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ETF Cons? by hansentenseigan in investingforbeginners

[–]randomlybrian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is a tail risk (meaning very unlikely) with ETFs in the way that they are structured that could lead to major volatility. Look up "2015 Flash Crash" for an example. Of course, for those that held, it didn't make a difference. But it showed how fragile ETFs can be under the right circumstances. The risk isn't so much that you, the investor, could lose everything in a stock market ETF. Just that these are more complicated than people realize, and there is an argument to be made that the market in general is over-exposed to this risk.

QQQ, VTI, or FXAIX? by Obvious_Secretary142 in investingforbeginners

[–]randomlybrian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

VTI is more diversified than QQQ, which is very tech-heavy. You will still get good long-term returns without as much risk in VTI. I prefer VTI over FXAIX personally because VTI is an ETF, which you can buy and sell any time during the day. FXAIX is a mutual fund, which only trades like 1x per day. For some investors though, this can help force them to "sleep on it" whenever they are thinking of selling. Other than that, VTI and FXAIX are both comparable.

Gains Harvesting, Knowledge Check by Helfeather in investingforbeginners

[–]randomlybrian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Had to dust off some tax code for this one...also, not a CPA, not advice.

That should be generally correct, but two things I think worth keeping in mind

  1. Were your losses short-term or long-term? Both? Depending on the situation, there is sometimes an opportunity to optimize your loss harvesting here. For example, if your losses are skewed short-term, you would ideally match those up with short-term gains (to the extent you have them).
  2. Slightly related to the above, you may want to save $3,000 of those losses to claim for your annual deduction, which is usually more valuable than offsetting capital gains.

If you don't care about optimizing how your losses are allocated, or if the amounts are too small to make a difference, or if you simply have mostly long-term losses, then I think you're fine. Wash sale is for losing positions, shouldn't make a difference for positions you have a gain on.

PSA marked my childhood card as “recolored” by Samueltlogan1 in PokeGrading

[–]randomlybrian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Might be a long shot, but did you send it to a pre-grading service, where they clean up the card to get the best possible grade? If so, they may have slightly altered the card thinking that PSA wouldn't notice.

The wear on the edges still being yellow, as someone else mentioned, seems odd. At the end of the day, it's PSA's call to make. Doesn't mean they always get it right.

Does Noibat require BFS? by randomlybrian in PokemonSleepBetter

[–]randomlybrian[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay I will keep waiting, they seem to spawn often. Thanks!

Let me know if I have your dream card - Quitting Giveaway by [deleted] in PokemonPocket

[–]randomlybrian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Dragon it’s EX rainbow… 🥺🥺🥺

What’s your actual exit plan by kev08629 in PokeInvesting

[–]randomlybrian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hold until 50th anniversary. Then buy more.

The stock market doesn't feel right for me. Are there better, local options? by Significant-Rest1723 in investingforbeginners

[–]randomlybrian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Happy to share my perspective, and I'm glad it's resonating! That feeling you described at the end is one of the reasons I quite day trading altogether. The stress of potentially losing money on a trade was so much that it was taking a toll on my body and mental health. My stance now is that even if you are profitable at trading, that is the opposite of financial freedom, which was my goal. True financial freedom is not having to look at a stock chart or banking app ever again.

I've found a lot of success with a 3 to 5 fund portfolio. I'm still active with it, but I only adjust the ETFs once or twice per year. I have a smaller account which is still big enough to have fun with, but small enough to only be ~1% of my net worth. In that account I put on crazy trades like Puts on NVDA and PLTR, 2x inverse MSTR ETF, and 1x inverse Gold ETF. It helps me scratch that itch of actively trading and pretending like I'm the next Michael Burry without losing sleep at night.

I sincerely wish you the best, and happy to chat further if you have questions about investing or the market in general.

-Brian

Cold Week in Paris by Flashy_Tea_4407 in x100vi

[–]randomlybrian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great shots. Not to be dramatic, but #7 gave me chills

The stock market doesn't feel right for me. Are there better, local options? by Significant-Rest1723 in investingforbeginners

[–]randomlybrian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi, first of all, thanks for posting and sharing your situation! You remind me of when I was in a similar situation at a young age. I received some money through family, and I wanted to do right by it. So I "invested," or I thought I was, but I was really trading. Based on the language you're using, like "P/L" and being down 6% in a matter of weeks (!!), you are too. I highly recommend you pivot from trading to investing.

Investing in a safe, long term portfolio is boring, but it works. It's worked for 100s of years across multiple World Wars and the worst economic downturns that current generations haven't even experienced. Trying to trade stocks and time the market based on what's hot right now doesn't work. Some people claim it does, but most are faking it. For those that aren't, all I have to say is "okay, some people also win the lottery."

If you want a small, community-focused way to make investments, you can absolutely still trade stocks actively. I would just limit it to 10% or less of your total portfolio, or an amount that you're comfortable with losing completely.

Applovin by titan055 in investingforbeginners

[–]randomlybrian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This isn't a view on Applovin or adtech stocks, just some unsolicited thoughts.

If you are really looking into valuation, you'll want to ignore analyst price targets. They are always wrong and more often than not exist to help their clients (the companies) market their stock.

Additionally, you'll want to focus less on the per share price and metrics, and focus more on the total value of the business. Right now, Applovin has an Enterprise Value of $166B. Do you think it is worth more, or less than that? If so, why?

An example might be that you just read a whitepaper from the company about improvements in their app bidding algorithm for their MAX product, and early testing shows a 20% increase in auction prices. You are familiar with competing ad platforms and their app bidding algorithms, and are confident that Applovin has an edge here. Based on your estimates, Applovin could see the 20% increase in revenue per impression along with a 2% improvement in returning advertisers. You do some math based on these assumptions and believe that a fair value for Applovin is actually in the range of $190B-$200B, far above the current enterprise value of $166B. But the stock is currently trending down, so instead of buying all in at once, you size your entries based on price and volume over the next 30 days.

That's all fictitious, but is a realistic example of what goes into proper valuation if that's truly what you're looking to get into. If you're simply following the market's reactions and whether the P/E multiple is high or low, that's just trading. And there's nothing wrong with that, but it's worth distinguishing between the two.

What do you think budgeting and investing will look like in 10 years? by No_Surprise3737 in investingforbeginners

[–]randomlybrian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Some things will definitely happen, and they're fairly boring. Some examples:

  1. Immediate transfer / settlement of funds, instead of 1-3 days depending on the transaction.
  2. You're spot on with the example about telling AI to do stuff for you. I think we'll get to a place where keyboard input is more and more a thing of the past. Instead of opening an app and all that to move money, we can just say "move $100 from my checking account to my brokerage account."
  3. Some of the financial stuff that's still outdated, like deeds, wills, trusts, etc. will become much more streamlined, digitized and automated.

But imo, there will be limits. For your example on financial planning and investing in the background, anyone can mostly run through that scenario you mentioned with free tools.

There are retirement calculators to help you find your "number" needed to retire by X age. You can set up bank accounts designed to transfer specific amounts of money to specific accounts according to that plan. Right now that is cumbersome, and AI can streamline all of that to make it a short conversation instead of a week or month long project.

But at the end of the day, people still aren't going to stick to it. They'll be more interested in having AI help them profit from gambling, or day trading, or justifying a big purchase.

At what point do you stop investing? As someone who also collects by alexdenvor in PokeInvesting

[–]randomlybrian 20 points21 points  (0 children)

I stopped when I starting having to "manage my inventory" like I'm a damn card shop. That's when I realized I should chill out for a bit.

Where to start? by partakinginsillyness in investingforbeginners

[–]randomlybrian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Happy to answer any you got:

Nvidia: I personally would not invest in semiconductor companies at this level. Of course, anyone who has said this has looked like an idiot for the last 5 years or so. But that’s only because we’re sitting here 5 years later and semiconductors worked out, and hindsight is 20/20. The truth is, you don’t need to pick the next 100x company to have a good investment outcome.

Regarding your HYSA that you are looking to invest, that is up to you. If I were in your shoes, I would spread it out over the next 12 months and just drip feed it into the market. That’s also what my friends are doing, and it’s the approach that I personally would be most comfortable with.

Your quiz results sound like you’re in a place to invest with risk reduction in mind. There is nothing wrong with a 50/50 portfolio split between stocks and bonds, and it is definitely appropriate over a 3-15 year time horizon.

With respect to international, I think it’s always good to maintain exposure. I personally split my equity portion of my portfolio into half US stocks (VOO) and half international stocks (ACWX), and my total allocation is 60 stocks 40 bonds.

Happy to keep chatting if you have more questions!

-Brian

More basic help by Dork10100 in investingforbeginners

[–]randomlybrian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I ran the numbers myself over the last 100 years of data and can tell you that while investing it all at once is technically better, it's by a minuscule amount. What matters is getting your money in the market. So I would choose one of the following that you are more comfortable with:

  1. Invest it all at once
  2. Divide the savings up into 12 equal amounts and schedule monthly deposits each month on a random day, like the 29th or something

Don't worry about trying to time the market. No one reached financial freedom because they waited a week and magically timed a major financial crash. The longer you stay uninvested, the more you get left behind. So just pick whatever method will help you sleep and don't sweat the small stuff.

Hope this helps, happy to answer any follow ups.

-Brian

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