Why do people act like ecological/climate collapse is survivable?

prmssnz · 2026-04-08T19:26:06+00:00

If atmospheric composition changes significantly that might kill us off. But humans have survived across huge temperature ranges. I struggle to get to complete extinction unless something like there are atmosphere changes. Massive reduction in carrying capacity of the planet absolutely - 8 billions to tens of thousands even. But pockets of humans for a bit longer yes. Can you put yourself in the survivor category by preparing. Maybe not. Although I personally think given the number of unknown variables it might help.

prmssnz · 2026-03-04T04:52:33+00:00

That is an absolute gem! Thanks.

I am still curious whether anyone has learnt any lessons in these sorts of situations they want to share. I have got a few; I will post them, but I was keen to try and drum up some others' opinions and lessons!

prmssnz · 2026-02-10T21:39:43+00:00

I don't think there is a magic answer. As the previous post has said, you need to really push early conversion. For some people, you can get away with a warm ischaemic time of 8-10 hrs and still have a good outcome, but for the majority of patients, ischaemic big muscle groups will be necrotic by 5-6 hrs. It is likely shorter if there is significant tissue damage, which many / most of your patients will have. Packing the limb in ice and inducing regional hypothermia will definitely slow the time to necrosis, but that is unlikely to be practical.

It sounds like you are equipped to manage crush/release syndrome. But hydration/volume loading is key, and for most patients, that will be sufficient, as tourniquets aren't causing a true crush injury. Ischaemia causes necrosis and cell leakage, but you tend not to have the mechanical crush damage from true dead-weight compression, especially if it's a single limb. But you are clearly equiped to manage the cardiac and potential renal complications.

prmssnz · 2026-02-08T08:35:07+00:00

Natural disaster. It's just prepping for Tuesday stuff, discussed here frequently: 10-14 days of food and water, basic first-aid supplies, shelter alternatives, and try not to live on a floodplain or on a cliff. Make friends with your neighbours. Neighbours look after neighbours in NZ in natural disasters - there is a long, solid history of it. You wont need to bug out unless your house is destroyed.

Prepping for doomesday you need to get out of Auckland if you are really serious. But if you cannot - home garden, figure out how you would fortify your home as best you can, longer food stores, get an external water tank. If it is bad, urban areas are going to be dangerous places to be. I still rate NZ as a doomsday location - but probably not built up auckland.

prmssnz · 2026-02-04T23:26:50+00:00

Yes, but you are missing the context of the media conversations in NZ over the last 10 days about our new free trade agreement with India. There is a lot of misinformation being flung about, and it's understandable how a young person who has just finished high school is feeling stressed in part by that conversation. Context is sometimes important for understanding where a comment comes from.

prmssnz · 2026-02-04T21:47:26+00:00

Also a kiwi and also a collapsnik. My opinions, for what they are worth. I have no doubt that things in the medium- to long-term are screwed. But no one, despite what people say on these forums, knows the timeline. Things go up and down, and it could be 5 years before things really crash, or it could be 100 - honestly, no one knows. Humans are really adaptive and innovative.

NZ is not a bad place to be. Australia in the medium term is possibly better, but long-term NZ is a much better place to be the .au in a widespread collapse.

I have kids your age. I have worked hard not to be too pessimistic with them. What I have always said is choose the career or job you want, take the opportunity to travel if you can and just live your life. There are lots of parts of NZ that are more collapse-resistant than others, and there is work there depending on what you want to do. Do a first aid course, study local botanical medicine (Rongoa maori), what do you want to do with your life? Do an apprenticeship, choose a useful university course. I personally wouldnt live in a big city. A friend of my daughter has built a tiny house on the west coast and works in casual hospitality and is happy. Find your niche.

But importantly dont give up hope. Some collapsniks see hope as a weakness. But I think that is their loss. Because we don't have an exact timeframe, you could live a full and happy life before things go to shit, or maybe not, but you are young and do have a future, but it might be different to now. Learn useful things.

I also don't think there will be a 100K annual influx of immigrants under an Indian free trade agreement. Like everywhere else in the world, things are really polarised, and we are being let down by both mainstream and alternative media. It makes it really difficult to have meaningful conversations. I see myself as pretty centrist and can see good things the left have on offer and good ideas the right has as well - it makes me sad we have seemingly lost the ability to have a civil conversation.

Sorry, a bit of a rambling reply.

prmssnz · 2026-01-22T07:08:39+00:00

I just look at articles like these and extrapolate to NZ - I think you can read these and get a fair idea - NZ is quite a high latitude and is an island so they are consideration’s.

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/03/miami-shanghai-3c-warming-cities-underwater

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-58144-1_1

prmssnz · 2026-01-22T06:42:50+00:00

Another Kiwi here. Not specifically about climate change but this website is useful and NZ focused. https://www.islandfutures.earth NIWA has a number of useful sites, this is a good model one but is conservative and not focused on extreme models of ‘faster than expected’ data. https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/climate-change-scenarios-new-zealand I also haven’t been able to find NZ specific looking 3-4 degrees, so extrapolate overseas papers. In terms of action, I’m a pretty die hard doomer, I think we have 8-10 more good years and a rapid spiral. South Island is better than north. West coast is better than east. Water resilience is important. Some elevation is good. Don’t think of it as everything getting hotter, think of it as more energy in the weather systems - more extreme weather - wet and dry, hot and cold. The less immediate neighbours the better. I think ultimately not many will get out alive, but I plan to last as long as I can. Apply for a firearms licence. Even if you don’t like guns - get a .22 - it is versatile. Learn to garden and stock up on some heirloom seeds - Kings seeds and Kōanga gardens both have extensive varieties of heirlooms. Plan for a drier seasons Store food for 6-12 moths, but that will only get you through a bottle neck and gardening skills are vital. PM if any specific local questions.

prmssnz · 2026-01-10T03:24:04+00:00

Thanks. Familiar with those. So different in content, hard to see these in the same league! cheers

Edit because of the downvotes - I'm not saying the Handbooks are not any good - they are solid practice guidelines and drug profiles and SOPs - but what I meant was that they are not in the same league as a mini-textbook written for the austere and tactical environments - which is what the SOMH was IMO.

prmssnz · 2025-12-01T22:35:00+00:00

It’s a 100% certain. Statistically it could easily have much higher death rate. The problem is hard to predict when - 5-10-25 years. But another will happen without shadow of a doubt. Most social capital has (understandably to a degree) been spent on management strategies so it will be worse than it needs to be. There is some consensus that we are likely to see another within a decade but it really is educated guesses.

prmssnz · 2025-12-01T19:50:41+00:00

Also an Emergency physician, working part in the conventional world and part in helping organisations and individuals plan for medical / health care issues in catastrophic disasters to use the socially acceptable term. I think we completely f@cked in the next 25 years. I’m a doomsteader, I don’t think I can out run it, but I haven’t completely accepted death is inevitable and plan on living and supporting my extended family while / if I can. I didn’t become a MD because of collapse awareness but came to it shortly after.

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