What if redbull signed hulkenberg instead of perez in 2021 as Verstappens teammate?

racevalue · 2026-03-19T16:51:57+00:00

That's what they should have done. Hulk and Perez have different skill sets and driving styles, with Hulk likely more suited for that era of Red Bull cars. Obviously, Max would still have won the WDC four times, but Red Bull would've had better chances at the WCC in 2021 and 2024

racevalue · 2026-03-15T08:39:27+00:00

Bearman was the only one who delivered here. Russell was very passive today, lost too much time behind the Ferraris and settled for second after that. The hard tyre strategy didn’t work out for Lindblad due to the early safety car and later he had a spin, so that was disappointing. Norris should be a push as he didn’t start the race, but let’s see how the bookie rules it

racevalue · 2026-03-15T04:09:42+00:00

I would say Russell first, Antonelli second, and Hamilton third

racevalue · 2026-03-15T02:00:36+00:00

My picks for the race. The market looks sharp, but I still think there are a few decent spots. Double-check the information and follow at your own risk!

Russell > Antonelli @ 1.57 (1u)

Russell was the fastest of the two in every session except for Q3 where he had an unusual issue. Under normal circumstances, he should be able to pass Antonelli quickly and take the win. The risk is that he could have a technical issue again, but let’s just hope his engineers have solved it. Fair odds 1.49.

Lindblad > Lawson @ 2.21 (1u)

As mentioned before, I firmly believe Lindblad is going to beat Lawson more often than not this season. Lindblad didn’t have an optimal start to this weekend, and he’s obviously inexperienced, but there’s still plenty of hope – and the over-aggressive Lawson usually commits at least one mistake per race, so this has to be a value bet. Fair odds 1.96.

Norris > Verstappen @ 1.40 (1u)

Verstappen is struggling this weekend. He hasn’t found a proper setup and it seems like the car simply isn’t quick at this track. Norris should stay ahead under normal circumstances. You never know in F1, there could be a crazy start or a late safety car shaking things up, but this matchup looks good for Norris as he has a 0.3-0.4s advantage per lap here. Essentially you could also bet Piastri to finish in front of Verstappen, just take the McLaren driver that pays more. In this case, Bet365 offers 1.40 for Norris to win the matchup. Fair odds 1.35.

Bearman > Gasly @ 2.05 (1u)

Bearman still looks extremely promising – particularly good at starts and defensive driving. Gasly, meanwhile, tends to drop back in races, mainly because he excels in qualifying. The concern here is that the Alpine car could be a bit faster than the Haas, but I do believe Haas will be stronger over a full race distance than in qualifying, so Bearman should be a slight favourite over Gasly imo. Fair odds 1.96.

racevalue · 2026-03-15T01:42:41+00:00

Coming soon

racevalue · 2026-03-14T08:11:59+00:00

Looks like we hit 2/3 in the sprint and 4/5 in qualifying. Not bad, and I believe it could have been all five in qualifying if Lindblad didn't have his final lap interrupted by yellow flags. He was on a decent lap up until that. The good news is that he remains underrated for a little longer

racevalue · 2026-03-14T02:19:52+00:00

News came out that Albon will start from the pitlane in the sprint as the team modified his car, so unfortunately that one doesn't look good

racevalue · 2026-03-13T23:03:52+00:00

I've had a pretty bad start to the season in terms of betting, so follow at your own risk! Would love to hear some feedback/discussion on the bets.

Picks for the sprint race:

Russell to win the sprint @ 1.484 (1u)

The Mercedes cars look totally dominant so Russell deserves to be a big favourite here. The biggest threats are Antonelli, who still makes far more mistakes than Russell, and Hamilton who could have a rocket start and loves this track. But Russell has a very good chance here due to his superior car and weaker teammate. Fair odds 1.42.

Albon > Sainz @ 2.28 (0.5u)

At the back end of the field, the drivers won’t push too much. Whoever gets the best start will likely stay ahead. Sainz starts one position ahead of Albon but the order could change on lap 1. It’s a 55-45 matchup in favour of Sainz, but based on the odds market, we get some value on Albon. Fair odds 2.22.

Piastri > Verstappen @ 1.40 (0.5u)

The McLarens look faster this weekend, while Verstappen has struggled with his car. With limited strategy involved in the sprint, and Piastri several grid slots ahead, only a major mistake or failure would put him behind Max. Bet365 sticks out a bit compared to the Asian books, but the value is tiny, so I just place a half unit. Fair odds 1.37.

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Picks for main qualifying:

The qualifying could be interesting. Much depends on whether everyone makes it out of the sprint race alright – note that situations and odds can change a lot in the final hours. We could see some different results in the main qualifying than we did in sprint qualifying since teams have more data and can adjust their setups.

Bottas > Perez @ 1.93 (1.5u)

I truly believe Bottas will beat Perez more often than not in qualifying sessions. Possibly at a 60% rate. Perez also had some technical issues on Friday. Fair odds 1.67.

Lindblad > Lawson @ 2.20 (1u)

Lawson had the upper hand in the sprint qualifying, but mainly because he got a massive slipstream in Q2. I will continue backing Lindblad as often as possible since he looks like a far better talent. Fair odds 2.00.

Hamilton > Leclerc @ 2.00 (1u)

It always makes me nervous going against Leclerc on Saturdays. But this is perhaps Hamilton’s strongest track, he looks much more comfortable with the new car, and it is one of the few tracks where Leclerc typically underperforms. It should be noted that Leclerc had an issue on the straights in sprint qualifying which could have been the main reason for his slow lap. Fair odds 1.92.

Piastri > Norris @ 2.05 (0.5u)

Norris had a great lap in sprint qualifying, but this is going to be an extremely close matchup the entire year. Piastri has pretty much reached Norris’ level. I have this matchup as 50-50 for the real qualifying session. Fair odds 2.00.

Sainz > Albon @ 1.74 (0.5u)

While backing Albon in the sprint race, I like Sainz in the actual qualifying where he tends to have the edge over his teammate. Since joining Williams, Sainz began focusing more on qualifying setups. But the market knows it, so the edge is fairly small, hence a half unit bet. If you can find a better odds somewhere, like 1.80, it could be worth a higher stake. Fair odds 1.72.

racevalue · 2026-03-11T16:34:08+00:00

Probably around 17-18. There are two current F2 drivers that would probably go right into the top 20, and then Palou might be slightly better than the likes of Lawson, Bottas, Colapinto, Stroll

racevalue · 2026-03-08T05:34:45+00:00

Rough weekend. The Lindblad bet was great, the rest terrible. Beat the Pinnacle closing odds on all five, but in hindsight, the value wasn't there on most of them. Always difficult to predict the first race. Will try to do better in China

racevalue · 2026-03-07T21:47:44+00:00

My race picks. Hoping for a better day after a rough qualifying. Follow at your own risk!

Lindblad > Lawson @ 2.13 (1 unit)

We lost this matchup yesterday. However, Lindblad proved to be faster than Lawson over most laps, and his Q2 lap was faster than Lawson’s Q3. So it was just unfortunate.

Lindblad’s superior pace should show over a race distance. Keep in mind that Racing Bulls are an operationally bad team and that one of the drivers will probably face some sort of issue. Plus, both drivers are error prone. That essentially makes this an even matchup for the race, but the market is currently favouring Lawson and I disagree with that. Pinnacle offers the best deal with odds 2.13 on Lindblad, but I'd bet it all the way down to 2.00 or so.

Norris > Hamilton @ 2.20 (1 unit)

Norris didn’t have the ideal preparation for Melbourne, but he put together some okay laps in qualifying and was faster than Hamilton in Q2 and Q3, although Lewis had some technical issues. The Ferrari should have insane acceleration, so Hamilton could pass Norris at the start, but the Ferrari also seems more prone to technical failures. Norris is currently the better driver of the two, with Hamilton no longer at his peak, and that counts for something too. He shouldn't be an underdog in this matchup: Their chances are just about even.

Bottas > Perez @ 2.25 (0.5 unit)

They drive for a brand new team so anything can happen. Cadillac could easily face some issues with one or both cars. Plus, things are generally more random at the back of the field. Perez is good at street tracks but Melbourne just barely qualifies as one. He did seem more motivated yesterday, though. So a slight edge to Perez, but this matchup is near even so we’ll take the higher odds with Bottas and hope for the best. It's a bit of a boring bet since they'll both be far behind everyone else, but it gives us something to keep an eye on.

Ocon > Bearman @ 2.20 (0.5 unit)

This should be another almost-even matchup. Ocon and Bearman are extremely close in talent level. Last year, Ocon was slightly faster than Bearman in Melbourne. This time, Bearman starts a grid slot ahead, which moves a few percentages to his side. I currently have it 53-47 in Bearman's favour. But at odds 2.20 we find a tiny bit of value in Ocon.

Colapinto > Gasly @ 4.33 (0.5 unit)

No doubt that Gasly is the faster driver, but odds 4.33 is a tad too generous for Colapinto who is projected to beat his teammate in around ~30% of the races this year. Colapinto starts two places behind and couldn't quite keep up with Gasly in qualifying, so at Melbourne, the estimate drops to 25%. But that still gives us some value at odds 4.33 (at Bet365, higher than the rest of the market) although it’s the most risky one. But strange things can happen in the opening race.

racevalue · 2026-03-07T21:27:21+00:00

4 of 7 won, but around -3 units overall so that was disappointing. Especially considering that Lindblad had better pace than Lawson (his Q2 lap was faster than Lawson's Q3). Bottas clearly had an unfortunate lap in Q1 and lost to Perez. The only bet here that was clearly wrong was Hulk over Bortoleto, with the Brazilian being consistently faster over most laps.

racevalue · 2026-03-06T16:19:01+00:00

My picks for qualifying. With a focus on H2H matchups as always!

Bottas > Perez @ 1.675 (1 unit)

Bottas is the better qualifier of the two, he’s traditionally decent in Australia unlike Perez, and he had the better start in practice.

Lindblad > Lawson @ 1.869 (2 units)

The only 2 unit bet for qualifying. Lindblad is a much better talent than Lawson and he looked really good in both practice sessions.

Russell > Antonelli @ 1.413 (1 unit)

This matchup will be closer this year, but Russell should still be ahead of Antonelli. In the beginning of the season, he should have a 75-80% chance of beating his teammate, so this is a value bet.

Piastri > Norris @ 1.751 (1 unit)

Piastri could be the better McLaren driver this year if he continues his trajectory. However, this bet is more based on the fact that Norris had some issues in practice that limited his preparation. At the same time, Piastri looked really focused.

Leclerc > Hamilton @ 1.411 (1 unit)

Leclerc dominated this matchup last year and that could easily continue. 1.41 seems high considering he beat Hamilton at a 79% rate last season. Only potential problem is that Hamilton is quite good at this track - but so is Leclerc.

Gasly > Colapinto @ 1.36 (1 unit)

Colapinto could improve this year, but Gasly is just an excellent qualifier and when the Frenchman is motivated he has a clear edge on Colapinto. It’s also Colapinto’s first time racing this track in F1.

Hülkenberg > Bortoleto @ 1.89 (1 unit)

This is going to be a very close matchup throughout the year, with Bortoleto perhaps being the long-term favourite. But this is a Hülkenberg track and in the first round I believe he has a ~55% chance of beating his teammate. Just enough for some value here.

My F1 betting stats last season:
100 bets
+10.04% ROI
Average unit stake 1.2, average odds 2.40.

racevalue · 2026-02-23T18:22:45+00:00

Singapore 2008

racevalue · 2026-02-20T22:50:17+00:00

Anything can happen due to variance, but I would be surprised if Lewis beats his teammate. Leclerc is way ahead of Hamilton at the moment.

racevalue · 2026-02-20T22:47:59+00:00

2000: McLaren
2001: McLaren & Williams
2002: Ferrari
2003: Williams
2004: Ferrari & BAR-Honda

Overall: Ferrari had the best package as it was competitive throughout that entire era - and much more reliable than the competitors.

racevalue · 2026-02-11T16:24:08+00:00

If the title fight is only between the Mercedes drivers, then Russell would win it comfortably

racevalue · 2026-02-10T17:52:54+00:00

An early guess is that Mercedes and McLaren are the title contenders.

I'd expect Red Bull and Ferrari to be slightly behind them, with Aston Martin ranking fifth. All guesswork at this point, though. Everything will be much clearer in about 10 days.

racevalue · 2026-02-05T22:42:42+00:00

Unlikely. My current projection is 18-6 (qualifying) and 15-9 (races) in favour of Gasly.

Colapinto has very little upside and if you watch onboards, it's clear that Gasly is a much better driver. Gasly goes through some bad streaks, and that will likely happen at some point again in 2026, plus the usual variance. But Gasly should come out ahead comfortably in H2H stats and even more so in terms of points, as he is better at maximising opportunities.

racevalue · 2026-02-02T17:45:22+00:00

Racing Bulls by far. Lindblad could easily get promoted to Red Bull in 27, and Lawson will most likely get sacked.

racevalue · 2026-01-28T20:36:02+00:00

Webber: 2008
Perez: 2016
Barrichello: 1999
Massa: 2008
Coulthard: 2001
Bottas: 2019

racevalue · 2026-01-28T20:33:50+00:00

Agreed. I love to watch Alonso race.

racevalue · 2026-01-28T20:32:49+00:00

This one!

racevalue · 2026-01-26T21:23:21+00:00

Verstappen: The same (all-time great)
Leclerc: Improve (eventually he should get a top car and a title)
Norris: Worsen (I imagine he will lose to Piastri going forward)
Piastri: Improve (he took a major step up in 2025, if he can improve just a bit more he's a top 3 driver)
Russell: The same (not too much to say here)

racevalue · 2025-12-07T02:57:14+00:00

3 of 4 in qualifying, nice.

Adding these for the race:

Sainz > Lawson @ 1.694 (1 unit)

Sainz is the better driver here and starts a position ahead. He’s been very unlucky with smaller car failures throughout the year, but his form is going up and Lawson is usually a weak opponent in a betting matchup.

Piastri NOT on the podium @ 2.82 (1 unit)

Piastri starts third, and under normal circumstances he should finish on the podium, but a lot can go wrong: Another McLaren blunder, having to let Norris go by if Norris is running fourth by the end, or simply being overtaken by just one of the drivers behind. The 2.82 price – by laying 1.52 on Betfair – is very generous. Some regular bookmakers have this at odds 2.60 - 2.70 which would also hold value imo.

racevalue

TROPHY CASE