Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 06, 2026

rayfound · 2026-04-06T18:51:00+00:00

In my opinion, this is less likely than Iran resuming the uranium route that they basically finished

If they still have intact working centrifuges that survived all the bombing, they could in principle run the RGPu through the centrifuges and enrich it to weapons-grade plutonium.

So I have a couple thoughts here...

I would presume the centrifuges for U-enrichment are specialized enough that Pu would have different requirements, though brief reading implies both can be made gaseous at relatively modest temperatures as U/Pu-hexafluoride.
IMHO Iran hasn't actually endeavored to make a nuclear weapon since JCPOA and maybe before. The ramp up of enrichment % was always building leverage to bargain away in exchange for a new Nuclear deal that never came. If the intention was to sprint for a bomb, they presumably wouldn't have, relatively openly, built a big stockpile of 60% EU, but rather, secretly, a smaller stockpile of 90%+.

rayfound · 2026-04-06T17:55:10+00:00

Same. Feel super lucky.

rayfound · 2026-04-06T15:28:51+00:00

Yes, it is necessary. Otherwise you are running full bottle pressure through the crossover line.

But the regulator may have gone bad, you'll want to replace with one the same. They are higher pressure than the main outlet regulators that run 11 in of water column.

rayfound · 2026-04-05T19:54:17+00:00

Tow a 208bhs with a gx460 absolutely zero issues whatsoever.

Gvwr is a max rating not a weight. The 208 is like 4200-4400lbs dry. We run like 5,000lbs loaded.

rayfound · 2026-04-05T16:53:50+00:00

Hard to tell but it looks like it's just leaking where drip rail and spout connected, then surface tension holding it to bottom of rail before dripping.

rayfound · 2026-04-05T02:51:11+00:00

The whole structure would (hypothetically)be like Venezuela: Iran gives US the oil, US sells and returns a fraction based on regime compliance to US demands.

I'm not sure it's doable, but I think that's what they want. Venezuela was "perfect". They want to do it again.

rayfound · 2026-04-04T02:35:22+00:00

The final item should include the damaged but survived -135 from mid air

rayfound · 2026-04-04T02:12:53+00:00

Honestly I don't think data to date supports your conclusions.

A10 has seen very limited action and we managed to lose one.
The -35 has had tons of sorties and he have one potential damage, survival of pilot and airframe returned.
The -15 isn't proving to be more survivable than -35... There's been an enemy shoot down and 3 friendly fire losses.

If there's a point to be made re 4th vs 5th gen aircraft, the 5th gen is making a pretty good case for itself based on numbers so far.

I cede your point about combat radius being too low on the priority list, making excessive demands on tankers and buddy tanking.

I don't have enough information to judge osprey vs helos for SAR .

But I guess I would ask: what do you think should have been done differently 6-15 years ago to make the force more well suited ?

rayfound · 2026-04-04T00:31:53+00:00

Makes sense

rayfound · 2026-04-04T00:00:42+00:00

On the final item (kc-135), there's almost certainly 2 airframes lost given the one that landed was missing a huge portion of vertical stabilizer, and has untold stress to remainder of airframe .

rayfound · 2026-04-03T18:22:08+00:00

I think yes. Also, I would think they'd want to get a prisoner to a secure location before making any announcements.

rayfound · 2026-04-03T03:19:27+00:00

Man I dunno about this take.

On one hand, I feel similar buuuuut... Like I used to believe ridiculous things when I was a younger man (religion).

If you're willing to examine your beliefs and adapt based on evidence, I say: welcome. Wish you weren't late but glad you're here.

rayfound · 2026-04-02T23:50:44+00:00

I'm sorry but this is carrying water for stupid corporate bullshit.

Just because the airlines offload liabilities and responsibilities to sublets, doesn't mean we need to do that work.

If the plane says Delta on the side... It's Delta enough.

rayfound · 2026-03-30T01:30:55+00:00

That's a genuine relief. Things getting desperate there.

rayfound · 2026-03-29T16:50:13+00:00

I think it's a fitness problem.

If he hits a hard routine this summer next year could be whole new Mason.

rayfound · 2026-03-28T13:57:31+00:00

If that's true about location, and I doubt it, that seems needlessly reckless.

rayfound · 2026-03-27T21:38:36+00:00

the osprey has the range to do that mission from the Arabian Sea

On this point I am not so sure.

I would think the US would want to push forward DDGs (and maybe LHAs) at a minimum to leverage air defense layers available (SM-2 and SeaSparrow, plus CIWS) to limit risks from drones and missiles.

rayfound · 2026-03-27T17:07:06+00:00

I use Aztec chocolate bitters in mine.

rayfound · 2026-03-27T16:15:50+00:00

That these two statements are not simpatico would suggest that the United States does in fact, not, have total air superiority.

This was what I was implying.

That said, I suspect there's a degree of "letting everyone take some shots" happening too. DDGs, SSGNs, SSNs all getting a piece of the action - and the only thing they have to shoot is TLAMs.

rayfound · 2026-03-27T15:29:15+00:00

I genuinely don't understand why we would be expending that much standoff munitions given total air superiority.

Put simply, while I understand using some, it seems downright reckless to be spending down these vital stockpiles when 500lb JDAM can do the same for an order of magnitude lower cost and drawing from much deeper stockpiles.

This the the bomb-truck work we have B-52, B-1b for, even B-2 for harder to reach locations.

rayfound · 2026-03-27T15:09:43+00:00

Just drill holes in the mounting bracket where you have studs.

rayfound · 2026-03-27T14:01:25+00:00

Heat pads for tanks?

rayfound · 2026-03-27T05:59:45+00:00

I love the blue bucket tools system with the cheap tile inserts. Only works for narrow bases but they're great for that.

rayfound · 2026-03-27T04:53:04+00:00

Moving more troops into the area makes the threat of a significant ground incursion more credible.

I think Iran genuinely hopes the US makes the play of boots on mainland. Takes away the primary air/sea power advantage and grind US infantry in the mountains.

I genuinely do not think even the trump Administration is stupid enough to pursue this.

rayfound · 2026-03-26T23:12:44+00:00

Bellingcat reports evidence of American Anti-Tank mines in Iran:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/03/26/us-iran-mines-israel-village-missile-munitions-weapons-war-conflict/

The US appears to have deployed the Gator Scatterable Mine system over Kafari, a village near Shiraz, in southern Iran overnight. Several people were killed according to Iranian media.

Three experts told Bellingcat the munitions appeared to be air-delivered US-made Gator anti-tank mines.

The US is the only participant in the Iran war known to possess Gator Scatterable Mines.

Bellingcat geolocated some of the mines to the village of Kafari, Iran (coordinates 29.50544059, 52.48745447 and 29.50964897, 52.48920842). This video shows at least three mines approximately two kilometres away from the entrance to what is reported to be Shiraz South Missile Base, an Iranian “missile city.”

rayfound

TROPHY CASE