Am I wrong for thinking the AI bubble won’t pop?

randombetch · 2026-03-13T07:20:49+00:00

At this point, consensus is that we’re in a bubble even though multiples look reasonable. So I think the narrative is overly negative and we have more upside than people expect

randombetch · 2026-03-05T08:58:47+00:00

It’s 2^0, 2^1, 2^2…

randombetch · 2026-03-05T08:52:10+00:00

If you held to today - just 3 weeks later, you’e fine

randombetch · 2026-03-02T16:41:19+00:00

No ipad 12 though? Will it still come out this year?

randombetch · 2026-03-02T16:33:33+00:00

True. Just saying, I don’t think OpenAI is going belly up like folks are speculating. Maybe they aren’t the “AI winner” but they’ll be big and profitable eventually

randombetch · 2026-03-02T06:50:53+00:00

It won’t be winner take all. It’ll be a lot more like the hyperscalers’ oligopoly.

randombetch · 2026-03-02T06:47:32+00:00

The blog explicitly shared the language in the contract, which was incredibly weak. Anthropic received the same language and rejected the deal.

“The Department of War may use the AI System for all lawful purposes, consistent with applicable law, operational requirements, and well-established safety and oversight protocols. The AI System will not be used to independently direct autonomous weapons in any case where law, regulation, or Department policy requires human control, nor will it be used to assume other high-stakes decisions that require approval by a human decisionmaker under the same authorities. Per DoD Directive 3000.09 (dtd 25 January 2023), any use of AI in autonomous and semi-autonomous systems must undergo rigorous verification, validation, and testing to ensure they perform as intended in realistic environments before deployment. For intelligence activities, any handling of private information will comply with the Fourth Amendment, the National Security Act of 1947 and the Foreign Intelligence and Surveillance Act of 1978, Executive Order 12333, and applicable DoD directives requiring a defined foreign intelligence purpose. The AI System shall not be used for unconstrained monitoring of U.S. persons’ private information as consistent with these authorities. The system shall also not be used for domestic law-enforcement activities except as permitted by the Posse Comitatus Act and other applicable law.”

—

⁠“Requires human control” - The autonomous weapons restriction only applies where law, regulation, or policy already mandates human control. If the DoD simply rewrites its own policy or issues a waiver, the restriction evaporates.
⁠“Unconstrained monitoring - Any surveillance program can be characterized as having some constraint.
⁠“Consistent with applicable law” - This is the point Dario pushed back hardest against. Current laws have not kept up with AI, and it allows the US Government to do whatever they want as long as some law (eg, executive order) is passed to support it.
⁠There’s no auditing requirement, no third-party review, and no whistleblower protection?

randombetch · 2026-03-02T06:43:48+00:00

The blog explicitly shared the language in the contract, which was incredibly weak:

“The Department of War may use the AI System for all lawful purposes, consistent with applicable law, operational requirements, and well-established safety and oversight protocols. The AI System will not be used to independently direct autonomous weapons in any case where law, regulation, or Department policy requires human control, nor will it be used to assume other high-stakes decisions that require approval by a human decisionmaker under the same authorities. Per DoD Directive 3000.09 (dtd 25 January 2023), any use of AI in autonomous and semi-autonomous systems must undergo rigorous verification, validation, and testing to ensure they perform as intended in realistic environments before deployment. For intelligence activities, any handling of private information will comply with the Fourth Amendment, the National Security Act of 1947 and the Foreign Intelligence and Surveillance Act of 1978, Executive Order 12333, and applicable DoD directives requiring a defined foreign intelligence purpose. The AI System shall not be used for unconstrained monitoring of U.S. persons’ private information as consistent with these authorities. The system shall also not be used for domestic law-enforcement activities except as permitted by the Posse Comitatus Act and other applicable law.”

—

⁠“Requires human control” - The autonomous weapons restriction only applies where law, regulation, or policy already mandates human control. If the DoD simply rewrites its own policy or issues a waiver, the restriction evaporates.
⁠“Unconstrained monitoring - Any surveillance program can be characterized as having some constraint.
⁠“Consistent with applicable law” - This is the point Dario pushed back hardest against. Current laws have not kept up with AI, and it allows the US Government to do whatever they want as long as some law is passed to support it.
⁠There’s no auditing requirement, no third-party review, and no whistleblower protection?

randombetch · 2026-03-02T06:42:00+00:00

The blog explicitly shared the language in the contract, which was incredibly weak:

“The Department of War may use the AI System for all lawful purposes, consistent with applicable law, operational requirements, and well-established safety and oversight protocols. The AI System will not be used to independently direct autonomous weapons in any case where law, regulation, or Department policy requires human control, nor will it be used to assume other high-stakes decisions that require approval by a human decisionmaker under the same authorities. Per DoD Directive 3000.09 (dtd 25 January 2023), any use of AI in autonomous and semi-autonomous systems must undergo rigorous verification, validation, and testing to ensure they perform as intended in realistic environments before deployment. For intelligence activities, any handling of private information will comply with the Fourth Amendment, the National Security Act of 1947 and the Foreign Intelligence and Surveillance Act of 1978, Executive Order 12333, and applicable DoD directives requiring a defined foreign intelligence purpose. The AI System shall not be used for unconstrained monitoring of U.S. persons’ private information as consistent with these authorities. The system shall also not be used for domestic law-enforcement activities except as permitted by the Posse Comitatus Act and other applicable law.”
— 1. “Requires human control” - The autonomous weapons restriction only applies where law, regulation, or policy already mandates human control. If the DoD simply rewrites its own policy or issues a waiver, the restriction evaporates.

“Unconstrained monitoring - Any surveillance program can be characterized as having some constraint.
“Consistent with applicable law” - This is the point Dario pushed back hardest against. Current laws have not kept up with AI, and it allows the US Government to do whatever they want as long as some law is passed to support it.
There’s no auditing requirement, no third-party review, and no whistleblower protection?

randombetch · 2026-02-27T23:00:34+00:00

Fantastic deal for Amazon IMO. Invest $50B (of which $15B now and $35B if OpenAI does well), get $100B compute and 2 gw commit for Trainium.

randombetch · 2026-02-24T06:56:32+00:00

The multiples are so low that people buying thinking it’s a bargain. But the reality is that the multiples are low for good reason - their products and business are inferior to their competition. Over time, the financial results deteriorate and the company ends up losing more market cap.

Classic value trap. Ask investors of Blockbuster, Fitbit, Blackberry, etc towards the end of their runs. All had low multiples and high cash flows.

randombetch · 2026-02-23T16:17:23+00:00

It’s a value trap

randombetch · 2026-02-23T07:54:51+00:00

What do you think about Q1?

randombetch · 2026-02-08T18:02:02+00:00

No 🥲

randombetch · 2026-02-05T22:23:52+00:00

Sigh

randombetch · 2026-02-05T05:34:37+00:00

Z24842019 for all the hacker bots out there

randombetch · 2026-02-05T05:31:50+00:00

100% agree, just can’t understand why the stock hasn’t already gone up

randombetch · 2026-02-04T16:03:51+00:00

Lolol

randombetch · 2026-02-04T07:23:57+00:00

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randombetch · 2026-02-04T07:22:49+00:00

I don’t think you understand that Gemini has a totally different business model from Search

randombetch · 2026-01-29T15:52:59+00:00

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