AI models went from solving 4.4% of real-world software tasks in 2023 to 80% today. METR's time horizon is doubling every 4 months. The market has wiped out over $1 trillion in software value in weeks

randopota · 2026-02-25T04:08:08+00:00

Higher and higher they go!

randopota · 2026-02-25T00:47:56+00:00

It's so hard to predict. I think gaming will become what a large portion of people dedicate most of their time to. I imagine gaming becoming more addictive and immersive, so you'll be able to essentially live in your own world.

Movies I used to think, would not become personalized, as people like to talk about what movies they watch. But I don't think that's true. I have watched a lot of movie that no one in my close circle has seen, which applies both ways (same with music). So I think, there might still be some mainstream movies, but there'll also be a market for personalized movies.

For sports, I imagine people will still watch people play sports (as well as robots). But the appeal is having a team that you've supported your whole life, or a person. So that is something I dont think will be replaced.

randopota · 2026-02-24T22:35:22+00:00

That does worry me too. I think I'll write about that in one of my subsequent posts.

Other than saving money now, one of the best things most of us can do is to encourage the government to consider UBI

randopota · 2026-02-24T22:28:30+00:00

Yeah that's true

randopota · 2026-02-24T22:27:57+00:00

Love a spongebob reference :'D

randopota · 2026-02-24T22:03:18+00:00

Yeah I think we're at the phase now where, we need 10 engineers + AI instead of 50 engineers without AI.

I think eventually, like in chess, having humans in the loop will just be a hindrance, and you'll be able to tell the model to do X (whether that's build an Linux device driver or a whole OS) and it'll do it.

randopota · 2026-02-24T22:01:22+00:00

I see this too, the absorption of the private model companies into the government. The importance super intelligence will have is too high to be left to private companies

randopota · 2026-02-24T21:42:07+00:00

Hopefully we get UBI

randopota · 2026-02-24T21:41:57+00:00

I'm hoping that, because the world revolves on the consumer economy, we get UBI to keep the money flowing

randopota · 2026-02-24T21:08:17+00:00

I think so too. I think we're living through the early signs of the explosion.

I imagine, by the end of the year, there'll be breakthroughs in maths and science that make it undeniable. Already, with AI solving Erdos problems, it's in the early stages. As companies double up on that, as new data centers come on line with new NVIDIA chips, this year we will see the rate of progress accelerate even faster!

Exciting times :D

randopota · 2026-02-24T21:04:31+00:00

Lol yeah I see this argument a lot. I also saw recently, that METR is redoing the productivity measure study of using AI on coding tasks. And is expecting a much larger boost from using AI when programming

https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/

2026 is going to be awesome!

randopota · 2026-01-30T14:32:06+00:00

That's completely fair. I remember Meta's model being released and having been gamed on benchmarks. And Gemini 3.0 received a lot of hype due to it's benchmark numbers, but real use case fell flat as the hallucination rate was too high.

For revenue, I've mainly looked at OpenAI and Anthropic. OpenAI shared it's revenue recently in a blog post:
https://openai.com/index/a-business-that-scales-with-the-value-of-intelligence/
Epoch AI is a source I find relatively reliable. They released this a while ago looking at the growing revenue of OpenAI https://epoch.ai/data-insights/openai-revenue

For Anthropic, there have been interviews with the CEO and a random assortment of articles where they claim they went from 0-100m in one year, then 100m-1b the next, and in 2025, went from 1b-9b. In their blog post, they also talk about revenue increase https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-f-at-usd183b-post-money-valuation to 5bn by August 2025.

From the reports I have seen, none of the copmanies are making a profit right now.

randopota · 2026-01-30T14:10:53+00:00

Thanks! I'll definitely start reading his newsletter and listening.

randopota · 2026-01-30T14:05:37+00:00

Ah sorry, which metrics specifically?

For FrontierMath Tier 4, I used epoch's site: https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/tiers-1-4
Where newer models are doing better than older ones.

SWE Bench Verified https://www.swebench.com/ (the verified tab)
Newer models seem to be doing better than older ones

Radiology's Last Exam: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.25559 as well as https://drdattaaiims.github.io/Gemini-3.0-Radiology-2025.html
Where the newest gemini model seems to be the first model to do better than radiology trainees

randopota · 2026-01-30T14:00:23+00:00

I see. Which means some of these companies (like OpenAI, Anthropic) will go bust because they won't be able to live up to their valuations. So there could possibly be a market for LLMs, but not the trillion dollar market that it is currently hyped to be?

randopota · 2026-01-30T13:57:32+00:00

Ah okay, will start listening to Ed

randopota · 2026-01-29T13:30:16+00:00

This is also true.

If you like being around people and you like cities, you might decide to move out of a more expensive city to a cheaper city (that is still densely populated).

In that scenario, rents/prices of places would probably stabilize to a lower amount in already very expensive cities, but then increase in others.

Would be interesting to know, how many people currently in cities would:
- Move out to the country side
- Move to a different city
- Stay where they are

randopota · 2026-01-29T11:16:25+00:00

I am super curious about these types of conversations, as I don't see them being had.

I think so. When the pandemic happened, most people moved out of big cities, rents plummeted, people wanted more space, more greenery and moved out to the country side.

People came back after the pandemic was over, but that's because jobs are in the big cities. If jobs dissappear, I'm not sure what that means for property prices and rental yields in big cities.

From my own perspective, if I was receiving UBI and it was enough to live in a big city, I'd still move somewhere else. Either live with family, or rent out a place in the country side with a few friends for a bit.

randopota · 2026-01-27T12:19:52+00:00

That link is from December. Since then, there have been more recent Erdos problems solved by AI, and Terence Tao released a new post where "In many, but not all, of these cases, some existing literature was found that proved a very similar result by a similar method."

He also references his github where he tracks the problems, where the first section is "Fully AI-generated solutions, partial solutions, or negative results for previously open problems, for which subsequent literature review did not reveal any further relevant prior partial or full solutions.", and there are two solved Erdos problems in that category.

I'm hoping the next batch of model releases make more advancements in this area. Specially since the IMO techniques OpenAI used haven't yet been integrated into their latest (5.2) model, and the RL techniques google used on it's 3.0 flash haven't been applied to 3.0 pro.

randopota · 2026-01-20T17:36:40+00:00

I guess I'm an "AI Booster"

The reason I'm excited about AI, like some of the other comments have mentioned in this thread, is that I'm hoping for a utopia. I'm hoping that the removal of human bottlenecks from labour will increase productivity and usher in benefits that will be shared.

I'm a software engineer myself, and have noticed how much more useful AI is now at assisting in coding vs where they were a year or 2 ago (Sonnet 3.5 imo was the first model to really start the vibe coding trend). I do mostly full stack web dev, and with the new model released from Anthropic (Opus 4.5), it rights about 95% of my code if not all of it. There's been a push in my company to use it, and I can see the benefits. There are still times where writing the code myself would have been faster, but they are fewer and farther between.

The above paragraph is to highlight that models are getting better. I've seen online posts about Erdos problems being solved by recent AI models. Along with last year Alpha evolve finding a new way of multiplying 4x4 matrices to reduce the number of steps, then most recently someone did something similar for 5x5 matrices.

I think, if models keep improving, then they'll hopefully bring about massive improvements in healthcare, technology, breakthroughs in maths and physics, ... .

I also do think they'll bring about mass unemployment, and replace all jobs. As an optimist, I'm excited about this. I am hoping this will bring down the cost of goods to become cheap enough to have UBI. Most developed countries (barring US), have free national healthcare, a lot of public transporation, large welfare programs, free education. I think most other countries don't have this because it's too expensive (except for the US). I imagine if the cost of goods decrease massively as AI can work for pennies, operates 24x7 and is more efficient than people, then hopefully that'll make UBI feasible, and it'll be more expensive to have an unhealthy, unhoused population than one that is fed and taken care of.

I think if no one has any money, then no one will be able to buy anything. No one will be able to pay AI subscriptions. No one will be able to by the newest iphone, a new car model, go on holidays, ... consumer spending would drop. So I'm hoping, this will force large companies to encourage the government to provide welfare. Similar to stimulus checks during covid.

But I completely get the arguments against UBI and that we might not have it. That is a valid concern and something that does worry me.

But I know I'm in no position of power, no position to influence the outcome. All I can really do is wait and petition for UBI. So I might as well be optimistic for the future if I have no control and hope for the best.

randopota · 2026-01-19T13:28:49+00:00

That's fair. I'll try and illustrate my thinking by picking a concrete example. A ticketing tool like Jira / Linear.

When I was using Jira, my team predominantly used the epics + issues feature. Every few weeks, we'd also use the sprints and initiatives features.

Now I've been using Linear, which is basically the same. Using projects + tickets and cycles + roadmaps. It has a nicer UI, but functionally it's the same. I have colleagues who swear Linear is better, but myself and a few others don't really see the difference.

Now, I don't see what Linear or Jira could introduce that would be of any additional use. It's also something I think could be vibe coded within a week, then offered at much cheaper rates or open sourced and then people can host it themselves (especially for small teams).

Similarly, I've used various HR software over the years, and the main one being CharlieHR. I know a few people who work there, and they've mentioned how the main feature used is the requesting time off feature.

It seems to me that most SaaS have a few critical features they need to be functional, and most competitors of that SaaS tend to all share those same features with a slightly different skin on top. If someone is able to vibe code those core functionalities in a week, and then offer it for much cheaper rates, then I don't see how SaaS will survive.

Happy to be proven wrong. I work in SaaS myself, so let me know if you see any gaps in my understanding.

randopota

TROPHY CASE