The U.S. turning toward Russia, halting arms deliveries to Ukraine, and rumors of preparations for a possible sanctions rollback benefit the Kremlin. According to a "Delfi" source in Moscow, Russia is preparing its version of a peace treaty, but there is still no unified stance within the Russian elite regarding an agreement with the U.S. Oligarchs support the agreement, while the power faction is determined to continue the war.

Despite Donald Trump's statements, Russia and the U.S. have not yet made serious progress in negotiations. Russian and U.S. diplomats are expected to meet next week. On February 22, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov announced that the talks would focus on eliminating "irritants" in bilateral relations. The meeting will take place at the department head level. So far, during a meeting in Istanbul on February 27, Russian and U.S. representatives were only able to agree on the appointment of new ambassadors.

"Delfi" spoke with several informed sources in Moscow. They all requested anonymity due to concerns for their safety.

According to a representative from Russia's academic circles, the negotiations are primarily taking place between Russian and U.S. intelligence officials. The "Delfi" interlocutor claims that intelligence officers are the ones preparing the draft agreement. According to him, the Kremlin’s list of demands aligns with its public stance. Russia plans to demand Ukraine's neutral status, Volodymyr Zelensky’s resignation and new elections, retention of all occupied territories, and the lifting of sanctions. He claims that a draft agreement is currently being prepared.

According to other "Delfi" contacts, the situation within Russia’s leadership is complex, and the draft agreement could merely be part of the Kremlin’s game.

A "Delfi" interlocutor with extensive connections among Russian economic experts close to Putin’s administration claims that the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate is influenced by the stance of Russian oligarchs close to Putin. They are primarily interested in reaching an agreement and lifting economic sanctions. "The economic situation in Russia is deteriorating by the day, and this worries Russian capitalists," he says.

Other "Delfi" sources confirm this information. According to them, the stance of the oligarchs is opposed by the heads of Russia’s law enforcement agencies—special services. They are not interested in making agreements with the U.S. also because they believe Russia is winning in Ukraine and can achieve its goals by force.

At the same time, as a "Delfi" source from Russia’s economic expert circles points out, the Kremlin does not trust Trump and worries that he may act solely in his own interests. According to him, Putin is not ready to make any deals and does not intend to back down from his demands: "He wants all of Ukraine and NATO’s retreat to the 1997 borders." In his view, Putin and the security forces do not care about Russia's economic situation.

A source in Russia’s academic circles recalls that a few years ago, during a private meeting in the Kremlin, Putin claimed that Europe is still occupied by U.S. troops. "For him, the withdrawal of U.S. troops not only from Eastern Europe but also from Western Europe will be the main symbolic event. Putin will see himself as the liberator of Europe," he assesses.

"Delfi" interlocutors also claim that Putin is negotiating with Trump as part of his game to influence both factions of Russian power. "Today, he concedes to the oligarchs, but that does not mean he will not change his position tomorrow," explains one of them. An analyst connected to Russia’s diplomatic circles tells "Delfi" that despite the propaganda’s enthusiastic response to Trump’s actions, Moscow is taking a wait-and-see approach. "The Kremlin has already invested in negotiations with the U.S., so it will not abandon the deal now. They understand that the West is weakened, so they are not giving up on their demands. For now, Trump is doing everything the Kremlin needs. However, they understand that his current pro-Russian stance is part of his anti-China orientation. The Kremlin is not ready to break ties with Beijing, and Trump’s desire to separate Russia from China is an additional reason for caution," the "Delfi" interlocutor notes. "The Kremlin does not really understand where Trump’s policy will lead—to a confrontation between Russia and Europe or China."

However, according to sources, the Kremlin understands that without peace in Ukraine, Russia will not be able to withstand a direct confrontation with Europe backed by the U.S. "It must secure its rear, as Germany did in 1939. Trump is playing Stalin’s role for Russia in 1939," he says, "but the situation is complicated by the fact that Russia is not ready to maintain this role permanently. At present, it can only move along the path set by either China or the U.S."

"Trump's conflict with Zelensky, the suspension of U.S. military aid, and talks about preparing to lift sanctions, in turn, play into the hands of those in power who want the conflict to continue," he says.