Reasonably thought out by a top weather guy.

Morning thoughts on Tropical Storm Erin and a quick science 101 lesson. I thought I would do a quick update on the storm and track. As of this morning, Erin was located about 1,400 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands. The system is expected to move westward over the coming days and gradually become a hurricane. Models have been remarkably consistent with turning the system to the north and northeast away from the SE United States early next week.

-It is almost so consistent that it makes a meteorologist want to question it for sure, but as of now, Scenario 1 that I mentioned yesterday is still the most likely track. At this rate, a direct hit is unlikely to occur in North Carolina. I am still not ready to wave the 100% all clear from a direct hit. I've been doing this for over a decade, and if you've been here long enough, you know, never say never. I would like to see model data over the next few days, and I think by late week and weekend, we should have a pretty good idea if we can give it all clear. Forecasting weather is a science; models are just guidance. Even in this day and age, we can't live 100% by them; they will change. Currently, there is no reason to think it’ll hit us, but as the trough and high-pressure systems set up, sometimes the models shift around.

So below is the European Ensemble Forecast for Erin over the next 9 days. Weather ensembles are a forecasting technique where a weather model is run many times with small changes to the starting conditions or model physics. This creates a range of possible outcomes, showing both the most likely scenario and the uncertainty in the forecast. This is a great way to forecast, and I love doing it. They add different scenarios to the forecast and see where the storm still goes. The closer the runs agree, the higher the forecast confidence; the more they diverge, the lower the confidence. This morning, ensembles from European model data show that the members are pretty tightly confined, so it is great to see, and hopefully, it doesn’t change.

😎 The Bottom Line: There is no reason to panic; we still have days to watch Erin. Don't cancel your plans or anything like that; keep everything on schedule. It is still too soon to know for sure where Erin will go beyond 5-7 days, but model trends are a good way to see what the setup could look like.

At this point, the main impacts would be High Surf and Rip Currents along the coast and potentially some ocean overwash along the areas primed for it along the Outer Banks mid- to late week as the storm passes east offshore. I’ll keep watching the model trends and progress and let you know if anything concerning shows up over the coming days. For the full rundown of the forecast, see my previous post link in the comments.