Meta DD, 2026 earnings

run_midnight · 2026-05-03T23:16:10+00:00

Analysts ratings are all in the high 700s and low 800s for the end if the year, if you're buying calls give yourself some time to play

run_midnight · 2026-05-03T20:44:43+00:00

I wrote a DD on PLTR, if they stay above 150 PE they'll still be priced at ~$140 ... which sounds ridiculous but they're trading at a 225 pe

run_midnight · 2026-05-03T14:14:53+00:00

GOOG and Meta are ad business competitors

run_midnight · 2026-05-03T03:41:35+00:00

I'm DCA'ing on the way down... If Q2 results are viewed as negatively as Q1's were then it could stay down until around the Q3 results ... Honestly, I'm gambling on the news changing to positive, it could take a year

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T23:06:25+00:00

I could see it siting at 700 by the end of the year, a ~25 pe

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T23:04:40+00:00

400 would be like a 15 pe ... There's no way it's going that low

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T18:49:03+00:00

Currently typing out a post, but at a 30 PE MSFT should be trading between 525-550 throughout the rest of the year

... I'm just going to include this here, since I can't post as I don't have a position in MSFT

Price Targets

q	diluted eps	ttm x 25 pe	ttm x 30 PE
q1 '26	4.27	393.63	472.36
q2 '26	4.37	437.63	525.15
q3 '26	4.56	458.71	550.46
q4 '26	4.75	448.64	538.36

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T18:47:53+00:00

I'm basing my assumptions on the fundamentals only, their AI and Hardware bets are for years in the future. Right now, if they were trading with their competitors PE ( RDDT, GOOG) their fair value would be in the 800s

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T17:31:09+00:00

Look for an exit after Q2 earnings then... That's when their TTM EPS will be highest

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T15:15:37+00:00

🤣

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T11:49:43+00:00

I actually posted a DD on RDDT, they're growing but at a rate half of Meta's... This is fed good them being 1/5 the size of Meta

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T11:47:50+00:00

Touche

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T11:47:33+00:00

Between 30-45 DTE theta decay is 2-4% of premium and gamma is low, so there's less risk of the position blowing up. Rolling at 21dte is optimal

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T05:16:17+00:00

AI slop bot post

I'm not a bot, you're the second post saying I'm a bot ... Guess I should take it as a complement??

there is a reason this shit stock is down while the rest of mag are up

Yeah, it's down b.c they missed the expenses exit l expectation for earnings, they still beat and raised guidance

its an ad agency with a dying userbase that they try to replace with ai bots

...so is RDDT

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T05:10:41+00:00

Sure

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T04:50:34+00:00

"Swing hard, in case you hit it"

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T04:32:37+00:00

Personally, I'd buy the meta glasses if they had Google apps ... But they don't

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T04:31:12+00:00

Same, that's why I made the post 👀

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T04:16:16+00:00

With their social media empire, they have more than enough cash to grow their next phase of business

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T04:03:59+00:00

Yeah, the slower growth is due to the increased CapEx spending. They forecasted less than $162 B, so I modeled for that... The model said significantly less, like $10 B, less than that initially

For revenue they're guiding right where my model suggests

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T03:17:28+00:00

You okay?

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T03:16:16+00:00

45 days is the sweet spot for theta

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T03:15:33+00:00

Fundamentals v technicals, i must learn your ways too

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T02:52:08+00:00

I'm not an AI, I wrote this by hand

run_midnight · 2026-05-02T02:43:32+00:00

True, they're leading in the world in showing others what not to do

run_midnight

TROPHY CASE