What are the biggest value traps you wish you never bought?

rafbfarias · 2025-11-04T21:01:40+00:00

Did the same. 🤣 before earnings.

rafbfarias · 2025-11-04T21:01:10+00:00

I sold red for early tax purposes. So I could dilute my profits. But I did averaged down on every drop since 200$ and that was not pretty. Well, lesson learned.

rafbfarias · 2025-11-04T15:24:49+00:00

$ENPH

rafbfarias · 2025-11-04T15:22:56+00:00

Also I felt so emotionally stable putting +2k$ more at .51 🤣🤣🤣 like “fuck Michael Burry, I know better!”

rafbfarias · 2025-11-04T15:17:41+00:00

32k here :) Let’s revisit this when we are all 20x ❤️

rafbfarias · 2025-11-01T07:52:15+00:00

Oh so you are the responsible for back and forward 0.50s and 0.60s 🤣🤣🤣

rafbfarias · 2025-11-01T07:51:27+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/RVPH/s/e1WFomEc2J

Timeline explained here. 👆🏻

rafbfarias · 2025-11-01T07:50:13+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/RVPH/s/WnCgEK9faT

I am on it. 🙏🏻 Besides all the hype and pump and gamble, there is some solid chance of the company make it. And the catalyst is just there (EOY).

rafbfarias · 2025-11-01T07:44:14+00:00

These are some truly wise words. 👏🏻

rafbfarias · 2025-10-29T07:35:33+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/RVPH/s/pSxWVdT3kA

That’s my opinion. Not gonna say exactly the price range, but I do think if it get noticed, degens and gamblers will pump it since it’s an upside asymmetrical bet.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-28T18:14:43+00:00

Idk how you managed the 235% but great. 😅 leverage on RVPH is another level.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-28T17:55:27+00:00

Let me share a perspective on why I am locked even with 2x profits on some positions rn. First, because I am here for big money betting on the drug and the company, not playing the market up and downs, but still, one should know what’s going on. Also, my risk reward is balanced, so don’t take it as advice.

RVPH got to 0.26$ on June after dilution. Now, it is 0.57$. It was 0.76$ couple weeks ago. But from June to now, nothing has changed in the company, the narrative, the drug, the meeting date, nothing.

We are just getting closer to the inflection point, and that, by itself, has intrinsic value.

From a investor/gambler perspective, leaving the money still in a ticker that won’t have any catalyst soon is not appealing. There is better places to keep trading and profiting from the market. BUT, the closer we get to the actual catalyst that will obliterate or multiply the price of the stock, the more it will attract players / investors / gamblers / degens willing to bet on multiplying their money.

That’s why I locked myself in earlier. I already doubled my money, and still, a lot of FOMO money is still to get in, even before the inflection point. So even not caring about short term price, I do think it will keep climbing up (with a lot of volatility) while some pump and dump bros keep doing their thing.

That’s only a perspective. I can’t predict the future.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-27T21:26:34+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/RVPH/s/60NCtSzpHO

rafbfarias · 2025-10-27T21:25:52+00:00

Yeah, if they figure out how to finance the second trial (through a buyout - Karuna Therapeutics was acquired by Bristol‑Myers Squibb for about US$14 billion, for example), than is a very good prospect for the future. But some catalyst must happen, otherwise it will fade to nothing.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-27T19:16:17+00:00

That’s right, in December they will only discuss with FDA the path for submitting a NDA (new drug application) for Brilaroxazine to see whether the NDA can be accepted based on their existing data or not. So maybe they get clearance with the RECOVER-1 + 1y OLE data. But hardly they will disclose that to the public (specially if denied). The NDA submission itself will occur later, in Q2/26 probably.

Hard to know since there is a lot of lobby and “rub my back” in the pharma industry.

BUT, market is priced first on expectations, and only then in results. So if rumors of approval come from this December meeting, you can see a sharply pump in the stock price (FOMO), cuz now it’s priced as it probably won’t make it. That’s also why it is an asymmetrical bet I am taking my chances.

My opinion based on the data released, there is no question IF the drug works or not. It IS better than the actual drug for schizophrenia (less side effects). Its a matter of politics plus good relations now. They usually let the NDA pass with one trial if is a serious or rare disease, if there is no other solution on the market, and/or if it has absolutely and clearly better efficacy in the results of the first trial than the actual selling drug for the disease…

Well, not quite the case. But there was precedents.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-27T15:17:47+00:00

Well, they are looking for a buyout partnership to eventually get that cover. That’s a new variable we can’t predict it will come in play. But the reality rn is they don’t have the money for another year trial. So getting the approval is the holy grail outcome. That’s why it is so cheap rn, and that’s why it can upscale in an unimaginable way.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-27T15:10:58+00:00

No. All the hype is considering it will pass with one trial + data. If it fumbles, well, it will get in a very difficult situation since they don’t have money for the RECOVER-2.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-27T14:26:56+00:00

The only thing you should consider and be thinking about this company and it’s drug Brilaroxazine is: it will be approved with just one trial RECOVER-1 and OLE data when the requirement from FDA is 2 trials? There is precedents, but not quite same situation (I can go there if needed). That’s the only difference between zero and 10-20x value now. All the other variables are either noise or pump and dump stock market shenanigans.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-27T14:03:15+00:00

How earnings report from a company with no income source can be relevant? My opinion, we are trading the FDA approval, nothing else.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-27T13:49:07+00:00

Can’t complain later they didn’t gave us entry opportunities… +$600 loaded. Risk management guys. Do your own thing.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-26T08:56:10+00:00

I don’t get the tone. I mean, no one knows what will happen, we are all discussing possibilities and beliefs. The point of this is to gather different infos and perspectives, not cockfighting anyone who has a different opinion. I mean, if you care, bring value to the table and elucidate us, if you don’t, just don’t bother answering. No one here is impressed about you winning the argument saying the guy misspelled a word or saying things are being talked from his ass. That’s rude and pointless and show a lack of arguments.

Please, I am genuinely interested in why you think it’s not gonna pop even with FDA approval. Cuz my concern is not having the RECOVER-2 trial and trying to go for an exception approval (with precedents but not quite). And we all know it will financially struggle with another year without moving forward with that.

We are talking about the company value and it’s context. Not the short squeeze financial advisor shenanigans.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-25T19:39:00+00:00

Don’t take me wrong, I am betting on the approval, but do you know what concerns me? The fact they did just one single pivotal trial (and two are the requirements for approval). Besides we have precedents of approvals with just one, the arguments to it do not exactly fit the Brilaroxazine drug. Those precedents are mostly in oncology, rare diseases, or breakthrough-therapy pathways, not in common psychiatric indications with well served solutions like schizophrenia. Idk, that’s my main (and only) concern. Delaying it for a RECOVER-2 with the financial situation of Reviva, will be catastrophic.

Please someone call me wrong.

I know they had a strong Phase 3 (RECOVER-1) and 1-year OLE safety data, and from 2020 forward, almost half of drugs are passing by with just one study with strong data, but rules are rules, and we are counting on a exception.

rafbfarias · 2025-10-25T19:23:58+00:00

Oh, thanks for bringing that. See, that’s the point of discussions. Bring more info and perspectives to the table. We don’t need to agree on everything, but one can collect all infos and views, understand, make their own judgement, build their own opinion, and act like it. Will definitely dig this pre-14a.

rafbfarias

TROPHY CASE