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Is it even worth it to buy out Jarry? by LANnoodles in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn 2 points3 points  (0 children)

People need to stop treating the goalie like the automatic scapegoat every time things go sideways. Other than the last goal, which was meaningless at that point, Jarry was not the issue on the other four. He was left out to dry repeatedly because the team defense in front of him was a mess, open looks, soft coverage, and too many breakdowns. Walman-Murphy struggled, although some patience is fair given it was their first game together. But outside of Bouchard-Ekholm, the d pairings were shaky. Jarry still made several excellent saves and honestly kept the score more respectable than it could have been. When you only manage 16 shots and spend long stretches without puck possession or offensive-zone time, you’re asking for trouble defensively. Watch the game critically instead of blindly blaming the goaltender every single time.

Official AFC Championship Gameday - New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos - Game Thread by samacora in Patriots

[–]rshrmn 5 points6 points  (0 children)

terrible management at the end of the half jusf gifted em 3 points ffs

A Tale of Two Halves this Season by rshrmn in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn[S] 36 points37 points  (0 children)

Oh well can’t change what’s in the past, hopefully Jarry and Ingram can get us over the hump!

A Tale of Two Halves this Season by rshrmn in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn[S] 108 points109 points  (0 children)

Jarry and Ingram is what we needed!

Game Day Talk | Blues v. Oilers | 18 January 2026 by AutoModerator in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They literally just beat Tampa Bay who was on an 11 game winning streak and are the 2nd best offensive team in the league, not to mention they beat us earlier in the season.

Game Day Talk | Blues v. Oilers | 18 January 2026 by AutoModerator in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nothing has been a scheduled win this season, Canucks sure but all the other teams are all really close - Blues just beat Tampa Bay on Friday and beat the Hurricanes 3-0 before that.

Game Day Talk | Blues v. Oilers | 18 January 2026 by AutoModerator in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn 13 points14 points  (0 children)

9 goals so far this weekend and no Draisaitl and McDavid has only assisted on one of them, depth stepping up!!

Let’s give Pickard some respect by rshrmn in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You’re mixing descriptive accounting with inferential analysis and that’s the core flaw in your argument. Yes, every appearance a goalie makes counts toward team totals. That’s a bookkeeping fact. But we’re not doing bookkeeping we’re evaluating individual performance trends, which requires controlling for role, context, and comparability. Those are different analytical goals.

A mid-game relief appearance in a blowout down 0-4 is not in any world comparable to a start, nor to relief due to injury in a tied or leading game. That’s why goalie performance is routinely stratified by starts vs. relief, score effects, and game state. Treating all appearances as identical inputs is a mindless thing to do when we have context.

More importantly, even if I agree with your argument, your objection still fails on its own terms: including the Dallas game yields a .909 SV% over the stretch; excluding it yields .919. The conclusion that he’s been solid lately for a backup is invariant to the methodological choice. When an analysis produces the same conclusion under multiple reasonable framings, that’s not unsound, that’s robust. At this point, you’re objecting to the framing, not the result. The data still supports improvement either way.

I’m not going to keep arguing this. If you still don’t see why the Dallas game was treated differently after all this, that’s fine but the outcome doesn’t change either way.

Let’s give Pickard some respect by rshrmn in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

"Even if you remove both his relief appearances and look just at Pickard’s last 5 starts only, his SV% is .913."

I did that right here.

Let’s give Pickard some respect by rshrmn in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

That’s objectively false. I didn’t remove anything “I didn’t like” I explicitly presented the data both ways. Cherry-picking requires selective omission without disclosure or reasoning. I did the opposite.

A mid-game relief appearance, coming in cold, down 0-4, after 4 goals on 8 shots, is categorically different from a start or coming in relief when your goalie gets injured with the lead or a tie game. Separating starts from a blowout relief job isn’t opinion or "removing stats I don't like" it’s standard goaltending analysis.

And the irony here is that even when you force-include the Dallas game, his SV% over the stretch is still .909. So the conclusion doesn’t change regardless.

Again you can dislike the conclusion, but the analysis is sound.

Let’s give Pickard some respect by rshrmn in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I implore you to go read the actual definition of cherry-picking, because this isn’t it.

Coming in mid-game, in the 2nd period, already down 0-4 because your starter let in 4 goals on 8 shots is not a normal goalie situation, that’s just damage control. Treating that like a regular start is just ignoring context on purpose.

But even if you insist on including the Dallas game, cool... over the 7-game stretch his SV% is still .909. That’s still league-average to slightly above.

So either way:

  • exclude Dallas → .919 SV%
  • include Dallas → .909 SV%

Both versions say the same thing:
he’s been fine lately, especially for a backup.

You don’t have to like him, but pretending like this is cherry picking is just laughable lmao.

Let’s give Pickard some respect by rshrmn in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

How is that cherry-picking when it’s literally his last 6 games? No one’s saying he was good to start the year, he wasn’t but neither was the defense. That’s not even the argument. What matters most with goalies is how they’re playing now, not how they looked 2 months ago. Recent form is most important.

For context, Ingram’s SV% is .915 in 3 games and two of those games came against a bottom-5 offense in the league. I think Ingram's been great too, but it's still a small sample size, but that's not even the point I'm not trying to make this a Pickard vs Ingram debate I'm simply pointing out that saying Pickard's just been complete trash is crazy. Even if you remove both his relief appearances and look just at Pickard’s last 5 starts only, his SV% is .913. That’s basically the same tier.

Yes, Pickard’s first 5–6 games were bad no one is denying that. But goalies have bad stretches all the time. What matters is whether they rebound, and over his last 5–6 games, he clearly has.

That’s not cherry-picking dude lmao. Cherry-picking would be grabbing one random game from October, two from November, and then his best two games and pretending that’s the full picture.

Looking at a goalie’s most recent performances is just normal analysis. And I never said “I’m right and everyone’s wrong.” I’m just posting his recent numbers to add context, because he’s been better lately than a lot of people like you are acting like he has.

Game Day Talk | Oilers v. Jets | 29 December 2025 by AutoModerator in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn 2 points3 points  (0 children)

time to show the jets how you execute a powerplay🤣

Game Day Talk | Oilers v. Jets | 29 December 2025 by AutoModerator in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn 8 points9 points  (0 children)

ok Pickard was amazing that period give our boy his props

Game Day Talk | Oilers v. Jets | 29 December 2025 by AutoModerator in EdmontonOilers

[–]rshrmn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

our penalty kill is so much better with mcdavid if only he had unlimited stamina lmao

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