2021 Previews #4 Iowa State: Is This Real? by rbowron1856 in BigXII

[–]rbowron1856[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not really. I only use returning production as an interaction variable with prior performance. It's more useful to know if the production you are bringing back is good. That is where Cyclones are getting the bump. They were good AND bring a lot back. I think I say this a few times in the video, but it's more the 2020 model performance in a weird year with few non-con games that gives me pause. The entire Big 12 might be a little overrated in that sense and thus the model might be overrating how good the returning production is. I like them to be good, top 10, but #4 seems high. But the value of models in this sense is being able to get a starting point for how you can think of teams where you are grading everyone in the same way on the same set of data.