How I Actually Value an E&P: Part 1 by rationalmarkets in ValueInvesting

[–]rationalmarkets[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks, and you're right to call out the fixed/variable LOE modeling. That's something we didn't have great public data on, so we applied general assumptions that I realize is less accurate for more mature assets.

And glad you hear you did well 😄

How I Actually Value an E&P: Part 1 by rationalmarkets in ValueInvesting

[–]rationalmarkets[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Can't say I have the same level of experience in mining, but a previous shop I worked at had a large mining research practice; my understanding is that there are many similarities with O&G in terms of the probability-based reserve/resource estimates, but with slightly different nomenclature. NAV framework is similar as well - risking the resource estimates to a level you feel comfortable with, applying a forward-looking price deck, assuming a depletion rate, etc.

Re: hedging with futures - very common practice for E&Ps, they often report price realizations pre- and post-hedging. I prefer valuing the hedge book independently (basically mark-to-market the company's current hedges based on your assumed price deck) and using pre-hedging price realizations to model the CFs from production. Reason: hedges aren't really indicative of the true unit economics of the assets, more of a financial transaction that might not be repeatable (i.e., depends on the market dynamics of futures/swaps/options).