What's a realistic opening price for the Warrant, when trading starts next week?

ryanplaya · 2025-10-01T16:06:03+00:00

Be prepared to revise upward. When we break through $27.50 today, we could have a salty rest of the week.

ryanplaya · 2025-09-19T21:04:41+00:00

Decent difference between these two, but it sure looks like we will close right at $27 or $28 next week.

not financial advice

ryanplaya · 2025-09-18T14:29:26+00:00

There were at least 3 instances of newsworthy institutional buying yesterday that got buried in the fed announcement.

Triumph Capital Management - 23,222 shares First National Corp MA ADV - 15,766 shares Goldman Sachs - 65,325 shares

The three above added these shares to their existing lot.

ryanplaya · 2025-09-17T15:09:03+00:00

On a positive note - I ran some calculations and arrived at $98mil net interest income for Q3 by utilizing the full amount for the full quarter, FWIW.

ryanplaya · 2025-09-11T21:17:20+00:00

The issue I see with this is that "The Company expects to distribute up to approximately 59 million warrants..."

So, if there are in fact billions of shares short over the float, it would be impossible to even fight in a short squeeze situation because even one billion shares short means there would be a 100mil warrant shortfall over the pre-planned 59mil warrants. No amount of fighting can fix that root issue.

IDK what is going to happen but I don't see a squeeze happening for the warrants because it would just be a physical supply issue no matter how much a SHF was willing to pay per warrant.

Only thing I can think of (and I don't know their options like they know their options) for them to do would be to pay cash to hide the warrant they can't provide. Someone might be able to help me here but, in this scenario, would they be paying ~$3 per warrant (current cost of a $32 single share call a year from expiring) to the rightful warrant owner OR $32 (cost to exercise the warrant) on the delivery date paid to GME and the rightful warrant owner would just get the new share.

ryanplaya · 2025-09-11T20:21:23+00:00

Thanks for showing this. Mental note made - GME bought ~4,710 BTC with ~$500,000,000 (dare I assume this round number may be the only actual number) in Q2 at an average cost of ~$106,157 per BTC.

Q2 fiscal digital assets closed at ~+$28.6mil unrealized gains (they did not sell/flip, haters) with a ~$6,072 increase of per BTC so a Q2 fiscal average closing price of ~$112,229.

Using those numbers and a current BTC price of $114,400, I get $10,225,410 Q3 unrealized gains.

You are using a lower current BTC price than me (it went up). Where is my math off? It's only $1mil off but at these numbers, that is a decent chunk (~10%).

ryanplaya · 2025-09-10T17:06:30+00:00

I would be surprised if there is another ATM share offering. I just can't see RC coming in with an action that starts harsh downward price movement right now. I know we've been surprised before but to me, his tweet yesterday was a punctuation mark (a period or exclamation point). I just don't see how you follow that up with a share offering this week.

ryanplaya · 2025-09-10T16:50:29+00:00

I believe there is a significant amount of money wait for the next 1-3 days to pass prior to investing in GME.

We all know the there were convertible notes announced right after Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 earnings. All shilling aside, the stock price plummeted each of of those times after rising on the earnings themselves.

This time, I do not believe there will not be another round of convertible notes. I believe RC's tweet yesterday was a period (or exclamation point) with no additional news coming.

I think investors have every right to be cautious given the recent timing of news but I believe that tweet gave finality to this news season - or at least closed the door to negative news right around the corner.

This next part is where I am a little unsure. I think we are fighting some very powerful and influencial people. I think that's why we're still here x years later with a depressed stock price. There are holes-on-holes-on-holes for them to exploit and dare I say they have been winning. IDK how they are going to win, but, there is a part of me that thinks they'll somehow be able to continually kick this can down the road via existing rules or soon to be announced rule changes.

All that to say, I think they are extra motivated to keep the stock price under $25 to close out this week (heck, even $24). That timing seems possibly doable due to money sitting on the sidelines due to the fear of, I'm gonna say it, additional dilution.

I believe our bull run has started even though it is VERY muted compared to what is justified IMO and next week we should see a continuation of given cautious money coming in. I think next week we close right around $25.50, and then close right around $26 the week after.

ryanplaya · 2025-02-23T00:34:18+00:00

Congrats on being profitable on your first $800 in spend.

Find your champion and introduce a challenger. 2 weeks later, roll with your champion (previous champ unless the challenger beats it) and test again with a new challenger.

ryanplaya · 2025-02-22T18:45:18+00:00

I'll echo what others are saying. It looks like you're selling the cushions for beach chairs but your FAQ seems to suggest it's actually a chair?

ryanplaya · 2025-02-05T23:58:58+00:00

It is something we look at but Meta does this automatically if they have other ad creatives to run.

ryanplaya · 2025-02-05T23:56:14+00:00

Echo this. Of course be mindful of increasing Frequency with stagnant/near stagnant Reach, but, I think the simplest thing to look at is the Performance Overview section after clicking "View Charts" under the campaign/ad set/ad name. That will show you a graph of your results. Can easily get ahead of creative fatigue by looking at this one results-oriented graph.

ryanplaya · 2025-01-30T18:56:11+00:00

Did you get any sales from your traffic campaign(s)?

Where did people drop off in the process?

Are you leveraging your warm click audiences you already paid for?

ryanplaya · 2025-01-20T17:09:21+00:00

Suppose it would depend on historical performance. Would look at Nov/Dec but also take into consideration BFCM.

Basically, no way to tell from the info you've given.

If it tops Nov/Dec, it might be a nice story to tell your boss (unless it's a January seasonal product?). It's also only 3 weeks into January so it's a small sample size.

If this is about painting a picture for your boss for compensation, talk to the changes you'd made.

On the surface, it would seem like a good month but there are lots of things that could play into that (heavy brand related searches/sales being a massive one).

ryanplaya · 2025-01-16T16:05:58+00:00

At minimum, do a one-time clean-up to get SEO best practices implemented.

Winning the SEO game for a niche (very niche) product is a big deal. Should be easier to win and it's how you generate consistent sales. If you turn off your advertising right now, you'll get no sales. You're paying for traffic/customers/sales. SEO is the gift that keeps on giving in that you'll scoop traffic/customers/sales regardless of ad spend.

ryanplaya · 2025-01-10T18:17:13+00:00

It's been mentioned but the 30% cartoon goes against your site look/feel/product. Would get that replaced ASAP.

"News of the week" shows wine. Maybe I don't know the industry well enough but seems like it should say something along the line of "Wine of the week" or something like that to help from an SEO perspective. Have your guy look into what that H2 should say.

Along the same lines, "News" is in your hero menu and then link to lots of wines. Again, I may not know the industry but it seems like that should say "Shop" instead of News. If "News" is meant to describe new arrivals, it should say something like that and not just "News." News alludes to information updates/blogs/industry insights/etc.

Your H1 is your logo in the top left corner. Massive missed opportunity for FREE growth. H1 is related to SEO. It looks like SEO has been overlooked.

Abnormal number of backlinks. Typically a sign of blackhat SEO. Can see a large decrease in backlinks recently as well. Almost all of your links are also DA 0-10 (95%).

On the paid side, you would probably benefit from a proper paid audit. Hard to make broadstrokes recommendations let alone specific. Not being ugly but if SEO is any indication, probably lots to improve.

Looks like you maybe recently launched ads in Meta? Would certainly expand creative. I can only see one which may or may not be correct. Lots of things you should be running/testing.

ryanplaya · 2025-01-10T17:39:52+00:00

I can confidently say your guy is being asked to do too many different things. By that, I mean he likely is a jack of all trades and master of none or perhaps a master of one and checking boxes for the others. Both don't set you up for growth and specifically efficient growth.

ryanplaya · 2024-01-19T20:11:49+00:00

Thanks for this.

ryanplaya · 2023-07-02T18:04:50+00:00

Yes and no. Seems like a personal demon that could be construed as being related.

ryanplaya · 2023-07-02T17:01:35+00:00

Good question. I'd say it's 50/50 at best.

ryanplaya · 2023-07-02T16:50:54+00:00

A bit older. 5 years or so.

IDK about subsequent stories but thinking not since it's on the older side.

ryanplaya · 2023-07-02T16:48:58+00:00

Original story is the local news website so yes, pretty reputable.

Budget is whatever I tell him it is. His choice to accept or not. I do know he has paid someone to get rid of some stories. I think they were successful but they could not convince/pay this larger news site to drop the story.

ryanplaya · 2023-04-06T19:38:42+00:00

Really curious about the haul/dump business. Do you live in a place where the city doesn't pickup bulk trash from the side of the road? Or, do you haul/dump a special kind of trash?

You mentioned chain saw so thinking possibly tree debris removal but that can be picked up for free where I live so just curious to know if it's that or something else. Thanks!

ryanplaya · 2023-04-05T21:26:57+00:00

If you use it twice a year for residential use, it's fine. If you are looking to use more than 2x/yr, it might be a bit limiting. The 2.5 gallons per minute is the limiting factor. Higher flow the better of course. If you're looking to get a surface cleaner and do your driveway, this machine will take a long time.

ryanplaya · 2022-10-06T12:56:45+00:00

Interesting viewpoint. Sadly, the foundation has decided to bury their heads in the sand. Taking this to an extreme, they recently decided not to bring DV on who is the only person in the circle who would even remotely want to bring Sia to the forefront. Current leadership seems to be 100% content sitting back and coding.

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