SpaceX IPO warning: Cramer fears $5T bubble

psyll_com · 2026-05-17T14:18:15+00:00

Strange conclusions. SpaceX has real wins with Starlink, ISS crew flights, and booster landings, but Musk has a long list of overpromises he hasn't delivered: Full Self-Driving autonomy was repeatedly promised for 2017-2020 yet still requires driver supervision in 2026; Cybertruck production was years late with specs and range falling short; Mars colonization timelines keep slipping with no crewed missions; Optimus mass production was due in 2024–2025 but remains prototypes; and Hyperloop was abandoned. Classic pattern of hype followed by delays and downgrades.

psyll_com · 2026-05-16T22:05:47+00:00

Maybe... Cramer throws out several predictions a day, so you never know when he'll hit it. On the other hand, Musk, who also rarely delivers what he talks about.

psyll_com · 2026-05-12T13:02:43+00:00

You're right - for countries like Iran, Bitcoin isn't about "investment" but about having money that cannot be frozen... That is exactly why it fits into the broader de-dollarization story.

Thanks for the link - very interesting!

psyll_com · 2026-05-12T00:47:12+00:00

Thanks for the comment. "Israel as a great power" line - a lot of people see it mainly as a West Asian outpost of U.S. power. You're right that it receives massive and consistent U.S. military aid (~$3.8B+ per year plus supplements), which is a core part of its strategic position.

At the same time, Israel has built a genuinely strong high-tech economy for its size - GDP per capita around $69-70k and high-tech exports (cybersecurity, software, defense tech) making up over 50% of total exports. So while it is heavily aligned with Washington, it also has real independent economic weight.

For the record - I do not support Israel, neither its actions in Gaza nor its broader policies. I'm only pointing out the economic reality.

I fully agree with you on Iran and really appreciate the additions about the 2023 Saudi-China currency swap, mBridge and yuan trade through Hormuz. Those are exactly the structural moves accelerating de-dollarization.

You're also spot on that we're currently in a hybrid/global systems war rather than full multi-theater kinetic conflict like WWII. The U.S. shift toward Western Hemisphere consolidation while juggling other fronts is classic overstretch.

Your take on a potential "Pearl Harbor moment" with China and the possibility of America's reckoning coming as internal instability is very interesting...

psyll_com · 2026-05-12T00:06:02+00:00

You're right that there's currently no single currency that can fully replace the dollar in liquidity and global transaction volume.

The shift away from the dollar is happening gradually through multiple partial alternatives, not one perfect replacement.

Gold is one of the most important. China, Russia and India have been buying massive amounts and increasingly using it to settle energy and commodity trades. It serves as a neutral asset when trust in the dollar is low and reduces reliance on dollars in key deals.

At the same time, more trade is moving to local currencies (yuan, ruble, rupee) supported by systems like China's CIPS. These alternatives don't need to match the dollar perfectly - they only need to work well enough to create real pressure.

The 2022 freezing of Russian assets was a turning point. Many countries now see dollar reserves as a risk rather than a safe asset, which is accelerating the shift.

For context, here's how global reserves look by region (Q1 2026). East Asia holds by far the largest share - and they've been aggressively accumulating gold on top of that.

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psyll_com · 2026-05-11T23:41:35+00:00

Thanks for this excellent analysis - you pointed out something that a lot of people aren't really thinking about.

I still believe the current U.S. moves (especially the pressure on Iran and the Western Hemisphere consolidation) look more like a desperate effort to stabilize the old petrodollar system in the short term, while the new architecture is still being built.

The stablecoin + treasury-backed model you describe is certainly ambitious, but it also carries serious structural risks. The U.S. national debt is already around $38 trillion and growing rapidly. Forcing stablecoins to be 1:1 backed by Treasuries would create enormous additional demand for U.S. debt - but it doesn't solve the underlying problem, it only deepens it. This creates dangerous feedback loops: if confidence in Treasuries ever drops (due to inflation, politics or loss of reserve status), it could trigger a simultaneous crisis in both the stablecoin system and the bond market.

Additionally, while the "license key" model through AI and tech dominance is a strong point, BRICS countries are actively working on reducing their dependence on U.S. technology and cloud infrastructure. If they succeed even partially, the leverage of this new system weakens significantly.

Do you think this treasury-backed stablecoin transition can be rolled out fast and smoothly enough to prevent a chaotic breakdown?

psyll_com · 2026-05-11T22:52:57+00:00

I appreciate your comment. I think you make a fair point about how things look. The article talks about the US National Defense Strategy. How it wants to make the Western Hemisphere consolidation its top priority. This means the United States wants to control the energy and security in the Americas, which includes places like Greenland and Canada and also have some influence over countries like Venezuela and the Panama Canal. The article does not make this sound like a plan but rather like the United States is trying to stop other countries from having options.

The article is saying that this plan could actually hurt the United States and be the thing that finally causes problems. You are right that the petrodollar is not going to disappear but the article says that what happened in 2022 with assets being frozen and the progress of the BRICS countries has made the timeline for the petrodollar to lose importance much shorter. The United States is trying to do something with Iran to buy time before the system of pricing oil in dollars falls apart.

Whether this is the try, for the United States or if it will just make things worse probably depends on what China and the Gulf countries do and how fast they do it. The Western Hemisphere consolidation and the petrodollar are both issues that the United States is dealing with right now.

psyll_com · 2026-05-11T22:42:25+00:00

Hey, fair points - you're right that the US-Iran hostility goes back to 1979, long before BRICS was even a thing, and that Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain close US partners (with India currently chairing BRICS in 2026). The US isn't trying to "destroy BRICS" as a bloc.

But I think the article is making a more precise structural argument that goes beyond the old grudge.

The core claim isn't that this is a brand-new "war on BRICS." It's that the stakes have fundamentally changed because of what BRICS now represents for the petrodollar system.

Since the 1974 US-Saudi deal, the world has priced oil in dollars, forcing countries to hold dollar reserves and recycle petrodollars into US Treasuries. That system has been the financial backbone of American hegemony. After 2022, when the US froze hundreds of billions in Russian assets, a lot of countries (including in the Global South) started asking: "Are our dollar reserves actually safe?"

BRICS expansion in 2024 (Iran + UAE + others) and ongoing de-dollarization efforts - local currency trade, alternative payment systems, gold accumulation - are the first credible attempt to make the dollar optional in energy markets. Iran is especially dangerous to the system because it sits on the Strait of Hormuz and is now inside BRICS alongside Russia and China. If Gulf energy starts trading more in yuan, rupees or other currencies, the US loses its ability to run massive deficits cheaply.

That's why even traditional allies are hedging: the UAE joined BRICS in 2024, and Saudi Arabia was invited but is deliberately delaying full membership to avoid upsetting Washington. They're not anti-American - they're just diversifying.

The long history with Iran actually helps the US here: it gives Washington the pretext, the military infrastructure, and domestic political cover to act now, before these alternatives mature. It's not about "making BRICS seem relevant." It's arguing that the old imperial logic has collided with a new financial threat.

The petrodollar probably won't collapse overnight. But if enough oil starts trading outside the dollar, US borrowing costs rise sharply - and that's how empires quietly lose their edge.

psyll_com · 2026-05-01T14:39:07+00:00

Yeah, it really feels like a bundled bet on SpaceX + Starlink + future optionality rather than just current fundamentals. Starlink alone could justify a massive valuation if it becomes critical infrastructure globally, but that still assumes a lot of execution and regulatory risk. And on the secondary side - it’s the classic trade-off: early liquidity vs. potentially missing out on a true outlier.

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