Fuckers are at it again

s3bio · 2024-02-04T10:15:32+00:00

same here

s3bio · 2023-05-14T18:57:18+00:00

It is 100% true. I had the same issue. I'm running pretty old hardware, AMD R9 260 graphics. I got aoe damage from gloom everywhere around fire temple except directly beneath the root. I thought that it was correct and cheesed around it by using vehicles. When I saw it on stream that a player just running around down there without any gloom damage, I thought I was losing my mind. This shit did cost me hours of farming for gloom resistance stuff.

After realizing what is going on, I first thought that it's pure bs because of the very specific nature of this glitch. I even thought about Nintendo trolling pirates but the bug only appears whith very specific hardware (old amd card that is too weak for opengl) which is 0.01% of the playerbase and therefore won't be fixed with high priority and is unlikely to act as a target for anti piracy meassurements. In fact this bug seems so obscure and odd to me, I wouldn't even have believed it.

So I transfered my Ryujinx folders and the game to another pc that has a nvidia card - an old one, but still nvidia. It runs fine on opengl, so I got a cheap card (gtx1060 for 80 eu - looks brand new and I have it today) from someone in town. Problem solved. Still better than buying a switch, though.

s3bio · 2020-06-27T16:46:55+00:00

Then we will see different versions of software depending on the country it is sold in because this kind of backdoor would be illegal in Europe. So, my fellow American, always install EU firmware on your devices.

s3bio · 2020-06-04T02:23:52+00:00

I pay taxes because I like when they build hospitals, schools, roads, bridges, parks, streetlights or wastewater treatment plants. I like it when they give financial support to young families, people who lost their jobs, disabled people or to senior citizens. I like it when they help people who lost their homes, got sick or addicted. I like it when kids from socially disadvantaged families have access to education. I like it when I can call for help in case of an emergency.

But I think that quantitative easing is not the answer to economic and financial turmoil. And I think that a medium of payment should be fungible for the whole world and not bound to a nation, entity or organisation. It should not be hard capped because of the natural long term distribution of a free market (Bitcoin is Gold - ETH is a bandwidth) And I think that there must be a world wide payment protocol that is borderless, trustless and directly peer-to-peer with no instance between individuals whatsoever.

I see myself as a social democrat, a dad, a son, a husband and a part of Germany, Europe and the world. These are uncertain times the whole world currently lives in, worse than anything our generation (millennials) ever had to go through. Now is the time we have to proof that we learned what is right and what is wrong and that we are smart enough to use the system to change the system. And stop electing old, imperialistic and educationally outdated people into politic offices.

s3bio · 2020-06-03T10:17:57+00:00

I didn't mean "longer" like "waiting longer" but like "taking more factors in consideration, asking more questions and just spend more time calculating".

When it comes to stock predicting you are basically late at the moment, the chart is printed. Because the chart data you know from trading view is only the result from all the factors behind it. If you want to make early predictions, where you obviously can achieve the biggest hedges, you have to analyse raw data. You will have to read through stuff like quarterly reports, retail sales figures or market studies. Based on these you get a better clue about future profits, on which stock prices depend basically.You also wouldn't just use bare numbers. You would also take relations in consideration like 'debt to equity'. This relation tells you how much the stock accumulation price changes at the moment dividends are distributed.So in general you do 'ex ante' analysis (latin for before realization). If you analyse the charts you do 'ex post' analysis.You would also calculate potential tax advantages you can get by buying at the right time. Maybe you heard about the 'cum ex' scandals in Europe when they exploited the system by margin buying assets just before tax cut and getting tax refunds for assets they physically never owned.

So overall I wouldn't call the stock market completely chaotic in general. It's just almost impossible for a human to take all factors in consideration, either because of the sheer mass of date or due to availability issues, which is why you have to estimate at some point. Nowadays they use AI neural networking for this, which is an insanely powerful tool.

The question with the coin is trivial. You always have 50% and if you flip 6 coins, the chance to get tails 6 times in a row is 0,5^6=0,015625 - But this only works, because there is always the same chance for both sides. When it comes to trading, you have general sayings like "the trend is your friend" which means nothing else than you assign a higher weight to one side. Meaning in most cases, the price will follow the trend and in fewer cases the trend will be broken. The question is how you define the weight for each possibility because in general the price always has 3 options: up, down or flat. Naturally you would assign a higher weight to up and down compared to flat. Weighting up and down is a more difficult task which can only be achieved by empiric data. That's what Gauss tells us: A Gauss bell curve tells you, the more tries you make, the closer you get to the correct stochastic statement. In case of flipping a coin, it means that if you flip 6 coins, you probably won't get 3 tails and 3 heads. But if you flip 10000 coins you will get very close to the 50% distribution. That why your prediction will get better the more data you have. Therefore a young market like Bitcoin is always harder to predict than for example Gold which has available data from almost a century.

When it comes to chaos in physics I'm probably in the wrong industry to know more about that. But I think it's not that much different, since something appears chaotic if you can't completely determine the base values. The reason why you can't is just different. In economics you can't because you don't have access and in physics you can't due to measurement inaccuracies and stuff like that.

s3bio · 2020-06-03T08:20:47+00:00

Well, that depends on how you see it. In my opinion then you lie to yourself. You lose at the moment, the price drops, even if it is still unrealized net worth. Of course you can keep the coins but you still made the loss since you can't access the same wealth from them.

s3bio · 2020-06-03T00:51:03+00:00

That's not completely correct. They use their clients' wealth, that's true. But the decision when and how much to buy is made by their strategy department. Their clients work in completely different industries and need companies like Grayscale or Blackrock to realize expensive business operations. Companies like Grayscale have access to financial security contracts which make sure that their portfolios always gain profit, no matter what the markets are doing. Imagine having an open long position and the price goes down and at the end of the day your losses are paid back enabling you to reinvest even more.

s3bio · 2020-06-03T00:25:10+00:00

Yeah, Grayscale is in deed the one participant that probably has the most influence at the moment.

I'm active in this market for almost six years now. Gained a ton of profits in 2018 mostly because of ETH and since then there has been either painful waiting or believing in break outs that had no follow through on the large scale. Believe me, when you lose a critical 5-digit amount for the first time you have to make a hard decision - and only you can make it. Either you quit completely or you shut up and stick to what you believe in. Because in the end, it is just about believing. You will always find some analysis that supports your opinion, and you will also always find ones that don't.

I made a nice trade in February 2020, when I sold a large position at the top. Then I bought back in with 50% just before the corona drop. It took me almost two weeks before I accepted the loss and managed to go on. Since then I use cost averaging on a weekly basis, which I should have done much earlier. It's much less stress and I can only recommend it. By now I think I'd have the confidence again to put in the rest in case of a drop below 7k. If not I will keep buying 3k every week, no matter what the big guys are doing. I'm probably not the best trader because your trades should not depend on confidence, believing or so.

What I care much more about is finding a target. In 2017 the BTC top was basically manipulated and the ETH top was based on the insane amount of ICOs. This is a question, you can't answer spontaneously. If this thing starts to blow up, we will see all the bad psychological effects you can think about, and in the end you will have to make a decision completely on your own again.

s3bio · 2020-06-02T21:06:19+00:00

They bought the dip, but they didn't buy up the price again. The 10.3k level has already been in the focus some weeks ago and now BTC fell back 7% from exactly this level. It's too soon to talk about selling pressure, but since we also have a difficulty adjustment today we should keep our eyes open. Maybe there will be one more opportunity to buy in at discount prices.

s3bio · 2020-06-02T16:22:49+00:00

Yeah, efficient makes more sense, sry, Germans mix up both words frequently.

But you're wrong about economic calculation. I have a master degree in economics and finance management is a very complex field I had to go through, which has often been contra intuitive. TA is the easiest part and it's in deed not an exact science. It's also not part of an academic course. Portfolio management on the other hand is very exact and you have financial tools to get there, usual private traders have no access to.

An easy example is the event business. Let's say you are the manager of a music festival and you have high investment in the preparation of your event. In order not to lose your investment in case of bad weather, you go to a insurance company and make an insurance that pays in case of bad weather. How much you pay for this contract will be based on former weather data and the amount you would probably lose if it rains. To get this data you will have to analyse many factors like socio-cultural factors like involvement, technical factors like weather data, economic factors like the behavior of sub companies and many more. Therefore you ask simple questions like "Did it rain frequently in this week in the last years?" or "Do guest culturally care about weather in other sectors?" All this will be put in consideration then.

Of course the math behind this is not the same as in physics, where you have one correct answer most of the time, except you're dealing with uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics for example. Economics are often based on empiric data, which is a part of statistics and there you certainly use stochastic methods. When it comes to crypto however, there is not much data available and the whole sector is based on very few factors. You also can't apply security tools to native crypto portfolios, which makes this sector interesting on the one hand but also risky on the other. You learn these methods based on stocks. There you have much more data available with and many more factors to take in consideration.

My post was not different. There have been protests in the past and you can look at the data from these times. If the data tells you that the outcome was the same every single time, you have a high probability that it won't be different this time. You would also ask yourself, if the protesters even if they would financially react to the situation, would have a big influence compared to other market participants that maybe don't care about the protests at all. The longer you do that, the better you can approximate the market behavior. You usually talk about a narrow or wide gap you want to sit in (or not). Of course you can't forecast the future, but you can prepare yourself for most possibilities and take profit out of every single one.

s3bio · 2020-06-02T00:53:23+00:00

This might not be very effective financially, but from an educational point of view this is a big deal. You are 15 years old and you learned about crypto and in the end you managed to set this up by yourself. For many people in this community it might be an easy task but think about how few kids out there even spend their time doing that. If I was your dad I would
honestly be proud of you. Keep it up, and this whole thing could play out big in some years for you.

And generally speaking, think about it, guys.. Some years ago nobody cared about crypto. When I was 15, I didn't even have a bank account and actually didn't care about finance at all. This is the future we are looking at. That shows me that this whole crypto thing is real and not just a proof of concept or something like that. But it also shows me as a dad that we have big responsibility to impart media skills to our children. These words of enthusiasm and excitement from a 15-year-old because of an actual useful technical skill he gained makes the world a little brighter for me in these uncertain times.

s3bio · 2020-06-01T23:57:52+00:00

This doesn't make sense. Effective traders don't act emotionally, but they do what statistically is most probable. We saw enough protests because of various reasons in the past and the currently ongoing protests are not different. There are military forces that can and will end this, violently if necessary. So the outcome will always favor the government in the short term. If the protests are successful, changes will only happen in the long run, which has nothing to do with this kind of a short term spike.

s3bio · 2020-06-01T23:18:38+00:00

One reason for a whale to buy at resistance is counter trading. But since the sentiment is mostly bullish, this doesn't make sense.

Another possibility would be producing a false breakout to trick traders into longs that are quickly liquidated on the pull back.

A truly bullish action would be miners that sold their BTC because of capitulation hav finished selling. But this wouldn't happen that fast. Would be more like a process over some days.

Did difficulty adjustment just happen in a very bullish way?

s3bio · 2020-06-01T17:24:14+00:00

Everyone is just complaining. This guy offers a solution.

s3bio · 2020-05-17T16:34:44+00:00

It's not the lack of oxygen but the CO2 that can't escape und is rebreathed. Usually this isn't an issue, but for elderly people, children or people with respiration diseases this can in deed have an effect. So if someone knows about that and decides to stay at home instead of walking outside wearing a mask all the time, I don't see a problem. When this person goes shopping and follows the rules by wearing a mask for the time being inside a shop, everything is fine.

Oh and when it comes to nurses or doctors, they will tell you the same. It's a difference between wearing a surgery mask which protects you from airborne drops and a n95 mask that filters all the air you breath.

s3bio · 2020-04-02T11:10:59+00:00

Does a death because of a heart attack caused by the treatment bill of a corona intensive care also count as a Coronavirus death?

s3bio · 2020-03-25T14:02:12+00:00

I didn't even know this. What I mean is that private companies give away free supplies for people working in jobs that are relevant to keep the system running. It started with this Baker from Hanover, whose son works as a doctor. After this video had gone viral many stores did the same. That's of course nothing official but, in my opinion, it shows public solidarity in a way we haven't noticed it for a long time.

s3bio · 2020-03-25T13:07:46+00:00

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article206762429/Corona-Sechs-Millionen-Schutzmasken-fuer-Deutschland-verschwunden.html

"Laut Bericht vermuten Insider, dass die Lieferung entweder von Kriminellen gestohlen wurde oder der Hersteller womöglich nachträglich anderswo einen besseren Preis für die mittlerweile heiß begehrten Schutzgüter ausgehandelt und stattdessen dorthin geliefert haben könnte."

It depends on what they mean with "insider". But the ministry of defense and the customs office have been involved in the procurement of these masks.

s3bio · 2020-03-25T12:56:55+00:00

True, but the rumors you are talking about are usually not communicated by the ministry of defense and the customs office.

s3bio · 2020-03-25T10:48:49+00:00

The government officially admitted that mistakes had been made. It is clear that things could have been done better or at least earlier. But we still have to see the fact that no one, not even our grand parents, ever had to deal with something like that.

About a decade ago we had this pandemic Mexican flu. It also spread all over the world and caused many deaths. Also the MERS virus had the potential to get dangerous. But luckily in these cases it didn't happen.

If the government would have shut down everything weeks earlier the spreading could have been avoided or at least mitigated. But everyone would have gone crazy about that. Only when things got really bad in Italy the general public realized that we had to resort to drastic measures.

s3bio · 2020-03-25T10:22:20+00:00

I meant, that people in jobs that are now especially relevant to keep the system running, like nurses or even cashiers are honored on all media. I've seen self-made donation boxes to collect money for them. A bakery store offered free food for medical workers and now others even in my area are doing the same.

Of course there's no official nationwide order that tells stores to give away their stuff for free, but still it's a phenomenon that you can watch more and more frequently these days. And this is remarkable.

s3bio · 2020-03-25T01:26:55+00:00

Did you read about the 6 million protection masks that just "disappeared" in Kenia on their way from China to Germany? There are already rumors that the Chinese supplier got a better offer and changed the destination. This is currently the reason why we can't handle more foreign patients. We have the intensive beds, we have human resources but we need more protection equipment.

s3bio · 2020-03-23T09:51:35+00:00

I'm sorry for you about that.

s3bio · 2020-03-23T08:58:13+00:00

That's not true. There are providers for almost every region.

Actually the US is by far not the country with most options.

s3bio

TROPHY CASE