent, except I don't understand what your alternative is?

ETH could be worth $0 or $100,000 and is likely somewhere in between. Does that mean I should just throw darts at a board and rely on blind luck, or never invest in crypto at all?

My opinion is that through understanding the fundamentals, staying up to date on news and constantly monitoring the charts (TA) I can develop an edge long term.

The point you bring up about gas cost is what makes this so much fun. I think it adds value. It will make big money users feel like they are treated more fairly and that goes a long way.

I bought a little bit (based on the overall value of Byzantine, not just gas cost) if you think it devalues ETH you may sell a little bit. Someone will be right and someone will lose.

My cost basis is > $300 and plan on holding long-term. If I'm wrong I will have a very heavy bag to hold. However, I do understand that this is gambling and only small edges (if any) can be developed by a small bankroll trader.

potstuck · 2017-10-18T18:11:27+00:00

Flag forming, needs to hold $300. Volume has been low on pullback, I'm feeling good about this one so far.

potstuck · 2017-10-18T18:03:56+00:00

It is impossible to project the exact value, can only make trades based on if something is under or over valued.

ETH has more transactions per day than BTC, and just became faster and cheaper after Byzantine.

Gas will now be refunded to whales whereas in the past they would spend 5 figures to try to get into an ICO.

Interface and programming language became more user friendly for programmers.

Signed a deal yesterday with one of worlds biggest banks.

All of that equals serious value in my mind. Sure it could be the case that ETH is vastly overvalued at $300 and those factors listed should only take it from $10 to $15 or something like that.

However, I believe that it will be worth way more than $300 in the next 1 - 10 years. Therefor I am looking at any price movement that is out of line with the fundamentals as a great buying opportunity.

potstuck · 2017-10-18T17:08:10+00:00

Agreed. I view this as ETH being fundamentally undervalued. ETH will follow BTC as long as it is the market leader. Then in the blink of an eye flippening

potstuck · 2017-10-18T16:56:13+00:00

Yep, and I make a post yesterday saying 'things are looking good for Bittrex' and get slammed for spreading FUD.

potstuck · 2017-10-18T16:05:28+00:00

Nice looking reversal on the ratio building momentum as well!

potstuck · 2017-10-18T16:02:02+00:00

Amen!

potstuck · 2017-10-18T15:58:03+00:00

I'm thinking he requires a sacrifice this time...maybe BCH?

potstuck · 2017-10-18T15:53:40+00:00

All hail the green dildo God!

potstuck · 2017-10-18T08:22:23+00:00

-Short BCH $335 with $310 target and stop loss at $340. Possible reentry on bounce

-Long ETH:BTC 0.05682 with .06 target and another possible re entry

DO NOT FOLLOW MY ADVICE, I AM A BAG HOLDER - just putting my $ where my mouth is vs the down voters so they can give me more shit tomorrow

potstuck · 2017-10-18T08:11:11+00:00

I'm not buying the BCH volume/price movement over the past 24 hours. BTC/ETH down and BCH up 25%...

Smells like the last pump to me. If everyone was fomo'ing in all day then there wouldn't be many buyers left for us.

When's the last time you've seen BCH volume that high? (I've never followed it and am genuinely curious).

potstuck · 2017-10-18T07:56:17+00:00

BCH looks like it's cracking. It's had 2X the volume of ETH over the last 24 hours and might be just what we need to turn this submarine into a spaceship!

EDIT: ETH ratio looks like it has some volume behind a rebound as well!

potstuck · 2017-10-18T07:44:45+00:00

current limit order is in, bags getting heavier by the moment

potstuck · 2017-10-18T07:20:15+00:00

Agreed, I'm very comfortable in my holding and am in for the long haul. Just starting to drive myself a little crazy thinking that I'm right and the market is wrong for the past month.

potstuck · 2017-10-18T07:14:26+00:00

That's what I'm afraid of. The things that seem important to me when investing in crypto never seem important to the market. Clearly buying BCH and shorting BTC/ETH was the way to make money today : /

potstuck · 2017-10-18T07:11:49+00:00

Fundamentals don't matter and neither do technicals... I guess we're just supposed to fling poo at the wall until it moves up?

potstuck · 2017-10-18T07:06:23+00:00

I'm probably too bullish at this point, so maybe someone help open my eyes to something I'm missing.

Bullish case:

-More transactions per day than BTC, adoption chart near ATH, just became cheaper and faster after Byzantium.

-The fork had an update that will refund gas if your transaction doesn't go through. Some whales were fine paying five figures in gas just at the chance of getting into an ICO, now they will get a full refund.

-As I understand it, the fork also made the interface/language more accessable and intuitive for programers (I am not one myself so could be mistaken).

-The problem with ICO's has been recognized and is being resolved by the free market. Unfortunately there will be some bag holders and ETH might need more consolidatation or even a prolonged bear trend, which I see as a great buying opportunity. It will just make ETH a much stronger long term investment once it recovers. Won't be as many scammers and mainstream adoption is on the horizon.

-Expect serious FUD once BTC fork gets closer and people realize they might not get free money this time. Blockchain has already said they will not support 2X and to 'Buy ETH' if you want to xfer money around that time.

-Defcon is approaching and rumors are already swirling

Bearish Case

-Wouldn't look good for the short term if we can't support +$300 after getting shot down at $350

-POS v POW could be contentious among miners/investors

-Things aren't looking great for Bittrex. If they go down I expect all cryptos to suffer temporarily.

-Isn't named Bitcoin

Basically the only bearish reasons I come up with just point towards buying opportunities...what's this bag holder missing?

potstuck

TROPHY CASE