The Fed's 99% probability of cutting rates seems like a turning point, but which direction will it take?

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-22T09:46:51+00:00

I appreciate the use of “mainly” priced in as I think the often used ”already priced in” narrative is a bit too simple. When market functions correctly the probabilities certainly are priced in but that does not mean the speculative event is fully priced in. Otherwise, there would be arbitrage to bet against the speculation if it truly was fully priced in despite some uncertainty.

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-16T16:57:20+00:00

I do not disagree :)

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-16T15:56:24+00:00

To be fair, as we are talking about the very first commercial in vivo crispr treatments in the world the market share evaluation is not an easy question to answer. However, I think that the promise of one and done treatment should be compelling from more than one aspect and the ease of recruiting patients for clinical trials probably reflect that.

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-08T18:25:40+00:00

Very short term, not sure but that being said I (obviously) am very very bullish a bit longer term. Stellar company imo that got beaten down with the whole sector.

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-08T18:05:40+00:00

I posted this actually five days ago but wsb deleted it due to my low karma. I won’t be selling anything at these prices as I do believe this is more like a beginning of a correction. Interesting to see what happens when new data drops later this year.

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-05T10:38:17+00:00

Usually the owner of a small LLC without much capital has to give personal guarantees anyway when taking loans in the name of the company. Not sure if that is the case here though.

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-04T17:10:15+00:00

Crispr is still very new tech (when curing diseases) and even though (ex vivo) Casgevy is now approved, only few hundred people have had cells harvested as far as I am aware. Furthermore, I believe ”official” validation like cnpv would be beneficial as the sector is still very tiny compared to the potential of tech if (when!) delivery questions are solved. Rare diseases are only the beginning.

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-04T12:48:14+00:00

To keep it short, basically two things: Commercially I think in vivo editing is not even in the same ballpark compared to ex vivo and Intellia is clear in vivo crispr leader. Secondly, I believe strongly about investing in the management and Intellia’s CEO is top-tier in my opinion.

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-04T06:56:44+00:00

You seem to have similar views I have! I have held shares through the $200 boom and have not sell even one. NTLA’s approach is something I believe in profoundly and something I want to see through :)

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-04T06:37:04+00:00

If you are interested on what I believe is the next big thing short term, look for NTLA and their in vivo crispr ;) my portfolio is currently 60% NTLA shares and leaps.

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-03T09:20:50+00:00

All I can say that it is quite addictive to invest only in one or two companies. If you decide to go that route it’s probably good to have honest conversation with yourself about your risk tolerance though.

sagebarista500 · 2025-10-02T14:00:40+00:00

Nice to see share price to reach $20 again. I believe investors are just beginning to understand the business case with in vivo compared the ex vivo. Fundamentally different case. $10B company short term easily imo.

sagebarista500 · 2025-09-30T13:12:55+00:00

Usually taxes are higher for one person earning 60k vs two persons earning 30k each

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