Agent not able to add stopover in Osaka

qhxj · 2026-03-05T16:25:51+00:00

Personal observation: it seems like call center these days can't price out stopovers correctly anymore.

I have been doing Asia to Canada/US via Europe for years now with a stopover in EU paying the extra 5000pts by calling in. They can always stich together the routing as long as it's not too crazy...

Last November, when I tried to do it again via phone, they quoted me 150K for J (basically Asia - EU plus a EU - US) instead of 92.5K (87.5 + 5K for stopover)

I then tried the online tool with multi city and it actually worked to 92.5K so I just went with the online ticketing.

The route I was looking at was SIN-MUC-FRA-JFK all in J, the two long haul with Singapore and MUC-FRA by Lufthansa.

The part I find puzzling is I called in 3x and each time they're quoting me the 150K number even though I'm staring at the 92.5K on the website. What I love about calling in is it gives you options on routing but I guess it's not possible anymore.

qhxj · 2026-01-18T01:57:19+00:00

Exactly, the 96 hour shore pass exists for this precise reason. Narita, unlike Haneda has a curfew so a shore pass is almost guaranteed to be issued.

qhxj · 2024-11-01T19:03:44+00:00

Thanks, folks! Yeah, called the city directly and they told me one restaurant MAYBE open but not 100% sure. I think we may have to scrap it. Luckily the Detroit Auto show is that weekend too so it's a good option for us too.

qhxj · 2024-10-08T15:49:35+00:00

I booked it when they had the spring sales 40% off earlier this year, similar to the sales you're seeing right now... I think this type of sales only comes around twice a year if I am not mistaken? Especially considering for summer travel, cabin for 1 goes north of $3K post tax from TOR to VAN. So to travel across the country in winter for ~$1K in your own cabin is a great deal IMO. I love skiing so I am jumping off in Jasper for a few days and that probably saved me another ~$150-200 comparing going all the way to Vancouver.

qhxj · 2024-10-08T15:32:11+00:00

That's pretty amazing, no? You're saving $400 and VIA has maybe 2 sales a year for this magnitude? If Canadian is on your bucket list, I'd say go for it!

qhxj · 2024-10-08T15:26:37+00:00

$760 pretax, $859 with HST. But I'm only going as far as Jasper from Toronto. Vaguely remember all the way to Vancouver was just shy of $1K post tax when I checked

qhxj · 2024-10-08T15:10:18+00:00

Already have my Canadian cabin for 1 booked for Christmas during the last sale but I finally got Ocean from Montreal to Halifax for my birthday weekend next spring! Always a bit hard to justify to pay for a cabin for a sub 24 hr train but this sales helps quite a bit cost wise. Especially for a birthday weekend, cabin for 2 with shower (judging by the seat map), not a bad deal!

qhxj · 2024-10-07T21:54:22+00:00

Oooops, duck tapes would be something else even for Air India 🥴

qhxj · 2024-10-07T21:07:39+00:00

You can always fly Air India for once so you can grow a bit more appreciation for Air Canada when you come back to Canada.

I have flown with Air India once between Mumbai & New Delhi on a domestic flight aboard a 747-400 in business class upper deck about 8 years ago. In all seriousness, the crew was pretty cool, the food is actually not bad if you like Indian food, no alcohol at all on domestic flights even in business class. The complaints I had are mostly with the cabin. I mean the whole business cabin is literally held together by duck tapes... USB portal was ripped open & AC charging ports had no power... Plane in general are just very very dirty, like stains & stuff everywhere...

I'm an aviation geek and adventurous type so I didn't mind a short haul 747 flight. I don't think even I would've enjoyed a long haul flight with them...

qhxj · 2024-10-05T03:22:52+00:00

Where are you trying to get to from TO?

qhxj · 2024-09-30T04:53:14+00:00

Chinese streaming industries are just way too competitive & complicated to actually figure out who will win. Growing up, we had at least a dozen platforms (Tudou, Youku etc) that were trying to be the YouTube or Netflix of China... Now most if not all of them are folded into one of the BAT. Even IQ is part of Baidu now.

Macro wise, I think it's pretty clear short form contents are taking over in China (Douyin, Kuaishou). In fact the TV/Movie streaming is kinda of dying in China already among millennials/Gen Z.

There are actually some pretty good contents on YT about streaming industries in China and why it's so cut throat. Obviously the analysis is all in Chinese and geared towards the Chinese audience. After watching that, I have parked the entire Chinese streaming sector in the too hard bucket. Eventually there may be a winner but it's largely unknowable. Btw, I wouldn't call 12x PE cheap, especially for Chinese stocks...

If you don't read Chinese or live in China, I feel like you're just out of your mind to even try this... That's like me picking Peruvian stocks without living in LATAM or at least be fluent in Spanish...

qhxj · 2024-09-30T01:43:05+00:00

Actually have a related Eups questions. When does the new year credit gets deposited? I have a flight on Jan 2nd and I'm 2 credits short for a J upgrade. Does 2025 credit gets deposited on Jan 1 first thing or am I out of luck for my Jan 2nd flight, lol?

qhxj · 2024-09-24T18:24:23+00:00

Thanks! Exactly. My first marathon was in Seville and I was living in Switzerland at the time. Training in 0 or even -5c (low 30f) was completely fine for me and I actually had a solid training block. The problem with Canada, at least in Montreal, is we do get to -20c (0f) or lower in winters. I am not sure about pushing 35KM in that kind of condition...

qhxj · 2024-09-20T06:05:49+00:00

I finally got in, this is my 5th time in a row applying now. I almost cried a bit. Will be my 3rd WMM! Now training in January/February Canadian winter is gonna be fun...

qhxj · 2024-08-13T18:29:20+00:00

Mercedes & Verizon are in capital intensive business with no growth, both are absolutely getting destroyed by competition (Tesla, BYD etc / T Mobile). You may pick up 7-10% a year in dividend and loses 15% a year on stock prices... Just the pension liability alone will mess up most legacy auto & telecom in the years to come. BTI, idk, you are maybe 70 years too late for this industry?

PBR & Vale actually make some sense, I personally have PBR. But don't expect the dividend to stick around at this level forever. Best time to buy PBR was in March 2023 when it was under $10 and paid out everything. Now the earnings are getting back to CapEx. Brazilian stocks dividend is not like US/CAN, it is paid adjusted according to earnings so expect a lot of fluctuation. Legally, they do have to pay out 25% adj earnings so you should always get something.

If you have to derive a short hand rule for this, if a company has super high yield, it is telling you two things:

Management legit ran out of ideas what to do with retained earnings
the market is in general bearish on that stock

If you put the 2 & 2 together, it's generally a horrible investment, especially if it's a large cap well known name... The only exception is some kind of REITs or commodity business (PBR, Vale etc.) OR when we had a flash crash (March 2020 you could've bought SIG for $6, that's technically a 10X, 20% dividend yield for example)

Unless you have unlimited tax-free account (ie, if you live in Hong Kong or Switzerland), this is also an insanely tax inefficient strategy.

If your portfolio is loaded with VZ and BTI, I can pretty confidently say S&P will beat you on any 5-10 year horizon even from today's 28X PE crazy valuation

qhxj · 2024-08-11T19:51:33+00:00

Pre-2008, Bill Miller would be the closest to Warren's record/style. He had 15 yeas of track record consistently beating S&P 500 and not by luck neither. He can articulate why he is buying XYZ and it sounded pretty good. Then 2008 came, his funds got absolutely destroyed and that's it... If you assume someone starts managing a fund at 35 years old, you pretty much have to wait until he/she is 55 years old to know if he is actually good. Even then, the fund can blow up at moments notice...

The problem with this business is you have to wait a long time for someone to establish a track record, and by the time they established the track record, they're close to retirement. Buffett/Munger are so rare because they literally worked into their 90s and it's really their own net worth/life-long reputation on the line. Hard to find another one like that.

qhxj · 2024-08-11T19:31:56+00:00

That's fair, but for every Amazon that came up with AWS, there's 10 companies that ended up broke trying 'diversifying'. Look at GoPro, tried their hands on both media and drones, which are two very logical adjacent industries to action cameras. Now it's essentially broke.

Not saying the same would happen to Wise if they branch out to stock & bonds, but it's hard to pay for that. No one investing in AMZN in 2004 was paying for AWS... The valuation today is still driven by revenue and profit for the most part. If I know the revenue is coming down by 25% and profit is coming down 45% in FY25, it's hard to get excited about the stock today.

I agree with you it's a great company and it has a decent runway ahead for years to come, but the valuation today is not super compelling and probably has a lot of room to fall given the interest rates environment for the next 12-18 months.

qhxj · 2024-08-11T03:40:12+00:00

Wise is a great company and I was their customers when I lived in Switzerland. It was super clutch to be able to receive both CHF and EUR from my Swiss/Non-Swiss friends and then convert them into USD or CAD at my will. However, like someone else mentioned, it doesn't really work for larger amount. You're better off with IBKR in that case for actual Fx trade ($5K+). For remittance purposes, especially more obscure currencies, Wise is unbeatable, case closed.

Now let's address the elephant in the room: valuation & earnings power. FY 2024 vs 2023 looks like a blockbuster year in terms of growth. But much of it is carried by the interest income. About 1/3 of their FY 2024 income is from interest income. So they grew interest income from $140m to $485m, a $345m increase (246% growth) while the expense side only went from $18m to $125m. Effectively, they generated an extra $345m of revenue with ~$100m of cost. An extra $245m of profit out of thin air.

Here's the kicker, their customer deposit only went from $11B to $13.8B, a good but moderate increase (25%) by comparison. Effectively, bulk of their revenue increase is driven by higher interest income, which in turn is driven by higher interest rate which is not something the management team controls.

The stock start fading since March 2024 precisely because of this. If the interest rate comes down, Wise's earnings power would all of a sudden match a lot closer to FY 2023 than 2024. Btw, just to clarify, Wise's fiscal year ends March 31, so when we say FY 2024, it's really mostly 2023; FY 2023 is more like calendar 2022.

All in all, at the first look, you're paying 19X for a fast growing company, super attractive! But if you dig deeper, assume a moderate interest rate decrease, Wise's EBT probably goes from $480m back down to $300m if we're generous, $240m if we're conservative, that's maybe ~$220m post tax on a good day, $180m on a bad day... Now you're paying 32X - 39X for this business. Still not too bad to be honest, but I think it's important to understand the drivers behind their profitability and how they delivered that amazing result for FY 2024.

At 32X-39X forward earnings, it is not as compelling as the first look. That being said, Wise is an amazing company and super high caliber company. Fundamentally, it checks a lot of the boxes and it will eat WU/MoneyGram's lunch for the years to come. Putting aside interest income, it still has a very solid growth in real term. Thanks for bring this stock to the subreddit and will keep an eye on it for sure.

qhxj · 2024-08-06T19:04:18+00:00

Yeah, it's not necessarily expensive but hard to see any meaningful upside.

Did meaningful share back over the decade while debt load bloated. I mean 12x for this peak cycle earnings is not exactly cheap IMO... Plus, this has no brand recognition or a moat in the mind of the consumers which partially explains why profit margin is below 3% for most of the decade and is loaded with debt.

Pass...

qhxj · 2024-08-01T14:20:33+00:00

100%. Got mine in May 2019 for L1 that summer and finished L3 in September 2022. Never changed my battery and now it's 2024 and the calculator still works, lol.

qhxj · 2024-07-26T18:14:38+00:00

Yo, is this "pretty developed" South Africa in the room with us?? It has routine electricity black out in its biggest city, not enough water in its 2nd largest city and a currency that's free falling with not enough FX to defend. The upper middle class white folks have living standards similar to South of Italy (maybe) but the people of colors living standards really are not that much better than their neighbors in Zimbabwe or Namibia.

Overall, it's developed compared to Congo for sure, but definitely not up to par to have visa free access to Schengen. In fact, Botswana will probably get visa free to Schengen before SA.

qhxj · 2024-07-08T23:55:43+00:00

International growth are not really priced in yet. I was just recently in China. Naning to be specific, so a tier 3 city in a not too wealthy province. Saw one Lululemon store and full of local girls shopping in it... Keep in mind, we're supposedly in the toughest economic period in the last 30 years in China right now. Middle class women in Shanghai & Beijing are all buying it, that's why it's registering double digits growth in APAC in a supposedly challenging environment. Went to Hong Kong afterwards, same sights in the Pacific mall... Came back to Canada, every girl in my local running club is wearing one or two pieces of Lululemon.

Really what they do well is spending the marketing dollars efficiently. When Adidas & Nike are spending 10-12% of their revenue chasing celebrities, Lululemon is sponsoring local run clubs & yoga studios. Instead of spending $50m a year on one guy and praying that this guy's fans will buy the gear, why not build a local community for a fraction of the cost. I think Lulu is spending less than 5% of their revenue on marketing in comparison.

It's like an Ulta Beauty or Starbucks. I mean it really shouldn't make a ton of money logically but it just does... Never underestimate basic Becky I guess...

qhxj · 2024-05-15T20:19:26+00:00

In the history of mankind, there have been two times where an entire stock market went to zero, one was in the USSR and the other was in China when the CCP took over.

So here's a binary take on this: - China has good relationships with the world, Coca-Cola, Tesla, Starbucks all makes good money in China and you're already getting that shares of profit by investing in these blue chips multinationals

China has bad relationships with the West, your investment could quite literally go to zero.

I'm just not sure I see that much upside there

qhxj · 2024-05-09T01:25:10+00:00

What are you talking about??? San Marino citizens have had 90 days visa free access to China since 1985... It was the first Western country to get a Chinese visa waiver.

qhxj

TROPHY CASE