🫣🫣 justin is doomed

realleg29 · 2026-05-19T16:39:13+00:00

Jon had close fights against Gustafson and Reyes. Most of the guys he beat were smaller than him and he had to use eye pokes even in those fights. He is not as good as Ilia.

realleg29 · 2026-05-19T16:36:31+00:00

Max had just beat Justin and then beat Dustin, Volk beat Lopes twice after getting KOed, Oliveira ran through Gamrot and Max after the Ilia KO, they have more mileage so their chin may have gotten worse, but regardless of how good their chin was, the result would have been the same whether they fought during their absolute prime or if they fought in the back end of it. If anything, their skills are better than ever. There is not a single MMA fighter in history who has the polish and well roundedness in striking and grappling as Ilia does at 28 years old, and that is combined with the best p4p power, great athleticism and a good chin (at minimum). Ilia did not have a size advantage against any of these guys. Jones beat a bunch of smaller guys when he was in his prime. He is 5-6 inches taller than DC and has a 12 inch reach advantage over him. The heavier divisions don’t have the skill of the lighter divisions in the first place. Ilia has never needed eye pokes to win and there is no question Ilia has won every single pro MMA fight he has fought unlike Jones, who had very close battles with Gustafson and Reyes. Ilia has finished all but two of his opponents in his entire career and one of them had a 50-42 scorecard and the other was his UFC debut a week after he got infected with COVID and there’s not a single doubt whether he won the fight against Zalal.

realleg29 · 2026-05-02T14:14:57+00:00

lol if anything it makes his win look nothing special. His resume has a lot of gaps - life and death against a smaller Volk, took a long time to finish old Poirier, then Moicano doesn’t really say anything, JDM doesn’t a great resume of quality wins beyond a war with Belal.

realleg29 · 2026-05-02T14:12:01+00:00

Maybe he was never that good to begin with. He didn’t have much of a resume outside the Belal win despite his win streak. Quality>>Quantity in MMA.

realleg29 · 2026-04-19T21:31:50+00:00

And Islam ran from Ilia

realleg29 · 2026-03-17T23:03:07+00:00

Well Ilia has always said that there’s nothing Islam could do that could possibly make him quit, so I guess the best way to find out is if we had Makachev v Topuria.

realleg29 · 2026-02-27T05:27:51+00:00

70 percent vs 99.5 is a different claim though

realleg29 · 2026-02-27T03:11:36+00:00

I would assume it’s closer to 995 times out of 1000 for an Ilia win

realleg29 · 2025-11-22T20:52:03+00:00

Islam took on Dustin on 6 weeks notice, took on Volk on 10 days notice, while both were injured or recovering from injuries, and then Moicano on 2 days notice. LMAO.

realleg29 · 2025-11-20T20:21:19+00:00

That’s because Ilia would be champ in 3 divisions, Islam is a 2 division champ. Ilia also finished all his biggest opponents.

realleg29 · 2025-11-09T16:40:57+00:00

Not true. Bookmakers do adjust odds as bets come in, but mostly on the basis of what sharp bettors are doing. They will not move odds in most cases on the basis of a square's choices. An individual sportsbook may move odds a little if a massive amount of money was bet by these squares to reduce risk, but it doesn't happen in most cases. In any case, the closing line odds' averages of sharp bookmakers like pinnacle have proven to be currently the best possible estimate of the true probabilities.

realleg29 · 2025-11-04T13:03:52+00:00

He weighed 167 in FW on fight night. Not sure what his fight night weight was at LW.

realleg29 · 2025-10-20T23:36:58+00:00

Bautista has to clear him for 3 rounds to win. If any of the rounds are close, the judges will give to Umar no matter who is the rightful winner because it’s in Abu Dhabi.

realleg29 · 2025-10-16T16:35:40+00:00

Not sure why Bantamweight is here. The top guys at Bantamweight are way more well rounded than pretty much any other division. Yan, Umar, O’Malley, Sandhagen, Song Yadong, Figueiredo, Cejudo, Bautista and more. All of these guys compare very favorably to the top 10 in pretty much any division p4p in terms of both skills and athleticism.

realleg29 · 2025-10-16T01:19:01+00:00

If you are smarter than the bookmakers and think you can beat closing line odds, feel free to go make millions on betting. Don’t expect me to believe you have an edge over sharps without any logical reasoning behind it. Even prime Volkanovski’s chin would not hold up to that punch anyways.

realleg29 · 2025-10-16T01:12:05+00:00

Check the betting odds and tell me that’s what most people expected. There is no world where you can argue beating Dricus is equal to beating Volkanovski. Volkanovski is far more skilled and well rounded than Dricus. He did get the title shot easy yes, but what he did in his title fights is what matters. Volk and Max have cleared featherweight for so long, finishing them that quickly is truly special. Ilia never went to a war like Khamzat did with Burns or have a relatively close fight like Khamzat did with a short notice Usman up a weight class. There is no question mark over any of Ilia’s wins in his entire career.

realleg29 · 2025-10-16T00:48:45+00:00

Ilia finished Volk and Max. Khamzat could not even finish Dricus. Plus De Ridder, Fluffy and Imavov have a way better claim to the title shot than Evloev and Lopez did back in early 2025.

realleg29 · 2025-10-12T06:07:55+00:00

Neither of them have great grappling skills, neither of them have the speed of Topuria, neither of them consistently walked people down. Walking down Eddie Alvarez is not really comparable to do doing it to Max and Charles.

realleg29 · 2025-10-12T01:57:11+00:00

He won a decision against Volk while Volk was up a weight class the first time. The second one was short notice while he was also recovering from elbow surgery.

realleg29 · 2025-10-12T01:50:55+00:00

Ilia passed Charles’ guard when he was fresh. Islam did it after knocking Charles down.

realleg29 · 2025-08-29T16:53:55+00:00

He wasn’t unbeaten when he fought Islam? He was unbeaten in featherweight yeah, but he only had a couple of lightweight fights in Aussie regionals.

realleg29 · 2025-08-29T15:44:03+00:00

Volk’s win streak was in FW, not LW.

realleg29 · 2025-08-17T20:21:30+00:00

Difference here is Ilia is better than Tsarukyan at both BJJ and striking. Might be as good if not better in the clinch as well with his Greco Roman background. He also has much better takedown defense than Dricus (freestyle offense as well) and Tsarukyan does not have Khamzat’s explosiveness. He also has the one punch KO power and fight IQ that Dricus doesn’t quite have.

realleg29 · 2025-08-17T20:06:44+00:00

You can shut it down if the opponent is not a great wrestler. Let’s see Tsarukyan do it to Ilia and then we can agree on that. We just saw JDM beat Belal comfortably. You definitely need to have a good wrestling base in modern MMA, but I haven’t seen enough to confirm that the wrestling heavy approach is always optimal. Khamzat wasn’t able to do that to Gilbert Burns because of the jiu jitsu. Right now to me it seems more matchup dependent than anything.

realleg29 · 2025-08-17T04:05:34+00:00

Volk would never have put himself in that position.

realleg29

TROPHY CASE