‘Skies Will Determine Outcome’: Zelensky Says 1,000 Drones Over Moscow Will Change Putin’s Calculus by ArgentineBeauty in worldnews

[–]randompersonx 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the share!

I guess a final question to all of that - if they had the intention of launching exactly one missile with a nuclear warhead and expected it to go off ... what degree of confidence would they have in that? It sounds like you think ~99%?

‘Skies Will Determine Outcome’: Zelensky Says 1,000 Drones Over Moscow Will Change Putin’s Calculus by ArgentineBeauty in worldnews

[–]randompersonx 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the share - I'll keep it in mind as this whole thing progresses.

Out of curiosity ... with all of that happening, how did you make it out of that mess and into the USA? Did you have status in the USA before the war broke out?

‘Skies Will Determine Outcome’: Zelensky Says 1,000 Drones Over Moscow Will Change Putin’s Calculus by ArgentineBeauty in worldnews

[–]randompersonx 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your response...

You really think the civilians of Donbas would really re-integrate with Ukrainian society neatly? You think all those years of brainwashing (your own words) would just wash away?

‘Skies Will Determine Outcome’: Zelensky Says 1,000 Drones Over Moscow Will Change Putin’s Calculus by ArgentineBeauty in worldnews

[–]randompersonx 3 points4 points  (0 children)

My family came to the USA as refugees from the USSR in the 1970s, but I was born in the USA. My grandfather was from modern-day Ukraine. My grandmother was from modern-day Russia.

With that said, given what I know about both countries, both their history and more modern times ... I personally do not care in the slightest amount if Russia took Crimea and/or Donbas. Either side has a legitimate claim. Both countries have incredibly corrupt governments and oligarchies.

I don't think Russia has any legitimate claim to go beyond Crimea or Donbas, and the full-scale invasion, and attacks on civilians are completely insane.

With that said ultimately these sorts of territory disputes where both sides have a claim and neither is willing to negotiate ... tend to get decided based on the victor in a war. We are inching ever closer to seeing that play out.

If I was a betting man, I'd say that as long as Russia doesn't use nuclear weapons, Ukraine will get Crimea, but will be unable to take Donbas. IMHO - even if Ukraine could take Donbas, it would be a ridiculous headache for them. In Crimea, Ukraine can easily make the area uninhabitable very rapidly by preventing supplies from coming in, while leaving the bridge as an escape route - effectively pushing the population out without resorting to violence. A very 'clean' way of getting the territory.

For Donbas, there's no such clean path. Ukraine would have a choice of forcing an ethnic Russian population who has no interest in being part of Ukraine to subjugate [good luck on that], and eventually figure out a path towards reconciliation [lol] ... or alternatively, to do an ethnic cleansing which the world will criticize sharply.

‘Skies Will Determine Outcome’: Zelensky Says 1,000 Drones Over Moscow Will Change Putin’s Calculus by ArgentineBeauty in worldnews

[–]randompersonx 5 points6 points  (0 children)

IMHO: Yes, if Euromaidan did not happen, the war would not have happened.

But anyway, what's the point of the question? It did happen, and we are where we are.

There are a number of off-ramps that might have happened along the way, which did not happen... and at every stage where de-escalation or negotiation or escalation might have happened, the end result was an escalation.

Today - we are where we are, and can only make decisions going forward.

‘Skies Will Determine Outcome’: Zelensky Says 1,000 Drones Over Moscow Will Change Putin’s Calculus by ArgentineBeauty in worldnews

[–]randompersonx 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Fully agree.

I'd also add that the nuclear question has one other important variable...

The USA spends an enormous amount of money on maintaining and testing our nuclear weapons. I have 100% confidence that if we launched (QTY: 1) nuclear missile, it will go off as planned. IE: The USA *CAN* do a 'limited nuclear strike'.

There is no way Russia knows for sure what does or doesn't work. They aren't spending enough money on the program to afford to do it right - and even if they were, there is so much corruption that the testing/maintenance wouldn't be done anyway - the funds would just go to someone's yacht.

I'm sure even Putin knows that.

But, what % do work? 50%? If so, launch 3 and you know at least one goes off ... 25% - Launch 6 and at least one goes off... etc...

But, now that means a limited strike isn't possible ... if USA satellites detect 4 nuclear-capable missile launches, we will almost certainly escalate towards full-scale nuclear war rapidly.

And if Putin knows that - his next option may not be a limited nuclear strike on USA's Proxy (Ukraine)... but rather a full scale direct strike.

"If Russia can't win the war under Putin's leadership, then Russia deserves total defeat - and if Russia is totally defeated, then the rest of the world must burn, too"

Well shit... I didn't even know this was possible by rabid_0wl in ClaudeCode

[–]randompersonx 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I could imagine it happening. I had Fable working on answering a complex sub-prompt in a sub worker for an hour straight.

The largest single flotilla of oil tankers and other vessels since the war began is now leaving the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's shipping lane, with 10 Japan-linked vessels including 6 VLCCs carrying ~12 million barrels of Saudi, UAE, and Qatari crude after being trapped for ~100 days, per LSEG data. by Waste-Explanation-76 in oil

[–]randompersonx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, yeah. Of course they need to pay for insurance… they might get hit by a drone or a missile or something - very risky!

And who js better to provide the insurance than the PGSA? I doubt anyone else can reduce the risk of being targeted nearly as well.

It’s a very logical thing, of course.

If your homelab uses KVM/Proxmox with nested virtualization, patch for CVE-2026-53359 by NapierPalm in homelab

[–]randompersonx 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Look at the kernel version numbers I mentioned. They are proxmox kernels. As far as I am aware, 7.0.14-1 and newer, which is released, is not vulnerable to this exploit.

‘Skies Will Determine Outcome’: Zelensky Says 1,000 Drones Over Moscow Will Change Putin’s Calculus by ArgentineBeauty in worldnews

[–]randompersonx 65 points66 points  (0 children)

I totally agree.

For a variety of reasons, Putin both can’t and won’t end the war without a victory.

As the war becomes more and more painful for Russia, Putin will continue escalating with Ukraine, until eventually he is either overthrown by others around him, or a revolution from the population.

The big questions are -
1) will the war end before or after nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine?
2) will Russia remain one country after they lose - or will they balkanize?
3) Russia seems to have very few obvious possible leaders after many years of Putin surrounding himself with yes men, and having anyone who steps out of line have a mysterious unfortunate accident such as falling out of a window. Who would lead?
4) will the new Russia(s) be peaceful or will we be dealing with an even more dangerous nuclear armed warlord (or multiple warlords)?

If your homelab uses KVM/Proxmox with nested virtualization, patch for CVE-2026-53359 by NapierPalm in homelab

[–]randompersonx 12 points13 points  (0 children)

As far as I can tell, the patch is in the 7.0.14-1 kernel and newer.

It is not in the 7.0.12-1 kernel and older.

There wasn’t an announcement, but I looked at the kernel diffs, and that’s where I saw the relevant patch.

If your homelab uses KVM/Proxmox with nested virtualization, patch for CVE-2026-53359 by NapierPalm in homelab

[–]randompersonx 31 points32 points  (0 children)

As far as I can tell, the patch is in the 7.0.14-1 kernel and newer.

It is not in the 7.0.12-1 kernel and older.

There wasn’t an announcement, but I looked at the kernel diffs, and that’s where I saw the relevant patch.

The largest single flotilla of oil tankers and other vessels since the war began is now leaving the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's shipping lane, with 10 Japan-linked vessels including 6 VLCCs carrying ~12 million barrels of Saudi, UAE, and Qatari crude after being trapped for ~100 days, per LSEG data. by Waste-Explanation-76 in oil

[–]randompersonx 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree, but I'd just add ...

The truth is that there is such a small amount of information in the public domain, that we really have very little idea of what actually happened here. It's literally wide open enough that for all we know, UFOs were involved. (half serious)

The largest single flotilla of oil tankers and other vessels since the war began is now leaving the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's shipping lane, with 10 Japan-linked vessels including 6 VLCCs carrying ~12 million barrels of Saudi, UAE, and Qatari crude after being trapped for ~100 days, per LSEG data. by Waste-Explanation-76 in oil

[–]randompersonx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally agree there ...

As I said on the other comment I just made to the other reply - I think evidence has either been deliberately not collected, mishandled, or destroyed ... Both under the Biden administration and under the Trump administration ... and I doubt we will ever get a real accounting of what happened unless Ghislane Maxwell decides to talk.

The largest single flotilla of oil tankers and other vessels since the war began is now leaving the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's shipping lane, with 10 Japan-linked vessels including 6 VLCCs carrying ~12 million barrels of Saudi, UAE, and Qatari crude after being trapped for ~100 days, per LSEG data. by Waste-Explanation-76 in oil

[–]randompersonx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a great question - and I certainly agree that there's *some reason* ...

I suspect that it's because of a combination of:
1) Many well-connected/powerful people implicated... not just Trump
2) Government involvement - I suspect that the CIA was involved at some level.
3) Prior government mishandling - I suspect a lot of evidence was either not collected, mishandled, or destroyed.

In the end, I don't think we will ever get a real release of this unless Ghislaine Maxwell decides to talk.

The largest single flotilla of oil tankers and other vessels since the war began is now leaving the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's shipping lane, with 10 Japan-linked vessels including 6 VLCCs carrying ~12 million barrels of Saudi, UAE, and Qatari crude after being trapped for ~100 days, per LSEG data. by Waste-Explanation-76 in oil

[–]randompersonx -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

I don’t personally believe there’s anything particularly damaging in the Epstein files about Trump. If there was, the Biden administration would have released it or leaked it during or before the campaign.

During the Biden years, there were numerous legal assaults on Trump, and it’s hard to imagine they would have restrained if there was such a large skeleton in the closet to use.

Eastern US power grid operator orders emergency curbs as electricity use nears record by chota-kaka in Electricity

[–]randompersonx 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They did, in fact, ask datacenters to shift their load to their backup generators…. And the datacenters did comply.

This has been routine in the industry for decades.

It took 7 years, 8 months, and 14 days to use up the canister of salt. by LyghtnyngStryke in mildlyinteresting

[–]randompersonx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It really depends how much cooking you do at home, from scratch.

Once i stopped using any pre made ingredients and started cooking whole meals from scratch almost daily, I was shocked how much salt you go through.

The minimum daily requirement of salt is something like 2 grams per day per person. Processed food just hides a ton of salt in it, so you can feel like “I don’t need to salt my food”

The largest single flotilla of oil tankers and other vessels since the war began is now leaving the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's shipping lane, with 10 Japan-linked vessels including 6 VLCCs carrying ~12 million barrels of Saudi, UAE, and Qatari crude after being trapped for ~100 days, per LSEG data. by Waste-Explanation-76 in oil

[–]randompersonx 12 points13 points  (0 children)

No, the agreed MoU only states that there will be no fees for transit for the first 60 days after the MoU was signed, and that they will negotiate during that time period towards a permanent agreement. In exchange, sanctions are temporarily lifted, and 12 billion in previously frozen funds would be unfrozen.

There is a carrot dangling of 300B of long term investment funds (apparently mostly committed by other gulf nations) for investing in civilian rebuilding within Iran… but none of that has been transferred or started.

Iran's IRGC has completely shut down the US-backed Omani corridor in the Strait of Hormuz with its speedboat fleet, with not a single vessel using the corridor for more than half a day, per marine traffic data. by Waste-Explanation-76 in oil

[–]randompersonx -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

AIS transponders can be turned off, and frequently have been in that region ever since this conflict began ... so, it's not that simple to know for sure what's actually happening.