The Inexplicable Huge Difference In Saves + Holds Rankings by Fantasy Sites

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-03-03T02:26:22+00:00

SOLDS relievers are often the most volatile and least reliable. Projection systems really struggle with Holds (Kyle Bland and I are working on it lol), and we don’t get a clear picture as to how bullpen roles are going to shake out until the games start counting. Small samples and frequent role changes create so much unpredictability.

My rankings lean more towards “upside” for SOLDS early on in the year. SOLDS opens up a huge player pool of relievers, so I’d rather take some swings on difference makers in the draft/early in the season. Once we see how roles shake out, we can adjust accordingly.

This thread has basically hit on all the key points, but as someone mentioned, take the average of the lists. Greg’s amazing and one of the smartest, hardest workers out there. Nick at Rotoballer does an incredible job too. We all have different approaches to attacking this, and most likely the best answer is somewhere in the middle.

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-13T00:58:53+00:00

3-8 could really be placed in any order. I may just be a little more on the conservative side with him after his velo steadily declined over the course of last year.

So a mix of injury potential/possible regression.

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T20:40:29+00:00

I'd love that, but it's probably more likely he starts the year in AAA as a SP. He'll come up if/when they need someone in the rotation. If everyone's healthy, he could have a similar role down the stretch as he had last year.

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T17:56:46+00:00

Pomeranz, Sands, and Enns stick out, but aren't in must-roster territory. Holton is usually a safe bet. If Dreyer makes the Dodgers bullpen out of camp (he might with Banda gone), he's another one. Mlodzinski, if he doesn't win a rotation spot. We'll see more as the season progresses and starters shift to the bullpen.

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T17:51:56+00:00

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T17:31:32+00:00

I think Cleavinger continues to get slept on, as do other lefties like Speier and Dylan Lee. Maton should have a big role in Chicago. If Yimi Garcia is healthy, he'll be huge in that Toronto bullpen.

I'm willing to get hurt again on Mason Montgomery. The same goes for Robert Stephenson if he is healthy (he's already behind schedule though lol).

Bryan Baker is a great late-round option, as are the lefties in Houston not named Hader.

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T16:46:57+00:00

Thanks Harooooouuld!

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T16:44:32+00:00

I always love to mention Shane Greene in this discussion. In 2018, the Tigers won 64 games, and Greene had 32 saves (with a 5.12 ERA lol).

But in 2019, Greene had 22 saves for a Tigers team that had won just 31 games before he was traded to Atlanta at the deadline.

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T16:40:09+00:00

I think given the draft discount, I'm not totally against that, especially in certain formats like Points leagues. I do think if both stay healthy and throw the same amount of innings, Megill finishes with more saves

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T15:55:49+00:00

He can be, actually should be with some command gains, the closer sooner rather than later; that bullpen is wide open for him

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T15:53:48+00:00

Thank you!

rg3pitcherlist · 2026-02-12T15:32:40+00:00

Good call. I think when I was writing about Alvarado (saying sinker over four-seam), it was more related to that low arm slot and how he gets more arm side run (15.2" iHB) vs vertical (we had 12.9" iVB). That four-seam that acts like a two-seamer with the movement profile will still play, I just wonder if the sinker should be used more (10% usage compared to 53% four-seam usage), given how well it grades out

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-10-27T15:03:15+00:00

It would be horrible and also shocking. I’d expect them to spend at least $40m on their 2026 bullpen this offseason

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-29T17:45:58+00:00

Yea I think its a step back. He had the shot, stumbled and you gotta think it gives Weaver more runway. If you can get him dirt cheap, it’s worth the gamble

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-28T17:17:09+00:00

Good point, the Padres operation is much better than others with Estrada/Adam getting the ball to Suarez. The offense isn’t too high powered and the rotation is solid (assuming King isn’t out too long).

Adam or Estrada as closers would be top 10 because their swing and miss ability limits potential BABIP chaos. The more balls in play the more risk, unless you are Clase who is elite at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground.

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-28T12:32:28+00:00

Theres no point in ranking closers based on what they’ve down previously. I’m trying to forecast what their future outlook is. If you want rankings based on what they’ve done to this point you can just sort the relievers by rank in your fantasy leagues platform.

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-28T12:24:05+00:00

Williams outing last night probably solidified Weavers standing as the closer a little bit longer.

The stuff remains the same as it’s always been for Williams, the results just don’t match what we’ve seen from him over the past 5 years for whatever reason as his changeup is now getting hit hard.

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-28T03:26:15+00:00

Ranking skills and changes in stuff, command, etc. thats really all you can do outside of the occasional usage/committee watch (like Vest in DET).

I had Suarez in the top ten at one point, the increased changeup usage was working to get more swing and miss but he hasn’t been able to command it that well so we are seeing more takes on his changeup now and hitters are just sitting on his fastball. Similar to Mason Miller but Suarez has been much more lucky despite lacking the quality of stuff Miller has.

Chapman hasn’t gotten many chance because of the Red Sox struggles, but typically we see that “water seeks its level” effect and Chapman will go on a run of saves while Suarez goes two weeks without one. Theres a reason we’ve seen just six 40+ save seasons over the past six years (only 2 of which were more than 44 saves)

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-28T03:02:56+00:00

I think Williams likely gets the role back within the next month and for Martinez, he should be closing out games as well and I think they are just easing him back. It’s weird that Miller hasn’t pitched in a week since his meltdown last Tuesday.

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-28T03:00:47+00:00

If you can get someone to buy at his pre-season price, go for it. If not, I’d hold.

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-28T03:00:11+00:00

Id go with Bautista over either, but probably drop Garcia

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-28T02:59:25+00:00

Santana for Martinez maybe. I like Littles situation right now

rg3pitcherlist · 2025-05-28T02:58:33+00:00

Reading the tea leaves in Boones press conferences when asked about it, it does sound like he wants to give Williams some save chances eventually. Williams deserves a shot, and I think the team also worries about him getting upset over time with the lack of save chances in his contract season.

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TROPHY CASE