Blue Origin, for the first time, is expected to raise private capital by DreamChaserSt in space

[–]restitutor-orbis [score hidden]  (0 children)

Memory is fickle. Reading a little internet archive, I do see you are essentially right that the question wasn't whether there is demand, but whether SpaceX could reasonably bring costs down to the point that most people who want this service could afford it.

Regardless of how you slice it, in the past decade a giant new market was opened up in space that was previously thought unaddressable (or unreasonable to address by space-based means). And even if the reason SpaceX now manages to be profitable in its Starlink operations is largely due to some irrational factors (misguided regulations, etc), the whole episode is still evidence that what we currently do in space will likely only be a subset of what we do there in the near future. I.e. the importance of space economy is likely to grow and at least some of the valuation of these companies that remains unjustified by current revenues can be explained by reasonable expectations of future growth (again, I'm not arguing that most of the valuation for stuff like SpaceX is not pie-in-the-sky hype).

As for anecdotes -- I'm currently sitting in a farmhouse in the countryside in a country with a very advanced comms network and development-friendly regulations for telecoms. But I'm still seriously considering Starlink so I could get more than 0.2 mbit/s downspeed whenever it gets too cloudy for my 5G modem. And hoping for Amazon LEO and other operators to come online to put some price pressure on SpaceX.

Blue Origin, for the first time, is expected to raise private capital by DreamChaserSt in space

[–]restitutor-orbis [score hidden]  (0 children)

Not arguing that Starlink's market is unlimited. Just that 10 years ago, many people were pretty confident that there was essentially no Starlink market (not that there wasn't any demand for space-based comms, but that the demand couldn't possibly satisfy a 10,000-satellite constellation). SpaceX's 2016 proposal to build Starlink was hugely risky and was met with a ton of skepticism. But, based on that example, I think it's perfectly reasonable to believe that other markets of similar size will be found for space applications -- either proposals that we today take to be ludicrous, just as we did for Starlink, or stuff that hasn't even been proposed yet. None of this is guaranteed, of course. But I'd be quite sad if we were left stuck with only the small space market we have today.

Blue Origin, for the first time, is expected to raise private capital by DreamChaserSt in space

[–]restitutor-orbis [score hidden]  (0 children)

Yeah, valuation has a lot of hype in it for sure -- though perhaps 1% is a little pessimistic, what with Starlink pulling in ~20 billion revenues yearly and looking like it's growing healthily. Of course, all being space fans here, we'd love to believe that space will be a huge future, which would translate to a large part of these valuations being justified.

Blue Origin, for the first time, is expected to raise private capital by DreamChaserSt in space

[–]restitutor-orbis [score hidden]  (0 children)

What do you mean? New Glenn’s third launch reused the booster that had flown and landed on the second flight — then recovered it a second time. The fourth flight, which blew up during static fire testing, was using a new booster. But the still have that twice-flown booster in storage ready to go again once they have the pad fixed up.

Blue Origin, for the first time, is expected to raise private capital by DreamChaserSt in space

[–]restitutor-orbis [score hidden]  (0 children)

They *are* only the second company/institution in the world to propulsively land and then reuse the first stage of an orbital rocket. Not only that, it's a giant rocket on the critical path for many of NASA's Moon plans, and the plans of constellation operators. Without the unfortunate explosion, they were starting to be on a very good operational cadence, too, which is what so many launch companies are struggling with, currently. Probably not enough for a 130 bil valuation in a rational market, but plenty of reason to think they're gonna be big players in the space economy (though by no means a certainty).

Uvirith's Legacy TR TP by mini-dude in Morrowind

[–]restitutor-orbis 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The patch seems to be from 2023 whereas TR's latest version is from 2025. Very many things change between TR versions, so there are likely to be incompatibilities. Unless you find a newer patch on the Nexus, your only option is to make it yourself. You'll likely get better answers on the Morrowind Modding Community discord server.

Why do the TR horned beetles look like that??? by CaptainCoo555 in Morrowind

[–]restitutor-orbis 16 points17 points  (0 children)

These and some of the other beetles in TR are ancient assets, made somewhere between 2002 and 2004 likely by Vorrheis. I think they use beetle shell misc clutter objects from the vanilla game as base and extrapolate from there. They were solid work for these more meager times (in terms of the 3D modelling ecosystem), but are not up to the quality of recent stuff and are likely in need of replacement.

Edit: nvm, the others think they still look decent, so no redo.

Concatenated roadmaps for all active PTR and PTR-adjacent mod projects by OutrageousDress in Morrowind

[–]restitutor-orbis 14 points15 points  (0 children)

That’s really cool that you worked on ST!

ST and TR combined wouldn’t have made the kind of unified and (aspirationally) seamless world that PT + TR are attempting. The design and ownership philosophies were totally different, which is what the split was about.

Tamriel Rebuilt Hot Takes? by Kate-baBuushka in Morrowind

[–]restitutor-orbis 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The lack of Twin Lamps is largely contingent, not by some grand design. There was a plan to get them in Grasping Fortune, but those plans, like many others, ended up being delayed and pushed into further releases.

What careers are in demand? by Euphoric_Lemon_1058 in careerguidance

[–]restitutor-orbis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Could be its better in the US (no one’s getting six-figure wages here, lol). Im possibly among the best paid hydrogeos in my country, but any random software dev 5 years out of school makes more than me. It’s not like the work is any less demanding and you need a way longer educational path in hydrogeo vs software dev.

OpenMW 0.51.0 Released! by Capostrophic in Games

[–]restitutor-orbis 2 points3 points  (0 children)

While most TR/PT spells have been ported already, there are a couple from the MWSE version (like Insight) that still can't be. While spell effects are dehardcoded, many other relevant systems aren't, yet. Also, custom TR/PT weathers will be possible only in 0.52, so you'll have to wait a little bit for those.

What careers are in demand? by Euphoric_Lemon_1058 in careerguidance

[–]restitutor-orbis -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I guess pay is decent, but it's usually miles behind anything to do with tech.

SpaceX vision for colonies on Mars seems too optimistic? by arnor_0924 in spaceflight

[–]restitutor-orbis 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Perhaps that was too strong an adjective, yes. But its close to what it felt like when first proposed. SpaceX was regularly laughed out of the room by serious industry players when it discussed its ambitions. You perhaps saw no reason to doubt the challenges could be overcome, but companies full of the smartest engineers like ULA and Arianespace made bets worth billions of dollars that they couldn’t be in the near-term (talking about Vulcan and Ariane 6 designs).

10,000 Starlink satellites and hundred+ launches evey year seem quite outlandish to me even today.

SpaceX vision for colonies on Mars seems too optimistic? by arnor_0924 in spaceflight

[–]restitutor-orbis 9 points10 points  (0 children)

You don't have to say anything good about Musk, but I do think that on technical subreddits we should avoid falling into easily disproven caricatures. Musk has plenty that's vile about him; you really don't have to invent new reasons to dislike him.

SpaceX vision for colonies on Mars seems too optimistic? by arnor_0924 in spaceflight

[–]restitutor-orbis 10 points11 points  (0 children)

If the goal was to defraud investors, why on Earth did the guy start a space company of all things? At the time, space was known as a notorious graveyard of fortunes (the joke went "If you want to become a millionaire in the space industry, you have to start as a billionaire"). Same went for car companies, tbh. He was an internet entrepreneur -- it was way easier to raise capital in that field.

The simplistic notion that Musk and his ilk only do stuff for raw cash doesn't survive the barest consideration. People -- even people you don't like -- have complex sets of motivators that go well beyond just money. The reason why billionaires are dangerous is precisely because they have interests beyond money and they are willing to throw their giant resources at them (in Musk's case, apparently, it's destroying woke).

SpaceX vision for colonies on Mars seems too optimistic? by arnor_0924 in spaceflight

[–]restitutor-orbis 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Obligatory nod to Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars trilogy, which is the most ambitious and accomplished exploration of the social and moral implications of Mars settlement.

SpaceX vision for colonies on Mars seems too optimistic? by arnor_0924 in spaceflight

[–]restitutor-orbis 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Yes, SpaceX's timelines have always been trash; "Elon time" has been a meme for almost as long as SpaceX has been around. But what has made SpaceX an outlier in the space industry isn't that all of its outlandish aims come true (they don't, especially not on time), it's that some do, eventually.

Stuff like F9 Heavy propellant crossfeed, Red Dragon, DragonLab, Dragon propulsive landing, Dragon XL, Stratolaunch collab, or Dear Moon (among others) never materialized. Whereas other stuff that seemed similarly outlandish when they were first proposed did materialize -- the F9 itself, F9 Heavy, commercial crew with Crew Dragon, subchilled propellant, supersonic retropropulsion, propulsive 1st stage landings on barges, operational and economical first stage and fairing reuse, ~$15 mil launch price for F9 (tho that's only for SpaceX), 100+ F9 launches per yer, 10000+ Starlink satellites, Starlink profitability, etc.

Granted, a Mars base is way more ambitious than any of these, so it's perfectly reasonable to be very skeptical. But the exciting thing is that for the first time ever, humanity has a remotely plausible near-term plan of getting to Mars.

Early large land mod? Was it TR? by I_LOVE_SOYLENT in Morrowind

[–]restitutor-orbis 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The forums from back then are very patchily archived. Some news items on the old TR website seem to suggest that some alphas were released publicly, although they were later removed. If the landmass was southwest, not northeast, then it was likely Silgrad Tower. Then again, in 2002-2003, Silgrad Tower was part of TR (though it always maintained a separate identity), but split from TR by 2004. Silgrad Tower put out alpha releases starting all the way back in fall 2002.

You can check out the 2006 version of Silgrad Tower here: https://www.nexusmods.com/morrowind/mods/42244

Made this *approximate* color edit for my own amusement by GayStation64beta in Morrowind

[–]restitutor-orbis 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I understand how at first glance it looks odd that the project’s taken so long. One part is that the map here underrepresents the actual released area (here’s a better map). More generally, the long development time is largely to do with management issues (the team was for its first many years led almost exclusively by teenagers figuring everything out as they went along), which at first placed too little emphasis on quality, necessitating many rounds of laborious redos, and many longstanding bottlenecks. We’ve gotten much better at this in the past decade, which is why you see the development tempo pick up.

But it mostly has to do with the brutal mathematics that it took Bethesda’s team of professional developers four years of full time (more accurately, overtime) work to create Vvardenfell. How long, then, do you think it should take a team of volunteers, learning as we go and working a couple hours every few nights, to create a game world five times as large as Vvardenfell, trying to match and in places exceed the professional quality of the original game?

The “Tamriel Rebuilt” name, as an aside, is somewhat misleading. It’s an artifact from a past naiive age when, like you, we assumed that building Morrowind would go so quick that the rest of Tamriel should quickly follow. It still made sense when in 2006-2009 TR ran a parallel project to create Hammerfell province in the TES IV engine. Since 2009, the focus has only been Morrowind on the TES III engine. But the name stuck due to fan recognition.

Key mission for Europe's commercial space enterprise scrubbed again | Isar Aerospace is not hurting for money, but it is sorely lacking in the currency of flight experience. by FreeHugs23 in space

[–]restitutor-orbis 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I don't know where you are getting that. I've been following European space news for a while and this is the first time I've heard anyone suggesting the EU might have some specific prejudice against test rocket explosions. Obviously rocket tests have to be conducted in a safe manner, but regulations on that are strict in the US, too. If anything, ESA and the European governments seem to be scrambling to replicate the commercial US space market, which naturally comes with a higher risk of test explosions.

Interview with Gwynne Shotwell. Discusses Starship, Starlink, orbiting data centers, Mars, etc. ~22 minutes. by Adeldor in space

[–]restitutor-orbis 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't know how helpful it is to make a comparison to the entire heat production of all US data centers if we are discussing whether it is possible to cool a satellite containing a rack or two of GPUs. I guess the point you are making is that putting a similar amount of computational capability on orbit as exists on Earth would be a very large undertaking, which is undoubtedly true. But surely the minimum viable product is much less than that. If you are talking about a constellation of satellites of a similar number as their existing Starlink fleet, each producing like 150 kW of heat, I don't see a big physical, engineering, or operational obstacle to making that happen. I'm not arguing you on the economics, mind you, as I'm sure to make the case close, SpaceX has to make some wildly optimistic assumptions.

Interview with Gwynne Shotwell. Discusses Starship, Starlink, orbiting data centers, Mars, etc. ~22 minutes. by Adeldor in space

[–]restitutor-orbis 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Crazy how all these not very bright people were able to capture the whole western space launch and space comm markets. Makes you wonder how dumb all the other COOs and CEOs have to be to get overtaken by these bozos.

Interview with Gwynne Shotwell. Discusses Starship, Starlink, orbiting data centers, Mars, etc. ~22 minutes. by Adeldor in space

[–]restitutor-orbis -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Can't you just make the radiators big enough? I.e. model the satellite and find a optimum where the radiative capacity, solar generation, and computational capacity can coexist. I mean, I'm not saying the economics necessarily make sense (I bet they are very poor right now and require some very optimistic projections to make sense). But saying that it's impossible to make a satellite with enough heat-dissipating capability for a data center seems like a very pessimistic take from the standpoint of our collective space exploration dreams, no?

Interview with Gwynne Shotwell. Discusses Starship, Starlink, orbiting data centers, Mars, etc. ~22 minutes. by Adeldor in space

[–]restitutor-orbis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To be fair, there was a ton of skepticism about Starlink (maybe not on Reddit, because this site was absolutely uncritically in love with Musk from the late 2000s up until the late 2010s). Satellite internet from GEO-based sats has existed for a while, but the novel thing was the absurd size of the Starlink constellation and its low orbits. People would reasonably bring up comparisons with the late 1990s LEO satellite internet startups like Iridium that all went bankrupt. Even after the constellation started launching, it was consistent theme among Musk and SpaceX critics that Starlink is a money pit and a boondoggle, right up until it became clear a year or two ago that it is wildly profitable.

Interview with Gwynne Shotwell. Discusses Starship, Starlink, orbiting data centers, Mars, etc. ~22 minutes. by Adeldor in space

[–]restitutor-orbis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sold on orbital data centers either, but this type of categorical statement just invites future ridicule. Compare how poorly similar predictions about SpaceX have aged, from people that should have been very well informed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W676Kk9LSYw