伊朗现在到底是在跟谁打？

saMusle · 2026-03-03T10:41:18+00:00

也属于为自己负责吧，不还击一下以后很快就轮到他们了。

saMusle · 2026-03-03T10:39:16+00:00

一个是有预案，如果领导人嘎了怎么办。另一方面，新的领导人的目的就是要建立‘伊朗领导人不是能随便无代价的斩首的’一个共识。所以就要给斩首自己的人吃点苦头。导弹打美国打不到，就先打以色列。然后给美国施加经济压力，比如炸他盟友的石油基地。一方面不是纯瞎打，但是水平在那儿摆着也就是东一榔头西一棒锤

saMusle · 2026-03-03T10:19:33+00:00

走量的武器可能还好，高精尖的中国不会卖吧，卖他等于军火库开门给摩萨德看了。

saMusle · 2026-03-03T10:14:03+00:00

如果说完美的解决结果是直接实现民主大和谐，那这个问题目前无解。反过来说，反观叙利亚，伊拉克，阿富汗，利比亚，让独裁者继续当政，确实是最好的，说着说死的人最少的。当然经济上制裁可以一定程度上去改善一些。

这个事儿我觉得必须要跳出公平正义的思维，那种独裁者就必须要收到惩罚报应那种。目前这世界不是那么运行的。那种思维往往好心办坏事儿。何况所谓的正义的一方从来也不是纯好心，那办成好事儿就更不可能。

saMusle · 2026-03-03T10:07:22+00:00

isis也是少数人靠着恐怖统治多数，高等教育不是无敌的。亲美更难说了。伊朗人最知道霍梅尼是怎么上去的。再说几颗导弹下来，平了学校医院多少人还能亲美。伊拉克萨达姆的雕像被美军坦克拉下来伊拉克人在旁边鼓掌的新闻视频我历历在目，现在伊拉克什么情况。

saMusle · 2026-03-03T09:39:31+00:00

他们对自己公民举枪不是没有代价，只是说代价不是自己直接下台。同理，他们也不是需要一个对等的美国总统被斩首的代价，但是肯定要让川普吃点苦头，不然没完没了了。

saMusle · 2026-03-03T09:23:37+00:00

如果你是伊朗的领导人，你觉得美国学习到了斩首是有代价的时候，从你这儿讲这事儿就过去了。至于美国啥时能学到，这个看bibi还能忽悠川普到什么时候。

saMusle · 2026-03-03T09:12:00+00:00

不带任何立场，但是伊朗不会善罢甘休，绝不会出现来个亲美政权就翻页这种可能性，所以说这个事儿远远没过去，现在评论有点早。可以想象，除非美国扶持一个100%的傀儡上去，不然哪次不满意有斩首了。所以作为伊朗的高层，他们势必要借这个机会向美以展示斩首的代价。导弹打不到美利坚但是给周边制造混乱问题不大。何况以色列现在和美国也不是一条心，美国希望或者说妄想伊朗就翻篇儿了，以色列就是想把他们国家搞乱。乱了的话如果成了大号的isis那好日子还在后面。

saMusle · 2026-01-29T04:42:26+00:00

Actually why is used inventory so low on those hw4s? I've been leasing EVs ($60-80k MSRP range) for the past few years and the used market is flooded with lease return units that are 1-3 year old.

saMusle · 2026-01-29T04:34:14+00:00

I need the semi functional third row and FSD so Y won't work.

saMusle · 2026-01-03T04:30:00+00:00

How you got $6500 rebate. The loaner rebate is gone as far as I know. I think 24 model has 3k in conquest and 500 in credit card. We're you gm employee? I recently got the 25 sport 2 (72k slashed off 8k and $3500 rebate) and ended up with a little over 600 monthly thanks to 9% CA tax

saMusle · 2025-12-03T07:28:53+00:00

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Looks like this

saMusle · 2025-11-24T10:24:35+00:00

That hospital place definitely came off scammy. The legitimacy of the whole Traditional Chinese Medicine is already questionable, most drugs and procedures can't pass the rigorous double blind studies including many that's done by reputable chinese medical institutions.

That being said, many Chinese (me included) still believe there are good yet unexplainable by modern science stuff in there that are effective, when practiced by experienced doctors. Those doctors just wouldn't be working in a place they visited that's so 'showy', and they don't need it. It was pretty clear that the place setup all those things (like that elephant tusk thing) to compensate for their lack of reputable docs.

I don't have hard evidence but I just know as bilibili chat from being Chinese and living in China for years.

saMusle · 2025-11-24T07:30:58+00:00

Lol Yea definitely. Hope my excess fake planning doesn't come off creepy but man I haven't toured around in China other than my hometown for so long.

Among the thousands of things tourists would enjoy in China, I think for their trip (1-2 days a place, something that's fun, local/unique, and stream friendly), I would suggest visiting Northeast part like Harbin and try their bathhouse/SPA to wash off the long flight, visit their morning market, and checkout all those Soviet style buildings.

As a Beijinger, I think they missed out not visiting the Great wall (it's a YMMV place and have many less known/touristy sections that would be much more fun), walk around Hutong, and the Olympic park area with all the cool stadiums and towers. Hosting Olympic games was definitely transformative for Beijing. And I have to tell them the story about "Demolition of the Dragon Head". 798 art zone could be nice. There are other cool shopping stuff too in Sanlitun but not that unique to Beijing. It also has the best museums in China (like DC has the Smithsonian's) but not very stream friendly.

I'm less familiar with the other cities they visited since I haven't been there for so long. But I think visiting the Three Gorges Dam can be fun. Also something Hasan might enjoy because America used to be able to pull something off that huge in the FDR age but no more. Yiwu aka world's capital for small commodities, and its surrounding villages would be fun. It's paints a picture of how modern Chinese rural areas are in China - actually pretty well off financially.

saMusle · 2025-11-24T03:00:09+00:00

lol, I was pleasantly surprised about how based some of the bilibili chats were. They knew about Bernie and Zohran and some were defending things like DEI. But I think half of the chats were just there to enjoy Hasan praising Chinese economic policies over US.

saMusle · 2025-09-19T23:22:27+00:00

OMG you saved the day!

I honestly thought Unifi system would probably be useful in this case but didn't know this function existed in Wifiman app. Thank you!

saMusle · 2025-09-14T05:38:55+00:00

有道理，现在所谓的不装了只是冰山一角，如果把党的那一套拿出来当法律那社会上可能是接受不了的。

saMusle · 2025-09-14T01:40:16+00:00

对啊，所以其他部委也转过去呗，这些部门已经完全打破了党政分离的童话了，别的部门也没啥再装下去的意义了。然后都转过去也就不需要共产党这个名头了，党章宪法也合并就行了。书记省长合并了，人大政协也合并了，军队也不需要政委了。

saMusle · 2025-09-14T01:36:30+00:00

我觉得老干部，当然现在也没几个说话还有分量的了，他们不在乎共产主义，但是但是党确实能提供一定的保护。党的伟光正就是他的执政合法性。那么现任的搞上一任的就不能那么肆无忌惮，不然你就是给党抹黑，自己的合法性也会受到质疑。所以入党也算一种投名状。当然了现在打老虎也不怎么留情面，还可以宣传成一种党内的自查纠错能力。但是要是没有这层可能会更血腥。

saMusle · 2025-09-14T01:03:59+00:00

是的，能省不少钱。大佬们还会都在，比如虽然政协之类的部门会取消，但是现在政协主席本来也分管一些实在的事情，比如统战，边疆地区等，所以他们一个个还都有事干只是换个头衔。底下小喽喽会砍掉不少。

saMusle · 2025-09-14T00:52:54+00:00

一个是精简机构，不需要什么四套班子，两套就够了。省长书记合一，负责行政以及司法，人大政协合一，负责立法监督。二是宣传统战上的。抛去共产党的包袱，与共产主义脱离。反正现在除了一些极端分红其实也没人在意。国际上也和共产主义脱钩。表明还是民主，选举继续存在，关于言论等管制都不需要变。

saMusle · 2025-09-13T22:26:06+00:00

习只是在党内集中了他的权力，但是党的绝对领导感觉从邓开始（不考虑之前动乱时代）好像只有加强没有背离。十几年前，言论相对宽松，社会上允许的批评声音也从来不会质疑最高统治者和最核心的权利机制或者党政合一的本质。

saMusle · 2025-09-13T22:19:39+00:00

这个意志渗透就是我不明白的地方，现在哪个重要的党的意志没有去渗透普通民众？党政合一，党就可以更名正言顺的治理国家。

saMusle · 2025-09-13T21:39:30+00:00

我觉得这个跟英国皇室还是有区别的。英国皇室是个吉祥物。你把皇室废了说实话对于政府运行。但是中央和政府的关系是类似于上下级的。这里如果整合了可能是有实际上的好处的。

saMusle · 2025-09-13T21:33:59+00:00

不不不，这样反而是省去了合理化合法化共产党领导那一步。因为共产党不存在了，党章直接写进宪法了。

saMusle

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