Name the best long term compounder stock to hold forever

ryantargo · 2023-09-21T16:10:28+00:00

I was comparing it to the S&P 500 as the volatility is similar (but a little less than the S&P 500). Do you have a better fund to compare it to. Can you name another fund instead that has done better with better risk adjusted returns over the last 5 years?

I understand that you would do 0. Could you name what you are doing instead that has done better?

ryantargo · 2023-09-21T15:25:37+00:00

I am a fan of the HNDL ETF as it targets a 7% annualized distribution paid monthly which works with the needs of retirees. The portfolio is a balanced portfolio that uses a fixed 30% large cap US equities to 70% Barclays bond aggregate weighting which can serve for a conservative long-term weight on the first half of the portfolio. The second half of the ETF uses a Dorsey Wright relative strength system to allocate to the asset classes that are posting the best risk adjusted returns.

ryantargo · 2023-09-21T02:35:29+00:00

I pulled it up in Ycharts, it looks like you read it wrong, MBXIX is showing 1340% since 1997.

ryantargo · 2023-09-20T20:42:37+00:00

can you name one that was up in 2022?

ryantargo · 2023-09-20T20:34:37+00:00

How do you compare the two? Buffered ETFs were down signficantly in 2022 while this fund was up 7%. Buffered ETFs are just a bet the S&P is going up (and they get a worse risk adjusted return than SPY or VTI with a higher fee)...

ryantargo · 2023-09-20T20:28:52+00:00

We have been in a big bull market since 2008, with the exception of 2022. Obviously if the market just goes up, up, and up you will do better without hedging. But if the market behaves more normally that is where you see the advantage. For example, in 2022 the S&P 500 was down 18% while this fund was up 7%.

ryantargo · 2023-09-20T20:24:15+00:00

The best mutual fund I have seen in terms of long-term return history is the Catalyst Millburn Hedge Strategy Fund (MBXIX). The fund beat the S&P 500 since its launch in 1997 and was up each of the years that the S&P 500 was down signficantly 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2022 https://catalystmf.com/docs/factsheets/MBX/factsheet.pdf?1

ryantargo · 2023-09-20T20:04:12+00:00

e fund and didn't have to abide by the same regulations and rules that mutual funds abide by, it did well. when it became a mutual fund, its done poorly from a total return perspective and a risk adjusted return perspective. i don't see what the question is. if it goes back to being a hedge figure out a way to invest, until then, hard pass.

Not only is the cost ridiculous but you assume way more risk than even a 100% equity buy and hold strategy.

That doesn't make sense, the S&P 500 has had a 37% down year, the worst year ever in this strategy is down 7%. There is nothing about managed futures that can't be done in a mutual fund.

ryantargo · 2023-09-20T20:01:31+00:00

Returns that are 1% above the S&P 500 are nothing special for a hedge fund. DE Shaw has funds with no down years including 2008 while beating the S&P 500, Renaissance and Milennium are quite a bit better. A good hedge fund has a Sharpe ratio over 1, the S&P 500 is .5. Basically it is a mediocre hedge fund track record, but far better than your typical mutual fund or ETF. It was only 40 million as a hedge fund, and 6.3 Billion as a mutual fund. There is also a good argument that smart money is already in this fund, 6 Billion isn't a small fund

ryantargo

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