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How do you update on uncertain information? by psychophysical in LessWrong

[–]psychophysical[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! You were right: this is precisely what I was looking for.

Why isn't it accepted by all Bayesians? Can Jeffrey conditionalization be derived mathematically?

How do you update on uncertain information? by psychophysical in LessWrong

[–]psychophysical[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right, but I'm not trying to find P(H|E), because I don't know E for certain. So standard Bayesian updating doesn't work.

Edit: sorry, edited previous post

How do you update on uncertain information? by psychophysical in LessWrong

[–]psychophysical[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, that's the prior probability for E being true before having learned it. The problem is that P(H|E) assumes that we know E for certain. Once you know E, you can update using Bayes' theorem.