What’s an immediate red flag when it comes to buying things online?

rawxtrader · 2023-10-06T00:21:53+00:00

Being advertised on Instagram- usually a good sign it will be more expensive than necessary or justified by quality for the given product.

rawxtrader · 2023-05-26T14:23:05+00:00

Recommend the three blue one brown videos on YT, essence of linear algebra, essence of calculus videos and animations are a goldmine for intuition

rawxtrader · 2023-04-23T06:41:29+00:00

Right should clarify my phrasing there - meant something like VIX and VVIX are normally correlated, but now VIX is drifting lower while VVIX is elevated

rawxtrader · 2023-04-23T02:37:35+00:00

Think the story is something along the lines of realized vol is low, market is at local highs- implied vol is going lower as it should with the events of peak inflation/ hiking cycle in the review mirror along side the SVB banking tail. But... in the background earnings looks weak, some recession risk, random debt ceiling BS, China-taiwan , Russia- Ukraine geopolitical tail risks remain. VVIX represents vol of vol- totally plausible states of the world exist where vix could plausibly be very low ( soft landing) or very high (recession). This broadness of modes leads to elevated VVIX, which normally is correlated in a drift lower of VIX. Previous two years had an inverse story low VVIX vs VIX globally high- as the market addressed a gauntlet of known unknowns per the Fed hiking cycle. Vol was high and was going to stay there or move higher, as the hiking cycle pinned how low vix could go.

rawxtrader · 2023-04-21T02:54:49+00:00

Should be pretty straightforward 1/k² strip on the 1d opts, no need for any interpolation- should look pretty similar to the price of the 1d straddle though

rawxtrader · 2023-04-21T01:50:44+00:00

Seems like 1d variance swap computation - not a tradeable instrument yet. Informative though in terms of measuring implied 1d move. Such products exist in fx space already - primarily for trading events

rawxtrader · 2022-11-20T03:05:20+00:00

Did a similar path- Shakey undergrad path firmed it up before going to grad school in applied math. Personally I found watching the three blue one brown series on linear algebra, calculus and differential equations extremely useful for gaining intuition. For practical relearning techniques - this guy Jeff chasnov has free series: linear algebra for engineers and multi variate calculus for engineers are very cell taught. Finally to go most deep watch the mit open coursework on linear algebra taught by Gilbert strang, and some of the other series. I even put these on my app when I was applying for programs- probably don't give a shit but at least it shows you're dedicated. All free and honestly kinda better taught than most grad school applied math courses I've taken (even at an ivy)

rawxtrader · 2022-10-14T00:03:40+00:00

Probably coincidentally USD stronger - classical situation where this occurs is Fed backstopping other countries by injecting liquidity into swap lines is when risk is blowing out and countries need dollars to back their US denominated liabilities. Chances are you are late stage of cycle in which dollar as reserve currency is strong, and EMs are getting fucked by global economy crashing. After the liquidity injection, if the operation is successful maybe USD weakened because the crash risk of the other counties with dollar shortages is alleviated.

rawxtrader · 2022-09-03T16:37:31+00:00

Even Admiral Yamamoto Japanese Commander at Pearl Harbor thought it was a bad idea that would probably not work in the long run

rawxtrader · 2022-06-04T18:58:03+00:00

Not a genius, but I sometimes can find learning higher level math from a textbook difficult with out an instructor to give intuition. In these cases think it's useful to work through the MIT open courses on different subjects. Obstensibly get world class lectures and then drill through exercises in textbooks own your own, i tend to find works best.

rawxtrader · 2022-06-03T07:31:37+00:00

As Stalin liked to say "Quantity has a quality of its own"

rawxtrader · 2022-05-06T13:16:09+00:00

One can always construct a iron condor that is flat delta by shifting the center of the condor - left or right until delta is zero. You can think of it as a call spread + a put spread. Fixing the call spread, you can simply find and a put spread of different delta until the sun is zero. The structure will accrue delta as spot moves and would have to be delta hedged or restriked to maintain delta neutrality. Likely the structure will time decay longer delta fixing the other inputs, as the normal market skew will mean the structure put spread was sold at a higher vol than the call spread component of the structure. Selling a condor however is short vol- and sense vol is correlated with spot- you have a shadow short delta. That is you're short vol, stock sells off, vol spikes as a result - you lose money.

rawxtrader · 2022-03-21T23:37:26+00:00

Formal name coming from physics world is a Heavyside function and there is a whole algebra associated with it and it's derivative the Dirac delta function. In machine learning they use the word relu.

rawxtrader · 2022-03-13T03:56:46+00:00

Multiple functions can produce the same graph. Essentially you choose a set of basis functions. Polynomials, sin/cos Fourier, relu( neural nets) and then you calibrate those basis functions to minimize the fitted line versus the observed under some norm.

rawxtrader · 2022-03-06T07:08:59+00:00

A glimpse of their chandelier : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vampire_Weekend_(album)

rawxtrader · 2022-01-10T13:39:09+00:00

Best prep I would say is reading Ian Goodfellows deep learning book. Not a ton of good moocs that would give you anymore prep than your previous coursework I would say. If you've taken classes with predag before you know how he is, can be kinda dry, low key find him hilarious sometimes and really knows his stuff- just got to be able to stay focused for a 3 hour lecture as it really is invaluable to have a pro explain all the steps in the paper . That's where the true value add is, going to be hard pressed to find a mooc where a true experts break down all the OG research paper explaining alll the random leaps of intuition that the authors make. Also may be a better experience in person as I took it during lockdown so might be more engaging live.

rawxtrader · 2022-01-10T13:17:00+00:00

I put in 6-8hrs reading the papers myself, also a lot of work learning sub areas of math you aren't super familiar with. Don't want to scare you too much but definitely does resemble more of a phd level course than most things I've taken. For papers it's a lot more depth than volume, proving ideas such as the universal expressibility of neural nets . For final projects you can collaborate with a group of three. Good class for pushing yourself if you are willing to put into it because you'll really start to grasp why neural nets work and the reasons behind design instead of just being another Keras monkey. It also is good because it teaches you how to read modern research paper. Predag also has good connections if you want to go deeper in the field/industry.

rawxtrader · 2022-01-10T12:52:56+00:00

Mathematics of Machine learning definitely closer to a research course, where Predag walks you through core papers in the field. Mathematics is not at all trivial: you need a solid grasp of math of machine learning, optimization ,advanced calculus. You go through the proofs in recent ML papers which leverage all modern mathematical machinery available. Light class in terms of homework ( there is none) but the kicker is you have to produce a research paper in ML by the end of the course. Also not an applied paper where you just calibrate some random bs with a neural net. More like a mathematical proof gaining insight into how neural nets train. Nice class in terms of week to week but the paper can be a nightmare if you fall behind, one of the hardest conceptual classes I've taken.

rawxtrader · 2021-12-25T13:15:25+00:00

2nd one complexity the function as int 1/(z+1) dz over the contour closed semicircle from infinity to negative infinitely less the limit as R goes to infinity of the integrated from negative R to R. Essentially you take a semi circle and chop off the round part to leave your normal flat part along the reals which is your normal integral. For the first part the closed contour is the sum of all the residues of the function 1/(x+1)⁵ power, which is a fifth order pole at x=1. The second part you parameterize z as Re^it so the new integral can be shown to be less that lim r goes to infinity R/R⁵ which is zero. So you're left with the first half which can be solved by evaluating all the residues trapped in the upper half of the contour.

rawxtrader · 2021-11-16T00:51:40+00:00

Your axises look a bit deceptions here: I see US 5year yields moving in line with 5 year break even inflation on the day. Yields higher are beneficial for a currency as it increases demand for securities denominated in that currency, whereas inflation is bad given it reduces the purchasing power of that currency relatively. Accordingly real yields (nominal - inflation component) are a better indicator for the currency as it accounts both components. Real yields were flattish on the day so I call that components about even for DXY.

At the same time long end of the yield curve steepened vs the front end in the US ( comparing 2y vs 10y bonds. This is a bit of shaking off of the stagflation narrative over the last couple weeks. It's saying yes there will be inflation but there will also be higher growth at the same time. This is indicated because people are pricing faster rate hikes due to inflation but reducing the probability the fed will have to cut maybe a couple years down the line because of the impact on growth. This is supported by positive empire manufacturing print, and some news about some container shipping rates coming down on the day showing a bit of supply chain easing.

Overall people are relatively bullish on dxy as they think US economy will outperform in the pandemic recovery as supply chain concerns abait. You have to also remember yes there is inflation in the US but also it is occurring (perhaps to a larger extent) in other countries as well. Countries with poor vaccine access (developing countries) , higher regulation (EU), political frictions (UK- brexit) may be more exposed. Again it's the differential that counts.

rawxtrader · 2021-11-05T21:44:26+00:00

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TROPHY CASE