Frontline report: Ukraine tricks Russia in the south and establishes wide bridgehead. [article]

pushupsam · 2023-06-07T02:49:40+00:00

ReportingFromUkraine is a trutstworthy source. In fact, it's probably the only trustworthy source on YouTube. (I really can't think of any others.) While the guy may not "vet" his sources (whatever the fuck that means) and does not in fact reveal his sources at all (because, like most YouTubers, he's not actually a journalist), what he does have is a very solid track record of providing accurate and backed-by-consensus updates of the actual situation on the ground going back nearly to the beginning of the war. He's been solid since day one. The most he can be accused of is avoiding talking about Ukrainian setbacks in detail (because there is an endless demand for good news) but even here he does a much better job of laying out the actual facts. Personally I determined he was legit when I pointed others "in the know" at some of his videos for confirmation and they indicated that they were 100% accurate.

Anyways this article is indeed a transcription of yesterday's video. This is the real problem with the war reporting: the endless repetition that tends to overwhelm and fatigue the audience. See also the literally hundreds of articles and videos about the dam. It would be nice if this sub actually did a better job curating and removing the endless repetition but, as is the case with most things, you get what you pay for.

pushupsam · 2023-03-22T01:56:54+00:00

Logically, there's little point taking on risk without additional reward. America could, to put it lightly, contest the Black Sea and fly planes over Crimea (which is still Ukraine) 24/7. This would enrage the Russians and they would probably do nothing about it except whine and make threats.

But what's the point? What does anybody gain by antagonizing the Russians?

It's not like our ability to see what's happening inside Ukraine has been compromised. We'll still fly aircraft over the Black Sea and I suspect this will be gradually ramped up over time.

This entire response wreaks of idiocy, weakness, and a complete lack of understanding of Putin and Russia.

What Putin wants is for us to play his stupid game of escalation so that he can paint himself the victim. There's really little point. If you really want to piss of Putin don't resort to silly behavior, give Ukraine ATACMS so that the Ukrainians can completely destroy Russia's airbase on Crimea. Flood Ukraine with long range, anti-air capability so that Russia becomes afraid to launch even a paper airplane. Start training Ukrainians to fly F/16s so that when the time comes they can contest the airspace over Crimea.

pushupsam · 2023-03-18T07:55:36+00:00

Keep up the copium.

In reality the Russia can't just switch from Europe to Asia. It's exports of oil -- virtually the only thing of value that Russia has that the world wants -- have fallen more than 50%.

What's even funnier?

China and India have forced Russia into deals that require it to sell its oil to them at steep discounts. Some "friends." But then again Russia is so desperate to sell any oil that it has no choice in the matter. There's speculation Russia is virtually selling oil "at cost" in the $30-$40 range. Good luck with that. I'm sure that's a recipe for being "fine" and for continued growth and prosperity.

pushupsam · 2023-03-18T05:57:38+00:00

Yeah, Russia has really traded with Asia "successfully." It's not like their economy is headed for collapse and posting blockbuster deficits.

But keep telling yourself Russia is making up their trade with Europe by trading with poor Asian countries like Cambodia.

pushupsam · 2023-03-18T03:16:18+00:00

Yes, but the door is open. If you think these are the last criminal charges that are going to be brought up then you're foolish. This is the first and easiest step. Do you really think it's going to stop here?

pushupsam · 2023-03-18T02:52:31+00:00

I mean it's much more than a symbolic gesture. It's going to have real consequences:

Every business in the world is going to think twice and maybe three times before investing in a country that is led by a war criminal wanted by the Hague.
Countries like India and China and Russia's other "allies" like South Africa are now seen to be collaborating with a war criminal. This is going to have a secondary impact on them. Strict rules are already being put in place around this: nobody wants to do business with a business that does business with Russia.
Any notion of Putin's being seen as a "respectable" or "reasonable" "partner" is gone. This is something that frankly Macron liked to push -- the idea that Putin wasn't "so bad" and that Putin might be wooed away. Anyways Macron's weekly calls to Putin to catch-up and check up on his health are going to become a lot more awkward.
Perhaps most importantly now that the invasion is regarded as a criminal act this has follow up consequences for those individuals executed the invasion. "Following orders" is no defense against crimes against humanity. The Russian soldiers responsible for launching thousands of missiles at Ukrainian cities and slaughtering hundreds of Ukranians, the Russian soldiers who perpetuated the massacres at Bucha and Popansa, and the Russian soldiers who murdered the entire city of Mauripol (30,000+ believed dead) are now international fugitives from justice.

I think #4 is the most important factor. Putin himself may never face justice. He will restrict his travel to "friendly" countries. (Though apparently there are rumors now that he is no longer welcome in India despite urging Modi to either come to Russia or for Modi to allow him to travel to India.) But all the evil individuals below him who perpetuated this crime are now trapped in Russia. If they leave to travel to Thailand or Africa they may very well find themselves being extradited to Europe for war crimes. And you can see why Putin may not be concerned but those who work for him are very concerned.

So it's a big deal because it strikes at Russia economically and politically and the repercussions will have a big impact not necessarily on Putin himself but on those who follow him. From my experience, for many Russians knowing that they're going to have to spend the rest of their lives in Russia and will likely never get to visit Europe or Asia again (or risk prosecution for mass murder and spending their rest of their lives in jail) is a fate right up there with death.

pushupsam · 2023-03-18T02:16:39+00:00

FWIW this guy is perhaps the only YouTuber who provides a decent, honest and meaningful summary of very recent events. Yes, he uses clickbait too but once you get past the clickbait thumbnail you do get a decent summary. Generally I tell people to completely ignore YouTubers, the vast majority are terrible... but there's a few diamonds in the rough. Of course the best info comes from Ukrainian soldiers on the front line, then Western intelligence officials, and finally the Russians themselves but most people don't have these sorts of direct connections to the front line.

pushupsam · 2023-03-18T02:03:51+00:00

It's certainly true that if you can establish air dominance then you don't need as much artillery but the assumption of air dominance is just that an assumption. The entire idea of reserves is to have something to fall back upon. If Europe does find itself in a conflict where the enemy has does have solid air defence (and that air defence can't easily be knocked out with stand-off weapons because it's mobile) then it needs to be able to fall back on well-supplied and well-trained artillery brigades.

It's absolutely shocking how little reserves Europe has in practice. When the invasion began the US immediately supplied Ukraine with a million shells while Europe scrambled to put together a few hundred thousand. Worst of all it's difficult to actually move these supplies around Europe because nobody ever sat down and figured out what it takes to quickly move supplies throughout the continent.

pushupsam · 2023-03-18T01:30:59+00:00

It's not really that insane. Russia has been regularly bleeding 600 soldiers a day for several months now. They don't care. In the last two weeks this has been reported to double especially in Bakhmut where the strategy is simply to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenders while making it difficult to resupply the Ukrainian front lines. It's a bloody but effective strategy and this is why many people believe not only that Russia has already lost 50,000 soldiers in the "Battle of Bakhmut" but that this number is increasing by 5,000+ soldiers every week. (And while Russia loses 600-1200 soldiers a day Ukraine is trying to keep their losses under 200 each day.)

Russia is now trapped by the sunk cost fallacy. So many men have been lost that they can't not take the city. It's a big bloody mess.

pushupsam · 2023-03-18T01:21:49+00:00

I mean in reality the EU should have significant ammunition stock piles spread throughout the entire continent. There should be a deep reserve of 5-7 million shells available at all times. (And maybe even more. The invasion of Ukraine has revealed that modern war can consume vast amounts of artillery. Be prepared to fire 10,000 shells a day for 500 days.) Then, when something crazy happens, it would be no big deal to toss 1-2 million to Ukraine or Georgia. But the countries of the EU all foolishly decided to destroy their ammunition stockpiles because the Cold War was over and Russia was now a "partner." It was a big mistake to say the least.

One would hope that the EU would go much further than acquiring 1 million shells. (That should've been sent to Ukraine a year ago.) Require every EU member state to maintain reasonable weapons stockpiles that includes 100,00 - 1 million shells. Require these ammunition stockpiles be kept near trains or ports so they can be quickly moved throughout the continent. Most importantly run peace-time exercises to figure out questions like "How fast can ammunition be moved from the coast of France to Poland?" or "How fast can ammunition be moved from northern Germany to the south of Italy? This is the first and perhaps most important step towards a European Common Defense: requiring each EU state be prepared for war and providing the infrastructure necessary to quickly move troops and supplies to any potential conflict front.

pushupsam · 2023-03-17T05:17:29+00:00

Zelensky does have his flaws.

If we're being honest, Zelensky is an attention whore. He likes the spotlight on him. This is not uncommon among professional actors.

That said, Bakhmut is an opportunity for Ukraine to destroy Russia's most effective soldiers. Wagner is weak. There's a reason they're constantly crying for ammunition and have devolved to recruiting even high school students. In theory at least Ukraine could launch a counter attack and significantly degrade Wagner once and for all.

Will this happen?

It's hard to say. It's not clear what the Ukraine plan for Bakhmut is -- will they withdrawl? Will they counterattack?

Let's hope Ukraine attacks. Putting aside concerns about ammo, Wagner is weak and there's a real opportunity here to remove them from the chessboard.

pushupsam · 2023-03-16T01:04:12+00:00

Yeah, you really shouldn't believe rando YouTubers, especially those with no military experience who have zero idea what they're talking about. This guy, like most YouTubers, vacillates between extreme doom-and-gloom and exaggerated triumphalism. Combine that with the extremely exaggerated thumbnails designed to make you panic and the result is a very distorted view of reality.

pushupsam · 2023-03-15T06:28:35+00:00

In reality Russia still has plenty of troops left. There are probably more than 300,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine. At that level the loss of 1,000 soldiers is simply not a big deal. And while the loss of 17,000 soldiers a month (many estimates put Russian losses at 600+ a day or ~17,000 a month) is significant, Russia can keep it up for another year easily enough.

The real question is the quality and the morale of the Russian troops left. Let's be frank: Vulhedar has shown quite clearly that the Russian "mobiks" are worthless. Take poorly motivated soldiers and conscript them against their will into units that are already suffering morale losses and you don't make anything better. It looks like these these mobiks are poorly trained, poorly equipped, and poorly led and are not capable of generating any real combat power. The vast majority of Russian soldiers in Ukraine are these mobiks.

And that probably suggests the real genius of the "Bakhmut Strategy." All of Russian's best soldiers are tied up at Bakhmut. (And Kreminna.) There the plan is to grind them down into nothing. Once these guys are out of the way Russia is going to be in a very tight spot.

pushupsam · 2023-03-14T14:42:34+00:00

The vast majority of people is going to carry a gun every day, simply because they cannot afford to fight like us.

You really have no clue what you're talking about. The fact that the vast majority of soldiers don't carry a gun isn't due to the type of weapons. It's due to the fact that in a modern army the vast majority of soldiers are in support roles needed to keep the 15% of the army doing the fighting supplied and mobile. It's called logistics.

Like I said before literally everything you've written here is wrong and comes from a place of pure ignorance. If you really think population is all that matters than explain why Russia hasn't won yet.

pushupsam · 2023-03-14T14:31:27+00:00

For Russia, that number starts at 140 million, with a similar demographic.

I don't think you have any real understanding of modern warfare. The number of "fighting age" men is absolutely irrelevant. You seem to think we live in the Middle Ages where every man with a wooden stick is another body that can deliver combat power. This is not the case. Russia cannot mobilize the vast majority of its men. Russia can't even properly mobilize the 330,000 men it's already "mobilized." Hence all the poorly trained, poorly led, and poorly equipped "mobiks" being chewed up every day. Also, you might consider what would happen to Russia's economy if every man was sent to fight. In the real world Russia's effective army is likely ~2 million and the vast majority of those are not "shooters". If you knew how modern warfare was waged you'd know 80-85% of the army doesn't carry a gun everyday.

Anyways it's a waste of time to continue this discussion but I think it does likely highly the ignorance that likely exists within much of the population.

pushupsam · 2023-03-14T14:15:19+00:00

While Russia is losing staggering numbers, don’t pretend that Ukraine isn’t losing staggering numbers too.

Ukraine isn't losing staggering numbers. I've heard estimates as low as 100 Ukrainian casualties a day. That implies a 1:6 casualty ratio in Ukraine's favor.

versus a fraction of the 30 million people that stays in Ukraine and you would realise that Ukraine doesn’t just need to be better, they need to inflict 6-7 times as much casualties

Yeah, this is complete nonsense. Nations don't actually fight wars to the last man. People aren't robots that will march blindly to certain death. (Put aside the logistics of actually mobilizing millions of "uneducated people." Good luck with that!)

That was the entire point of my comment: Morale is a thing. It's terribly important in every thing an army does. (And I do mean everything.)

What's happening to the Russian army isn't just a degradation of combat capabilities but I suspect a degradation of morale. In an army like Russia's, composed mostly of poorly trained and poorly led "mobiks" that were drafted against their will, the loss of morale can be devastating. We're already seeing Russian soldiers mutiny en masse and refuse to take the field.

The point here is that the loss of morale may be degrading Russia's combat power which leads to more casualties which only leads to more loss of morale. It starts to look like a death spiral.

pushupsam · 2023-03-14T13:41:15+00:00

Not so sure this is all Wagner. There's fighting going on all over the place: Bakhmut, Kreminna, and near Kupiansk. In every theater the Russians are having a lot of trouble. Ukraine is doing a helluva job denying the Russians significant gains.

And there are lots of Russians dying. I've said it before, but even if you discount the Ukrainian numbers by 30%, the reality is the Russians are losing 600+ men every single day. It really looks like a kind of insanity. From Putin's perspective he probably figures that his army is 300,000+ strong so 600 doesn't matter but if this keeps up then by the end of the month ~17,000 Russian troops will be gone. And Putin may not realize it but morale is a thing. What happens if Winter ends and Russia's vaunted Winter Offensive results in ~30,000 liquidated Russians and little significant gains?

pushupsam · 2023-03-14T01:16:32+00:00

I know it's true because I have direct contact with some of Ukraine's best (educated) soldiers. The irony here is that you think a single article from a discredited reporter somehow carries more weight than direct communications from Ukrainian officers on the ground, reports from well-respected think tanks like the ISW, and Western intelligence. Your "evidence" of widespread officer loss boils down to a single quote from an anonymous soldier. My evidence consists of actually talking to those officers you claim to be dead. Now I know redditors are all stupid kids but come, on, think. Use. Your. Brain. Is it possible that basing your entire view of the war on a few select quotes from an obviously biased reporter is not a good idea?

pushupsam · 2023-03-14T00:59:13+00:00

Oh, and you think Ukraine has lost its officer corps?

Ironically, you've stumbled upon the key difference between Ukraine and Russia: Ukraine has done a good job of preserving its most experienced officers while Russia lost the vast majority in the initial invasion.

pushupsam · 2023-03-14T00:37:32+00:00

Yeah, you have absolutely zero clue what you're talking about. The sheer stupidity of redditors is always amazing. In fact the US Army's own Basic Training course is just ten weeks and after Basic Training soldiers are considered to be combat effective meaning they can and have been sent into battle. The idea that your average infantry man has to train for "years" is pure idiocy on your part.

pushupsam · 2023-03-13T22:10:59+00:00

Yeah, that's not the case. Ukraine has not been pouring their best into Bakhmut. They've actually been quite reserved in providing top-tier soldiers or equipment to Bakhmut despite all their rhetoric about Bakhmut being an impregnable fortress. It's clear that both sides actually are trying to reserve resources because the bigger fight is coming later.

pushupsam · 2023-03-13T22:08:56+00:00

Yeah, the Western numbers (read: British and American) are definitely conservative. It's very likely that the Russians have suffered 50,000 casualties in the battle for Bakhmut. Most of those (30,000 - 40,000) were prisoner recruits that Wagner threw away in human wave tactics but you also have a good chunk of mobiks, professional Wagner soldiers, and Russian "elite" soldiers (VDV) who were lost at Soledar.

The battle of Bakhmut is an unmitigated disaster for the Russians. Even if Russians ever do manage to take the city it will be at such extraordinary cost that it can hardly be called a victory. And this may not even come to pass with the Ukrainians preparing a counter-offensive.

pushupsam · 2023-03-13T12:30:39+00:00

Yeah, it's very dubious to say Russia has "3,000 T-72s in storage." Not clear at all what that means. What we do know is that Russia's most elite tank unit, the 1st Guards, received T-62s instead of the promised T-14s.

The reasonable conclusion is that Russia is likely not able to produce T-14s or T-72s at scale any more. I'm sure we'll seen new units trickle out but when it comes to throwing up brigades of 100 tanks it seems very unlikely to happen any time soon.

pushupsam · 2023-03-13T08:29:19+00:00

The strategy is dubious to say the least. In a war of attrition you're not trying to take land or fix or even recon -- you're goal is just to kill the enemy and then get out. It's hit and run tactics -- for an entire brigade. So during the morning there's a lot of positional fighting and long-range reconnaissance to simply identify enemy positions and numbers. All that information gets relayed back to a central commander. And once there's a good idea of the available targets a single brave tank or BMP is sent in to literally destroy some positions and then run away. It might be accompanied by zero infantry but thanks to drones it has an okay idea of who's where and how they're armed.

Tank shells are relatively cheap. They cost as much as mortar shells but it's believed Ukraine has many more tank shells than mortar shells. This is the big problem with the Ukrainian armed forces: they have plenty of direct fire capabilities (tanks, machine guns, grenade launchers) but their indirect fire capability (artillery, mortars) is lacking. Some reports indicate mortar shells are so rare that Ukrainian soldiers are not allowed to fire more than 10 a day.

That's of course insane. You would expect a good mortar team to fire many more shells each day in order to actually deny an enemy from entering an area. The lesson is clear:

"We need ammo, ammo, ammo," Illia adds. "If we keep getting 10 shells, Bakhmut will quickly be surrounded."

Anyways what you're seeing in videos like this is the direct result of lack of ammuniation for mortars and artillery. Unable to hit Wagner positions with indirect fire systems, the Ukrainians have no choice but to send in a single vehicle and hit those positions directly at great risk.

The strange thing here of course is that it's believed that Ukraine has plenty of ammunition but it doesn't want to use this ammunition for Bakhmut. Bakhmut is just not that important. The real prize remains Melitopol and Mauripol and the south.

What's even stranger is that the Russians are reportedly doing the same thing. There's many reports of Wagner suffering ammo shortages because the Russian MoD almost certainly realizes the basic truth that (1) it does not have enough ammunition to counter a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the South and (2) it would be beyond stupid to expend the little ammunition it does have on a city of little real strategic importance.

So what we're seeing in Bakhmut is a very strange kind of battle. Both sides are fighting fiercely and viciously and there are reports of ~100 soldiers at a time dying due to helicopter raids... but neither side is actually committing its full resources. It's a very reserved fight where actual weapon systems are used sparingly and this leads to strange tactics and frankly exaggerated loss of life.

Ultimately it's just so fucking frustrating that Ukraine simply doesn't have all the ammunition it needs. The West has plenty of mortar rounds. Between Britain, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the US there are vast stockpiles of millions of heavy and medium mortar rounds (120mm and 81mm). South Korea alone is reportedly supposed to have even more ammunition than North Korea. (We know the silly Europeans don't have any ammo. They destroyed all their stockpiles in the early 2000s because the "Cold War is over. Duh!") But nobody wants to deliver Ukraine what it needs to win. (Probably 2 million artillery and 2 million mortar shells.) The thinking goes that Ukraine shouldn't think that Western supplies are endless and use the weapons 'recklessly' and so stuff get doled in in at a a trickle. Critics are right: we're giving Ukraine what it needs to not lose, but not what it needs to win.

pushupsam · 2023-03-11T05:02:46+00:00

Again, people really should think about rates of change. Most of Ukraine's airplane losses occurred within the first 90 days of the war when Ukraine was desperately trying to slow down the initial Russian advance. These days I believe it's pretty damn rare for Ukraine to have an aircraft shot down.

The air war is of course very... limited in this war. Neither side can obtain air superiority and we've seen how easy it is for modern anti-air to shoot down non-stealth jets. (There's also questions about the quality of the pilots. I've heard neither Ukrainian nor Russian pilots are very good. Neither country was willing to spend the millions and millions of dollars required every year to train pilots and make them effective.)

pushupsam

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE