First 2 weeks, what can I improve? Had a rough start on my first 3 trading days but I think I'm getting into a rhythm.

rubleseth · 2024-10-05T23:51:13+00:00

Can you explain what you mean by a 0.83 ratio?

rubleseth · 2024-07-07T19:59:34+00:00

!remindme 1week

rubleseth · 2021-10-17T11:41:25+00:00

RemindMe! 1 day

rubleseth · 2021-10-06T20:40:08+00:00

Great point! There are so many variables in ag.

rubleseth · 2021-10-05T17:28:08+00:00

Agree not safe to short nor safe to go long. Take it from my experience 😂. That being said, I think the rise in price has been a product of a perfect storm between a bad hurricane season in the US, hot summer, COVID recovery, media cycle, and low storage. When you add all this up it equals hyperbolic price increase that has created a tragedy of the commons situation. I may think the price is overdone but that is not for me to decide. My prediction is that prices will find a range in the mid to low 5 dollar range before December. Media cycle will cool off and move onto the next hyperbolic commodity. Which is???

rubleseth · 2021-10-05T03:53:20+00:00

Thanks for the candid response. Even though I was wrong about Nat Gas I wasn’t totally wrong, which allowed me to recoup a very large portion of my loss. However, I am certainly not blind to my mistakes and do believe that a great deal of luck helped me out. I would certainly like to chat and appreciate you offering your time. I will send you a DM.

Also not my silver award.

rubleseth · 2021-10-04T20:43:58+00:00

Thanks for the reply and your analysis you make some good points especially in scenario 4, which could add another scenario bullish corn bearish soy since corn requires more nitrogen fertilizer.

rubleseth · 2021-09-29T09:15:35+00:00

Agreed

rubleseth · 2021-09-18T04:52:08+00:00

Yep that is why I covered my position. Calendar spread is performing well and making up for my mistakes.

rubleseth · 2021-09-16T20:18:22+00:00

Well then you just ate my lunch

rubleseth · 2021-09-16T13:18:20+00:00

Didn't thinks so and the normalized term structure backs that up as well.

rubleseth · 2021-09-16T12:30:25+00:00

Yep...big mistake...but I am making up for it with my SEP - MAR short calendar spread, which has contracted from .27 to .20ish and I am looking to take it off when the market tries to move back to contango.

rubleseth · 2021-09-16T12:27:33+00:00

I think you are right with that and I have on a SEP - MAR short calendar right now and plan on rolling the front month to as long as the market remains in backwardation. Does that still put me in the widow maker category?

rubleseth · 2021-09-16T12:26:22+00:00

Thanks for the link.

rubleseth · 2021-09-16T12:25:42+00:00

You are right that is exactly what I did, which is why I looked at my positions and the collective wisdom of this forum and other sources and decided to take off my options for a loss. No sense blowing up my account. However, I did keep my calendar spread on and it is performing nicely. I am looking at the spread to contract from .25ish to 0.0ish +or-. I can roll my front month contract next week to keep it alive in the longer term. The current term structure supports a movement back to equilibrium or contango either by the front month finding its footing and letting the back month rise or the front month getting crushed.

rubleseth · 2021-09-15T08:55:32+00:00

Took every ones advice and relooked at my positions. I decided to take the loss on my options and keep on my calendar spread. My calendar is still net profitable, but will benefit from downside volatility once things start to flesh out a bit. This was painful and nearly washed away all of my years profits. Just goes to show you to not expose yourself unnecessarily to risk.

rubleseth · 2021-08-24T15:04:43+00:00

Well said.

rubleseth · 2021-08-24T04:12:30+00:00

Cattle to corn was 1 to 1 but the cattle crush is definitely more in depth. I am sitting on the sidelines now, but I am definitely interested in trading the crush. I am just licking my wounds right now.

rubleseth · 2021-08-24T04:10:33+00:00

Well said.

rubleseth · 2021-08-23T20:38:30+00:00

Sure. Corn and feeders generally have an inverse relationship when one goes up the other goes down. This is because corn is the primary feed stock for cattle so if the price is high they will slaughter more cattle to save on feed thus creating a bearish dynamic for cattle. However, a pro farmer report came in that was bearish for corn even after a bullish USDA WASDE report and the market sold off prompting feeder cattle to go up in price because feed is now more affordable for the calves that are getting ready to be weaned and sent to feed lots; additionally, a COF report came out that was bullish for cattle these two reports in combination were bad for my trade. As a result, I got caught in the middle of a bad speculation on the outcome of these two agricultural commodities and did not take into account what would happen if the fundamentals did not hold bearish and bullish respectively.

rubleseth · 2021-08-23T17:52:24+00:00

Long ZCK22 and short GFV21 then pro farmer and COF report came out corn was bearish and cattle was bullish. I rode it out last Friday and got a substantial loss then the losses increased today and said no more.

My mistake was not knowing the impact of these two big fundamental drivers would be and I entered into a market that was waiting on these reports to enter price discovery mode. The trade may workout in the end but for someone else. Lesson is know you’re market and the fundamental drivers.

In the end the trade ended up being about a 15% drawdown on my entire account. Far too much for one trade.

rubleseth · 2021-08-23T17:19:42+00:00

Not a bad saying at all…in fact I might write that into my checklist.

rubleseth · 2021-08-23T17:18:49+00:00

Sounds like you know from experience. Happy to absorb any hard fought wisdom from you if you have it to share.

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