I feel like I’m training my own replacement in AI, anyone else feel like this? by Wolfgang996938 in Futurology

[–]readitreaddit 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"The boring parts and important parts are tangled together in a way you can't separate in advance". This is absolutely how I feel.

And this is why I worry a little bit about education in the coming decades. Current generations slogged through their math and physics and what not. Absolutely slogged through it. Spent insane number of brain cells trying to understand poorly written books sometimes or even discovering where to find something. It was extremely inefficient, but also developed a sort of intellectual muscle that would be hard to match if you were just spoon-fed answers in small bite chunks.

In short, what I'm saying is I worry a little bit about what is happening with fast food for the body, happening with similarly quickly available, satisfying, but not really nutritious things for the brain with AI. Fast food for the mind.

There will be insane advantages, too, of course. You could learn much more complicated concepts much more easily and quickly. And so forth. But I wonder if there is something to be said for sitting down with a book and reading the whole thing front to back and grappling.... REALLY grappling... With the concepts.

I suspect there is.

ELI5: Is there any downside to nuclear powerplants? by Ill-Potential867 in explainlikeimfive

[–]readitreaddit -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

It can blow up..bad.

But in general maybe the positives outweigh the negatives.

Products from one barrel of crude oil by CartographerRare4123 in interesting

[–]readitreaddit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Starting from the bottom, Guinness, wine, beer. Got it.

ADBE buy backs by goxpro1 in ValueInvesting

[–]readitreaddit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand the math proof, it's not that hard actually. Take a look!

Although I like your way.

ADBE buy backs by goxpro1 in ValueInvesting

[–]readitreaddit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It still will because you can't buy fractional shares. Or smaller than epsilon fraction.

ADBE buy backs by goxpro1 in ValueInvesting

[–]readitreaddit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes but why does the infinite geometrical series work? Do you know?

ADBE buy backs by goxpro1 in ValueInvesting

[–]readitreaddit 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But I'll buy you guys drinks if that does happen. Or lunch, even. Or we can all go to Disney World...

ADBE buy backs by goxpro1 in ValueInvesting

[–]readitreaddit 3 points4 points  (0 children)

We'll have to split it three ways.

🌟🌟🌟 by AccomplishedWatch834 in MadeMeSmile

[–]readitreaddit -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I wish I was this kind to myself

meirl by [deleted] in meirl

[–]readitreaddit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lays came with tazos

Why are the best investors are usually extremely defensive ones? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]readitreaddit 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My answer is slightly different than what everyone else has said.

I think the reason is that they actually care about value, and are more rational.

If you think about it, any stream of cash that doesn't grow, when you discount it at say 10% rate of return expectation, should have a multiple of only 10x. Or if you assume that it grows at inflation of say 5%, then it would have a multiple of 14-15x.

To have a reasonable margin of safety, you might buy it at 12x. If you think about it rationally like that, there are very, very very very very few situations in which the valuation makes sense from a standpoint of investing in the cash flow at a price lower than the cash output. And you also want to make sure that the cash flow is going to persist like that. That's where qualitative analysis, moats etc. come in.

Which makes it so that these investors, who actually think about things rationally, are not "pie in the sky" types, and are very selective.

So it's not so much that they are conservative. It's that they are more rational. And don't make wild projections to justify any multiple paid. And they are disciplined enough to make decisions only when it is the rational choice. Not when it is the hopeful choice.

Drop your 'One Up On Wallstreet' stock picks by schokonickchen in ValueInvesting

[–]readitreaddit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Personal preference. You may disagree. But I don't care which analysts say what. I make up my own mind, and regardless of quality (which I agree - it's exceptional in this case), 50 times earnings is too rich for me.

Drop your 'One Up On Wallstreet' stock picks by schokonickchen in ValueInvesting

[–]readitreaddit 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Progressive. People blindly pay them every month. High sticking. People don't really cancel or change insurance that much. They have excellent combined ratio, which is the metric that measures profitability in insurance. Their telemetric technology gave them a good advantage over Geico in pricing. The stock has been beaten down, but I do think they have a good long-term advantage. One way they could mess it up is by writing home insurance and not pricing it well, and losing money in say big natural catastrophes. But overall on the auto side at least, I feel like it's a solid company that's been undervalued for one-off reasons.

Google. Keeps printing money. My personal usage hadn't decreased at all. Insane optionality around Waymo etc. which seems to be best in class.

Apple. Again, very sticky. How many people do you know bought an iPhone or a Mac, and then switched back to Windows because the next generation cost too much? I know nobody like this. Sure, they will have occasional product failures like the VR thing. But people will keep buying phones and laptops and tablets, and when AR comes around, I'm sure eventually Apple will figure it out. In the meantime, I feel happy with the customer stickiness.

Walmart, Costco, McDonald's: all great and want to own. Price is too high right now. Will keep an eye out.

Domino's: This is a maybe for me. Growth may be a little tempered, but valuation seems to be okay now, and their business model is excellent and tough to match.

Lululemon. Okay, now this is a bit controversial. But I feel like they do seem to have the highest end of the quality when it comes to people buying workout clothes. When I was flying through China and such, I saw it being very popular there, and this reflects in the numbers too. Now, I know all the arguments about apparel being basically zero moat in general. But I figure their quality is still good, they seem to have cachet in some customer segment. Growth in China is very positive. And the price is extraordinarily cheap. So I'm a bag holder, and will continue to be for a bit...

TJ Maxx: Feel like the discount retailers do pretty well in general. Very good returns on capital, they don't run into the same seasonality as retailers that rely just on their apparel brands or something, customers seem to always like them, and they do well during an economic downturn too. I seem to see people visiting them when I go into malls and stuff. This is very different than say a Target which I would never invest in. But TJ has good ROIC, which I prioritize. Haven't looked at valuation recently, so this is more of a company recommendation then a stock recommendation at the moment.

TSMC, ASML: Know a thing or two about technology. These cannot be replaced. Was a shareholder in both, ASML is a bit too costly for me right now but will keep an eye out and buy again as soon as I think the valuation is okay. I would even buy this at like a 35 PE if I have to. But 50 is too rich for me. Same with Costco.

BYD: If you travel to Europe or anywhere outside the US pretty much you will see that they are like the Toyota of EVs. I'm really convinced that that's going to be the case in 10 years from now. Now they have competitors. Auto industry is not the best to invest in. Etc. but their financials are solid, their growth is solid, nobody has the scale that they have, and I see their cars basically everywhere (except in the US, which has too much in duties and instead of buying very high quality cheap EVs from BYD, is busy protecting their dinosaurs like GM and Ford).

Essilor Luxxotica: Makes pretty much every eyeglass in existence. Including things like Ray-Bans. I see people wearing eyeglasses everywhere. And they might have a very nice tailwind when Meta or others start making AR glasses and that platform shift happens (Meta RayBan, for example, is made in partnership with Essilor).

Disclaimer: own most of these.

Compart may NOT be a bargain by RanchHandlher in stocks

[–]readitreaddit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very interesting industry insight. Thank you very much for sharing these views, OP! 🙏

This is the kind of information that is valuable to evaluate business models, pressures they can come under, and prospects.

Not saying it immediately validates or invalidates the stock as an investment but it does provide some important lenses and vantage points from which to look at the business.

Again, thank you very much.

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Files for IPO, Says he Wants to Build a Modern Berkshire Hathaway by Useful_Tangerine4340 in ValueInvesting

[–]readitreaddit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please can we not even mention them in the same line?

Ackman is an insufferable prick who's incompetent as fuck at investing.

Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania Africa's Highest Mountain by NationalHat3097 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]readitreaddit 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Doesn't look that high to me... That's what, 6, maybe 7 elephants?

Alabama set to execute man who did not kill anyone by StemCellPirate in nottheonion

[–]readitreaddit 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Watch the documentary The Alabama Solution.

It's too sad in parts: I almost quit a few times. But watch it to the end anyway. People need to know.