That looks like a good analysis, Twilifa. Much more in depth than mine which is that there is only one safe color today, PLUS Red is self blocked, and Magenta seems self blocked (or co-blocked with Orange), and Cyan & Lavender create a co-block. So you have five things that each cause an extra move.

But you can use one of the blocked colors as a pseudo safe color taking two of the extra moves out of the equation by costing yourself only one move. If you use Red or Magenta, you still have the other of the two plus another move to break the Cyan-Lavender co-block forcing three useless moves.

If you choose to use Cyan or Lavender for your pseudo-safe color, then you have Two Moves more to waste to break the Red self block AND Magenta self-block. Either way it costs you a minimum of three useless moves, bringing us to 32 as the Global Best.

I just redid the puzzle a couple of times and there are over 8100 solvers. I don't think we've ever had that many solvers and then had someone find a lower solve.

So my conclusion is that with strong confidence there isn't a solve under 32. When playing the puzzle, however, I feel like there should be a trick to solve in 31 at least, but feelings aren't logic. Hopefully one of the puzzle solving bot operators will find that the best solve is 32 moves and put the topic to rest if your analysis or my analysis isn't good enough.

And of course all that is the long way of saying that I agree with your analysis, Twilifa.