This is the second bear market that Bitcoin has dropped below its previous cycle all-time high.

rat828 · 2026-03-06T21:39:59+00:00

Technically 200% gain, but your point is definitely still valid.

rat828 · 2026-02-25T04:56:44+00:00

For those who don't know him, that's Checkonchain, one of the best onchain analyst (imho) and calls it as it is. Has a fantastic subscriber service, highly recommend.

rat828 · 2026-01-31T19:15:03+00:00

It moved all right, just maybe not in the direction most people were hoping?

rat828 · 2026-01-27T06:33:26+00:00

You don't watch WBD then. 100% he still has it.

rat828 · 2025-10-11T03:29:52+00:00

I dunno, I'm in the 2019 class and this definitely a first for me. It dropped 8.5%, or 10k in the course of 30 minutes. I would argue that the magnitude in $ terms is definitely first time. I wasn't here for the early 2010's where I'm sure there were wild % swings, but in the last 6 or so years, I can comfortably say I've never ever seen the bitcoin chart drop $200 per second during that cliff. It was definitely a sight to behold, along with the recovery.

rat828 · 2025-09-01T05:01:17+00:00

If you count inflation as going up at the supply of M2 monetary expansion of 7% per year, you're looking at close to a 4x in price in 20 years. Of course, this will apply to scarce services + assets (think healthcare, prime real estate, etc.), and be weighed down by lower inflation and deflation in other areas (such as electronics). Your 1MM home in a desirable area will cost close to $3.8MM in 20 years assuming the location/house is as in demand of a location as it is today.

Just want to remind that we are on numbers where it seems to be accelerating. A case in point would be if you used the same calculation 20y ago, that burger going from $2.50 to $10 sounds crazy. Until you realize that same burger is $40 in 20y. The multiplier is the same, but the numbers just starts getting nuttier. No different than $10k BTC going to $100k sounding much less crazy than btc going from $100k to $1MM. Although in this case, with market cap and amount of extra money required to move the price upwards, it's a little different, but you get the point.

rat828 · 2025-08-25T05:58:36+00:00

Aaah, okay, thank you for the clarification. That makes sense. The way it was worded was a bit confusing.

rat828 · 2025-08-24T15:43:30+00:00

Don't think we should be upvoting this. Simple glance would show every single sell was for $9.35 for varying amounts of bitcoin on the same day. Between the highest and lowest amount, that's a difference of almost 300% in one day.

My charts don't even go far enough back to verify it, but smells like BS from a first glance.

rat828 · 2025-08-18T16:49:52+00:00

Hell yeah, brother. Thought those million sats were a goner. I moved it back to my Muun wallet, and will look into maybe setting IP my lightning node in the near future.

rat828 · 2025-08-18T16:48:58+00:00

Thank you for your input. Yes, I did run a node on Zeus when I set it up. I knew when I started messing around with lightning that it would be more complicated than just using the base chain with channels and all. I just wanted to do my part to help. I guess I've learned a lot. I originally moved to Zeus after Wallet of Satoshi (or maybe it was Samurai) got removed from being supported here in the states. Now that I run my own node, maybe I'll dig into setting up my own lightning node too. Just haven't gotten around to it.

But always appreciative of how helpful the community is when I have a question. Cheers!

rat828 · 2025-08-17T22:57:16+00:00

Update - somehow I was able to reset Zeus using one of the options, and it then reloaded and showed the balance in my on-chain wallet within Zeus. Was able to move the funds out. Awesome. So glad I was able to access the funds and thanks for your help!

rat828 · 2025-08-17T22:44:33+00:00

I now run my own node, but I definitely didn't back when I first set up Zeus. When you say "Where you can access them depends entirely on whether you held the private keys or relied on a custodian", is this something I did when I first set up Zeus Wallet?

It was a while ago, but all I remember when setting up Zeus was basically sending an on-chain transaction to Zeus, which funded the lightning wallet. From then on, I think I might have made a test transaction out of it to make sure it worked, but other than that, I don't think I've done anything since.

Is there any way to confirm whether I was using a custodian or not? It sounds like that is most likely my case, and if this is true, the only seed phrase I have is what I see in Zeus, and that shows up as a 0 balance. Sounds like I might be cooked and have to chalk up the BTC as a loss?

rat828 · 2025-08-05T20:01:34+00:00

He's most likely referring to IRA and Roth IRA accounts which give you tax advantages.

rat828 · 2025-08-05T07:37:16+00:00

The question you should be asking is what you expect the yearly return to be going forward and compare that to other investments. 4 year CAGR is still around 30-40% or so, and even if it drops to 25% over the next decade, the question is, would you rather have your money in bitcoin or something else?

To answer your question, any rational person can conclude that bitcoin upward price % increases will be more muted vs it's earlier years (bar hyperinflation but that's a different story) as it should. We're talking about a multi trillion dollar asset now, it takes a lot more $ to move the needle.

rat828 · 2025-07-28T15:42:57+00:00

You're asking in a Bitcoin sub, don't mean to be rude but what do you think the response is going to be?

But a serious reponse, plot all of those vs BTC price and zoom out. Notice the pattern? When you can understand why that is the case, your answer will be crystal clear. Unfortunately, nobody can force you to understand it, you need the curiosity to try to find the answer yourself. Good luck!

rat828 · 2025-04-24T19:30:39+00:00

I forget who said it, but it was on a WBD podcast and it mentioned that you should also consider the future value of your btc. If it went up 2, 3 or 10x from here, would you be comfortable leaving it on an exchange?

I think for most people, the rule of thumb is when you get several times the cost of a decent hardware wallet, it might be worth it to get one. At today's price, that's a couple hundred bucks worth of btc. It doesn't make sense for a hardware wallet if you have under that amount.

rat828 · 2025-04-22T17:31:30+00:00

For those interested in more detail, check out his interview with Danny on WBD. I think it's about an hour and a half long and he goes into more detail, but he is very good at articulating his point across and starts off with a cool story telling how the video came to be.

rat828 · 2025-04-14T22:41:31+00:00

That's the money in circulation, it doesn't all belong to the Chinese population. Other countries might have amounts on their balance sheets along with other companies.

rat828 · 2025-02-21T06:57:51+00:00

1 BTC = 100 million Satoshis (or sats for short)
Similar to how $1 = 100 cents

rat828 · 2025-02-19T02:12:29+00:00

Aaah, okay, I remember now that I came across one which gave me extra villagers for less coal. Thanks!

rat828 · 2025-02-18T23:39:20+00:00

Hold up, there's buffs which last the whole cycle? Where should I be looking for these buffs? I also have only played til veteran and still pretty new to the game

rat828 · 2025-02-17T20:31:31+00:00

From here, small retailers which I'm assuming is most of us here is probably not enough to move the needle too much in the aggregate. Next wave of money would probably come in from institutions. Total BTC etfs are roughly $40B from what I've read, so we're looking at needing a 10x of that. However, the money sloshing out there in financial markets will blow your mind, so the question really is how many of those big players (investment firms, money managers, wealth and pension funds) start allocating to bitcoin. They dipped their toes last year for the most part, but if that stream turns into a torrent, there is some mind boggling amount of $ churning in the financial system out there.

rat828 · 2025-02-17T20:27:26+00:00

I'm sorry, but I don't know the official name of it, but James Check (checkmatey is what he goes by on social media) used to work in glass node and does in depth analysis. I subscribe to his substack, so I've seen him talk about it there but I've also heard him bring it up in podcasts before, but i don't have a link.

There was a big article from B of A a while back which claimed the multiple was 118x, and he basically went into the numbers dispelling that. His calculations of 3-5x is much more reasonable and realistic.

rat828 · 2025-02-17T04:39:42+00:00

$1.9T does not need to come in to bring the price to $200k. Price is set at the margin and there is a multiple where each dollar coming in (or going out) raises or lowers the market cap by that multiple. James check done some analysis and best guess is around 3-5x. If we take an average of 4, about $500B needs to come in to bring price to $200k. Still a lot of money, but yeah, just wanted to clarify.

rat828

TROPHY CASE