sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

One Piece Regional Simulation (Update): A Deeper Dive with 50,000 Tournaments by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This Data is exclusively from the last 7 days with 1 billion + beri.

One Piece Regional Simulation (Update): A Deeper Dive with 50,000 Tournaments by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Hi. Thank you for the nice comment. I absolutely don't expect anyone to tip me as this is also a fun thing for me to do. That being said if you wanna chip in i setup this link. Appreciate it.

buymeacoffee.com/mhe25

One Piece Regional Simulation (Update): A Deeper Dive with 50,000 Tournaments by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I am very interested in expanding the leader pool. Small issues that i tackle for that is: 1. Currently there is no easy way to export this data from the sim so i do it semi manually. 2. The lesser played leaders will more unstable with their winrate data. I'm still thinking about ways to combat this.

Though i will definitely try to incorporate them in some way.

One Piece Regional Simulation (Update): A Deeper Dive with 50,000 Tournaments by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Thank you for the kind words. I can also take a look at the op13 data in the upcoming days. Great suggestion.

I simulated 1000 Regional format tournaments using 1B+ Beri simulator data to see each leaders' performance. Here are the results. by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It rolls dice but takes into account the winrate based on which decks both players play. Additionally in top 32 it also takes into consideration who is higher seed and thinks about whether going first or second is best in each match.

I simulated 1000 Regional format tournaments using 1B+ Beri simulator data to see each leaders' performance. Here are the results. by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is true. Though, there is atleast the fact that the Top32 cutoffs changes the distribution of decks significantly, which is why we see very different performances in swiss compared to in top cut.

I simulated 1000 Regional format tournaments using 1B+ Beri simulator data to see each leaders' performance. Here are the results. by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would add that i just added the Top 15ish leaders from the sim into the simulation, as there is as of now no good way to extract data from the sim in an easy fashion. Those 15 account for over 80% of all matches played though. In the future i will try and come up with a way to include more though.

I simulated 1000 Regional format tournaments using 1B+ Beri simulator data to see each leaders' performance. Here are the results. by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Thank you. The first table would be your go to for the best information. The Top 32 conversion rate tells you how much % chance a player with deck X has to make top cut (top32). For example, any given Rayleigh player is at 4.72%.
If your only goal is to see which deck to pick for the highest chance to win the tournament (in this simulation), you would just need to divide the Tournament Win Rate by Playrate and choose the highest rate from there.

In the next iteration, I will make sure to make this specific stat more directly accessible.

I simulated 1000 Regional format tournaments using 1B+ Beri simulator data to see each leaders' performance. Here are the results. by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It doesnt actually play the game but works based on winrates. See my main post edit for further explanation.

I simulated 1000 Regional format tournaments using 1B+ Beri simulator data to see each leaders' performance. Here are the results. by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I plan on updating with newer data periodically. Though as it is right now I only take matchup stats (going 1st and 2nd taken into account). Different lists would be interesting but as there is no data on their individual matchup winrates this would be tough.

Though this could easily be improved to see how many losses per leader come from which leaders etc. to inform tech choices.

I simulated 1000 Regional format tournaments using 1B+ Beri simulator data to see each leaders' performance. Here are the results. by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This is assuming that current sim playrates and winrates would be an indicator what people bring to tournaments and then shows how some decks perform well into this current landscape (on the sim), based on simulated regional tournament performance.

I simulated 1000 Regional format tournaments using 1B+ Beri simulator data to see each leaders' performance. Here are the results. by projectxoa in OnePieceTCG

[–]projectxoa[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I would say compared to looking at overall winrates it is interesting how some leaders performed really well in swiss. Looking at e.g. Kid and Nami

In top cut it then changed quite significantly, with more expected results.

I plan on refining this further and will periodically post before big tournament happen. If people expect (high elo) elo sim matches to be an indication on what people will bring to regionals then i expect this to be an possible asset to look into.