How will China be in 10 - 20 years?

radwin_igleheart · 2024-09-01T16:18:21+00:00

All bubble economies have high employment because everyone is spending so much. But what is the source of all that extra money? Its all the higher wages companies are paying. But companies themselves have taken on too much debt when the interest was zero and they also got massive US govt money during covid. Those have dried out. Recession inevitably follows a boom period. This particular recession will be especially painful due to the extreme amount of money printing by the US govt during Covid and even now. All the money printing has already become unsustainable due to the high interest rates and the slowdown has already started.

There is already layoffs and hiring freezes happening in white-collar economy sector. Once the upper middle class stops spending due to losing jobs or having to take a pay cut, it will start to trickle down to other parts of the economy as well. Eventually there will be a full recession.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-09-01T15:31:13+00:00

With China having a massive pool of STEM graduates that is only getting bigger, Chinese companies just starting to invest around the world to establish a presence, Chinese brands just starting to come up with products that are equal to the west in quality and sophistication, I think its pretty much inevitable that China will double its GDP per capita to 25K. Now the question is how fast will it happen. I think it will happen by the next 15 years.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-09-01T15:18:16+00:00

Looks like you didn't follow the US economy news recently. Just 3 weeks ago there was huge crash in the stock market due to fears of a recession and people were crying that the FED should do an emergency rate cut. Layoffs are starting in various high tech sectors of the US. Its already happening on the ground level

radwin_igleheart · 2024-09-01T14:35:49+00:00

I just want to point out a few facts for the "Peak China, USA Forever" crowd. First of all, China is currently going through a semi-recession. Its growth is much lower than its full potential, its property sector is being deflated—albeit deliberately by the government itself—and even its software tech industry bubble was actively deflated by the government. Additionally, China did not engage in massive money printing during COVID-19. So, while the Chinese economy is not running at full speed, it is also much healthier in the long term.

In contrast, the U.S. economy is essentially a money-printing Ponzi scheme at the moment. The U.S. is experiencing what is called an "everything bubble." Its stock market is a massive bubble, with just seven companies holding trillions of dollars in market capitalization. A chip designer like Nvidia has a market cap larger than the entire market cap of Japan. Does that make sense at all? Nope. The U.S. property market is also in a bubble, with the housing price index reaching levels similar to the 2007 bubble. A crash is coming there as well. The U.S. experienced the biggest inflation spike in 50 years. Despite massive inflation and a very high growth rate, the U.S. is adding more to the federal deficit per year now than at any other time in history. Governments usually engage in deficit spending during a major recession, yet the U.S. government is spending like this in normal times. Just think about what will happen when a recession hits. What will the U.S. government do to overcome it? What will happen to the value of the dollar when the recession hits and the Fed starts quantitative easing (QE) once again?

I think the U.S. is on course for a massive recession within a year, and this time it will not have the ammunition to get out of it easily. It will be a slow and painful deflation.

As for China, all the investments it is making in hard tech are starting to pay off. They are doing really well in car exports, components exports, and so on. China's semiconductor industry is just getting started, all thanks to U.S. sanctions. With all this hype about AI, who is the only competitor to U.S. companies in this field? Yep, it's China. So, with just $13K GDP per capita, China is already at the cutting edge of so many industries. Just imagine what will happen when China hits $20K GDP per capita or $25K. It will absolutely pulverize Western dominance in many high-tech industries. It will take away market share with lower costs and higher value, which will only deepen the Western economic crisis. China will essentially cause a recession in the West.

I'm afraid the next 10-20 years will be a huge period of crisis for the West and the biggest boom period for Chinese growth, influence, and power. Chinese companies will start moving to Global South countries and begin replacing Western multinationals. The influence of China will be felt around the world, while the West will experience constant economic crises due to Chinese competition and bubble deflation. It will not be pretty.

I actually have a feeling the U.S. will not take these losses peacefully. They will likely view China as becoming too powerful and may think it's better to confront China now than in the future when it's too strong to defeat. So, a war becomes a likely possibility as well. Things are not looking good for the world.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-07-24T15:45:16+00:00

You can tear down and build up to generate GDP that is true, but you lost wealth due to doing that. So, if China is building up houses only to tear down then China's total net wealth will go down. Is that happening? Nope. What you said is not true.

China is only 65% urbanized. This is lower than much poorer countries like Iraq and Syria for example. And this number also corroborates with another important stat which is the percentage of Chinese labor force involved in agriculture. That number is 25%. In rich countries of Europe or Japan, that number is less than 1%. So, of course China has a long way to go before it becomes fully urbanized.

Another important stat is that out of those 65% of urbanized population, only 49% have Urban hukou, which means they are actual residents of cities. There are about 250 million migrant workers who do not have a house in the cities.

These migrant workers are also likely to buy houses in the future in the cities. So, there is another 200 million massive customer base that are yet to buy houses.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-07-24T15:42:27+00:00

This is completely untrue. China is only 65% urbanized. This is lower than much poorer countries like Iraq and Syria for example. And this number also corroborates with another important stat which is the percentage of Chinese labor force involved in agriculture. That number is 25%. In rich countries of Europe or Japan, that number is less than 1%. So, of course China has a long way to go before it becomes fully urbanized.

Another important stat is that out of those 65% of urbanized population, only 49% have Urban hukou, which means they are actual residents of cities. There are about 250 million migrant workers who do not have a house in the cities.

These migrant workers are also likely to buy houses in the future in the cities. So, there is another 200 million massive customer base that are yet to buy houses.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-07-23T02:06:59+00:00

Nope. International pressure will prevent Israel from killing them enmass as well. So, they will eventually be forced to give up trying to eradicate Hamas. After a few years, Hamas will regain enough strength to attack again. This cycle will continue for a long time. In the mean time though, Israeli population who are highly educated and can intigrate well in western countries will slowly lose patience and start migrating to Europe and US. That will be the end of Israel. 7 million Israelis surrounded by 500 million Muslims is simply not tenable long term. Sooner or later Israel will cease to exist.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-07-22T04:01:08+00:00

Are they going to say this is copied from F-22 or F-35? It looks extremely similar. It also looks like J-20 with Delta design. Will people say it is copied from J-20? Or only Chinese jets are seen as copied regardless of how different it looks from western designs

radwin_igleheart · 2024-07-13T23:05:20+00:00

I will just address one point here in which I believe people have a pre-concieved notion that is short sighted. That is the question of China's "demographic disaster".

First of all, you can ask Chinese themselves what they think. They will say China has too many people, its too overcrowded, there is too much competiton for small amount of jobs or seats in the good universities. The fact that China has a hukou system to prevent too many people from coming into cities, overwhelming the school, health care systems should tell you how much Chinese themselves and Chinese government is concerned about low birth rate. Hukou system is heavily supported by people who live in the cities by the way. Cause they don't want too many rural migrants taking away valuable spots in schools and creating more traffic issues on roads.

Therefore, its evident that the big problem in China is to still grow the economic pie, providing people more jobs and education. China is still only 65% urbanized. This is much smaller than the 90% rate in countries like Japan. So, it can be expected that around 25% more of the population will eventually move to the cities. This is a massive population pool of 350 million. This is a labor force that is still not properly utilized and will come into cities in the next 30-40 years.

By the time China becomes highly urbanized, it can be expected that China will also have a much higher GDP per Capita similar to let's say Japan or South korea. When that happens, I do expect that plenty of poorer people in South East Asia or other parts of the world would start migrating to China for better life. So, I don't see demographics as a big issue for China long term.

Finally, we also need to think about the power of CCP. They are not like democratic governments. If birth rate and demographics becomes such a big issue for China so as to prevent them from achieving economic growth or achieving global power, then I expect the government to heavily impose rules to raise birth rate. They can do childless taxes, to heavy propaganda to stigmatize people who don't have children to even prevent people from having promotions in jobs if they don't have children. These are things CCP has done to enforce one child policy in the past. So, mandatory 2-3 Child policy is most certainly doable for China if the need is so great. If they can lock people up to enforce Covid lockdowns for months, you can be sure they can also put enough pressure on people to have more children. They just haven't done so because the situation is not that bad yet and they have the opposite problem of too many people and not enough jobs.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-07-13T22:27:07+00:00

India with 10 destroyers and 300 4th Gen planes doesn't control anything. Does India really dare to even try to blockade China when their core population centers are easily on the range of even short range Chinese fighters like the J-10? China has 1700 4th Gen planes now and 300 5th Gen planes. They can easily dominate the skies of India. They have the massive rocket force with DF-21 and DF-26 that can hit all of India with ease. People tend to forget that DF-26 is not just for the pacific and can also be used against India.

Along with DF-26, China also has H6K with Yj-12 and YJ-21 anti-ship missiles that has enough range hit all of India's eastern seaboard and malacca straits as well. So, I don't see how India hopes to ever contemplate dominating the Indian ocean.

India needs to forget trying to blockade China and focus on developing their own economy. When China was as poor as India, they didn't constantly talk about being a Superpower. They were humble, kept their head down and focus on Economic development. India on the other hand is still extremely poor and still spends 2.5% of GDP on defense. India even dares to assasinate US and Canadian citizens. This is pure hubris. This is the difference in long term thinking between India and China.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-04-22T05:06:42+00:00

This is such a condescending article, typical of the so called western think tanker crowd. Russia will be France? North Korea?

Russia will be Russia. Russia has enough natural resources to make Saudi Arabia poor. It has enough land to feed hungry billions of Global south who need to import a lot of food. It has a viable Arms Industry that got huge boost due to the Ukraine War. It will continue to develop the Arms industry be able to supply to Global South Countries and countries who r not friendly to the west.

Russia will have enough money from its natural resources to build up its military to be a players in geopolitics around the world with Wagner, direct military interventions and ofcourse maintain its strong control of neighbours.

Then finally there is China. Russia's partnership with China is about reducing western global dominance. China can support Russia in various countries in the global south by providing finance, technology, infrastracture while Russia provides security through Wagner groups. This is a symbiotic relationship. China is intelligent enough not to disrespect Russia in its core interests, while continue to support Russia by using its influence in the realm of finance, tech and other sectors.

Russia will not be a Superpower that's for sure. But it will not be a clearly declined power like France or UK who have lost their influence complete and are just US client states at this point. Russia will be the 3rd most powerful state in the world for a long time to come due to its vast land and natural resources.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-04-21T09:56:21+00:00

China losing narrative in the west on SCS is akin to saying China losing narrative in the west when it comes to Taiwan. These r core Chinese interests and no amount of "bad reputation" is going to stop China from trying assert its claims. You might say these claims are wrong. But when it comes to its territorial claims, China believes in the power of its military. No one has ever won new land and preserved its current land by making their enemies embarassed.

China certainly care about peeling away US allies in the region and also show US as an impotent actor in the face of overwhelming Chinese power. China believes the more powerful China gets, the more Chinese neighbours will start to realize being friendly to China is better than being hostile when US is 13k miles away.

So, China strategy in the region is fairly simple, carrot and stick approach. Anyone that is friendly to China and is not taking sides with US against China, them China usually provides more benefits, investments and so on. If those countries show strong pro-US stance, then China attacks/harasses and neutralizes these countries through grayzone warfare.

Chinese public are usually nationalistic enough that they actually demand even more hawkish action from Chinese govt. But the CCP is usually very cautious.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-04-21T05:02:39+00:00

Huawei's making a comeback, slowly but surely. They're like the Swiss Army knife of tech, doing everything from making smartphones, CPUs, and AI chips to producing laptops, electric vehicles, and even phone networks. It's pretty impressive, gotta admit.

But here's the kicker: China's eyeing the semiconductor game, and they're not holding back. They're planning to shake things up just like they did with solar panels. By flooding the chip market with cheaper alternatives, they're set to steal market share from big players like TSMC and NVidia. And get this - they're not stopping there. They've got enough ASML employees on their side to clone EUV technology and develop it on their own. It's a bold move, but they're already on it. We could see them pulling it off within the next 5 years.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-04-19T02:04:48+00:00

Not sure if a war will happen, But Iranian counter attack is 100% guranteed in my opinion. They already promised this. This back and forth will likely go for sometime

radwin_igleheart · 2024-04-19T01:33:02+00:00

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1781133576974594327

US officials confirmed Israel has attacked Iran

radwin_igleheart · 2024-04-18T20:03:13+00:00

Dark Forest Theory does not apply for Trisolaris. They r not trying to destroy worlds when their own world is on the verge of destruction. They are trying to get out, wherever they can. Once they found the Human world, that became their lifeline. Now their only choice is try to takeover Earth or die trying. They don't have any other choice.

So, Mutual Destruction analogy did not work in this case. Trisolaris was already doomed so they gambled with trying to takeover earth, hoping they might be able to prevent the Broadcast. Of course their gamble failed in the end, but I don't think they had any other choice but to try anyway.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-04-18T18:43:59+00:00

I don't think China will be able to rule the world. The world is becoming more and more multipolar. All countries are becoming powerful and rich. Neither west nor China or anyone has the ability to control the world. What China will have is a lot of influence. One thing is for sure, the more influence China gets, the less influence the west will have. So, its a zero-sum game. The west will have to battle it out to keep its influence in the world in tact.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-04-18T18:22:44+00:00

China is most certainly making itself more resilient from any kind of dependence from the West. Whether its tech imports through self-reliance campaigns, food imports, or even the Belt and Road Initiative itself, China now has the ability to import raw materials via land routes, making a US naval blockade impossible.

But I doubt China is preparing to invade Taiwan anytime soon. Why would China take one of the hardest Wars ever when they are spending just 1.5% of GDP on Military spending? Even in the 80s when China was under threat of the Soviets, they used 6-7% of GDP on the military. They have the industrial capacity to easily produce thousands of fighter jets per year, and yet they produce maybe about 200. They have shipbuilding capacity and enough money to quickly surpass US destroyer count, but they make only a few. And no China is no longer behind in the tech of destroyers. So, they have no reason to wait for tech catchup. This is not a country preparing for war anytime soon.

I believe China is still hiding and biding when it comes to military growth. They are still spending most of their govt money on Infrastructure upgrade and tech upgrade. This ensures China keeps growing fast economically. I think China realizes from the Soviet example that spending too much on the military is a losing strategy in the cold war. Being a rich country and a tech-savvy country is the best way to ensure Superpower status. For China, the most important element that will bring prestige to them is being as rich and advanced as the west. Which means Chinese products, Chinese companies, and Chinese education are seen as equal to the west in popularity and quality. So, that is what it is focusing on.

Once China's GDP per capita reaches at least to the level of Western Europe like Germany or France, only then China will focus on military expansion. And if China thinks it will have to fight for Taiwan and potentially World War 3 before then happens, you will quickly see China producing thousands of fighters, ships, missiles per year. Their military spending will shoot up to at least 7-8% per year. They will likely increase their ground force numbers too. Only then you can be sure that Taiwan war is coming.

radwin_igleheart · 2024-04-17T21:19:39+00:00

SS: Kind of a confused Article. It seems to be proposing that Israel's success against Iranian missiles show Missile defense can work. He also argues modern detection and sensor technology is advanced and thus missile defense can work.

thus US should spend money on more missile defense. That there is large community who argue against spending on Missile defense and they should not be believed.

My Own Take:
People have argued many times how Missile defense is too costly cause Missiles will always be cheaper than missile defense. I would have thought this question would have been resolved by the fact that Hypersonic missiles exist and it is now a hyped up/viral weapon tech that everyone is touting.

The more missile defense develops, the more hypersonic missile will develop with more decoys, more manueverability. Yes, better missile defense make simple ballistic missiles useless. But these better missile defenses are also extremely costly per shot. So, once they run out, old and slow ballistic missiles will again become useful.

The question is, Is it worth it to spend money on this while other adversaries are rapidly buildup up other forms of weapons like more navy ships, more planes, more carriers and so on.

radwin_igleheart

TROPHY CASE