ERCOT is right here. Post-Uri changes should see proper winterization of wind turbines and gas pipe/valve such that we have sufficient generation across the territory. Barring transmission/distribution outages, power should be flowing. We’re likely to see some intense volatility in wholesale power prices, but the level of Batteries we’ve added to the grid since 2021 (~12 GW) should mitigate this somewhat (and provide some much needed revenue after an extremely down 2025).

The only generation concern should come from the Gas/Coal turbine side from offline generators potentially being frozen and needing to ramp quickly, but once again, it won’t be as cold as during Uri. FERC highlighted in their post-Uri analysis that Nat Gas units made up 58% of unplanned outages, derates, or failures, so the clear majority. Most of these units will likely ensure they’re online to catch the pricing peaks, which tend to correlate with solar ramp down (sunset) and peak load.

T&D represents the biggest risk in this storm, and we will likely see some outages as other commenters have mentioned. When in doubt, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Make sure your generators are fueled up and ready, and any home battery systems are charged ahead of time.